Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to upscale stand level damages by bark beetles as simulated in the hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.41. Comparing EFISCEN simulations including the new bark beetle disturbance module against a 15-year damage time series for Austria showed good agreement at province level (R² between 0.496 and 0.802). A scenario analysis of climate change impacts on bark beetle-induced damages in Austria¿s Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] forests resulted in a strong increase in damages (from 1.33 Mm³ a¿1, period 1990¿2004, to 4.46 Mm³ a¿1, period 2095¿2099). Studying two adaptive management strategies (species change) revealed a considerable time-lag between the start of adaptation measures and a decrease in simulated damages by bark beetle

Differential introgression reveals candidate genes for selection across a spruce (Picea sitchensis × P. glauca) hybrid zone

Differential patterns of introgression between species across ecological gradients provide a fine-scale depiction of extrinsic and intrinsic factors that contribute to the maintenance of species barriers and adaptation across heterogeneous environments. Introgression was examined for 721 individuals collected from the ecological transition zone spanning maritime to continental climates within the Picea sitchensis–Picea glauca contact zone using a panel of 268 candidate gene single nucleotide polymorphisms. Geographic clines showed a strong spatial relationship between allele frequencies and both distance from the ocean along major rivers and mean annual precipitation, indicating a strong role for environmental selection. Interspecific patterns of differentiation using outlier tests revealed three candidate genes that may be targets of long-term divergent selection between the parental species, although contemporary genomic clines within the hybrid zone suggested neutral patterns of introgression for these genes. This study provides a fine-scale analysis of locus-specific introgression, identifying a suite of candidate loci that may be targets of extrinsic or intrinsic selection, with broad application in understanding local adaptation to climate

Mating system variation and assortative mating of sympatric bromeliads (Pitcairnia spp.) endemic to neotropical inselbergs

Premise of the study: The mating system is an important component of the complex set of reproductive isolation barriers causing plant speciation. However, empirical evidence showing that the mating system may promote reproductive isolation in co-occurring species is limited. The mechanisms by which the mating system can act as a reproductive isolation barrier are also largely unknown. Methods: Here we studied progeny arrays genotyped with microsatellites and patterns of stigma–anther separation (herkogamy) to understand the role of mating system shifts in promoting reproductive isolation between two hybridizing taxa with porous genomes, Pitcairnia albiflos and P. staminea (Bromeliaceae). Key results: In P. staminea, we detected increased selfing and reduced herkogamy in one sympatric relative to two allopatric populations, consistent with mating system shifts in sympatry acting to maintain the species integrity of P. staminea when in contact with P. albiflos. Conclusions: Mating system variation is a result of several factors acting simultaneously in these populations. We report mating system shifts as one possible reproductive barrier between these species, acting in addition to numerous other prezygotic (i.e., flower phenology and pollination syndromes) and postzygotic barriers (Bateson–Dobzhansky–Muller genetic incompatibilities)

Polymorphism of postmating reproductive isolation within plant species

Speciation can be viewed as the evolution of reproductive isolation between formerly interbreeding populations. Recent years have seen great advances in our understanding of the genetic mechanisms underlying postmating reproductive isolation during plant speciation. Nevertheless, little is known about the early stages of species divergence and the evolution of reproductive isolation at the within species level. Direct or indirect evidence indicates that intrinsic postzygotic mechanisms are prevalent and often polymorphic among allopatric conspecific populations of plants. We review studies that report direct or indirect evidence for polymorphism of genic (i.e., gene-based) postmating reproductive isolation within species' ranges. Specifically, we focus on three genic mechanisms often held responsible for reproductive isolation between species: Bateson-Dobzhansky-Muller (BDM) incompatibilities and two widespread types of genomic conflict, transmission ratio distortion and cytonuclear interactions. We further highlight the close similarity between reported cases of outbreeding depression among conspecific populations, especially those that correspond to the intrinsic co-adaptation model, and the origin of genetic incompatibilities. This association holds great promise to help improve our understanding of the processes involved in the initial stage of speciation, and it highlights the close (and often overlooked) relationship between evolutionary and conservation biology

Evaluation of a 3-D rockfall module within a forest patch model

Many slopes in the Alps are prone to rockfall and forests play a vital role in protecting objects such as (rail) roads and infrastructure against rockfall. Decision support tools are required to assess rockfall processes and to quantify the rockfall protection effect of forest stands. This paper presents results of an iterative sequence of tests and improvements of a coupled rockfall and forest dynamics model with focus on the rockfall module. As evaluation data a real-size rockfall experiment in the French Alps and two 2-D rockfall trajectories from Austria and Switzerland were used. Modification of the rebound algorithm and the inclusion of an algorithm accounting for the sudden halt of falling rocks due to surface roughness greatly improved the correspondence between simulated and observed key rockfall variables like run-out distances, rebound heights and jump lengths for the real-size rockfall experiment. Moreover, the observed jump lengths and run-out distances of the 2-D trajectories were well within the stochastic range of variation yielded by the simulations. Based on evaluation results it is concluded that the rockfall model can be employed to assess the protective effect of forest vegetation

Limited pollen flow and high selfing rates toward geographic range limit in an Atlantic forest bromeliad

Bromeliaceae is a Neotropical family that evolved ecological key innovations in association with extensive adaptive radiation. Its species present a variety of different mating system strategies varying within and among species, within genera and subfamilies. Also, species with a wide geographical range can display large variation in mating system, reproductive success and genetic diversity. Here we combined data from hand pollinations and genetic analysis to assess outcomes of contemporary gene flow and mating system variation at the range edge of Vriesea gigantea. Results from pollen germination rates showed that this species is cryptically self-incompatible. Hand-pollination experiments and genetic analysis of progeny arrays revealed that V. gigantea has a mixed mating system, with high selfing rates (s = 0.612), and high inbreeding coefficient (F = 0.372). Inbreeding in V. gigantea at southern edge of its distribution range was caused by high levels of selfing rather than by mating among relatives. Moreover, strong pollen pool genetic structure was observed (Φ’FT = 0.671), with an increase from north to south. The parameters observed help us to understand historical and ecological conditions under which V. gigantea has experienced moderate to high levels of selfing in the face of reduced pollen flow from central to peripheral populations due to recent southward range expansion

Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios

BACKGROUND: Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. RESULTS: A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010-2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared if they are managed to maximise standing biomass. Incentives which will increase the standing biomass beyond the increment optimal biomass should therefore be avoided. Mechanisms which will maximise increments and sustainable harvests need to be developed to have substantial amounts of wood which can be used as substitution of non sustainable materials

Unexpected ancestry of Populus seedlings from a hybrid zone implies a large role for postzygotic selection in the maintenance of species

In the context of potential interspecific gene flow, the integrity of species will be maintained by reproductive barriers that reduce genetic exchange, including traits associated with prezygotic isolation or poor performance of hybrids. Hybrid zones can be used to study the importance of different reproductive barriers, particularly when both parental species and hybrids occur in close spatial proximity. We investigated the importance of barriers to gene flow that act early versus late in the life cycle of European Populus by quantifying the prevalence of homospecific and hybrid matings within a mosaic hybrid zone. We obtained genotypic data for 11,976 loci from progeny and their maternal parents and constructed a Bayesian model to estimate individual admixture proportions and hybrid classes for sampled trees, and for the unsampled pollen parent. Matings that included one or two hybrid parents were common, resulting in admixture proportions of progeny that spanned the whole range of potential ancestries between the two parental species. This result contrasts strongly with the distribution of admixture proportions in adult trees, where intermediate hybrids and each of the parental species are separated into three discrete ancestry clusters. The existence of the full range of hybrids in seedlings is consistent with weak reproductive isolation early in the life cycle of Populus. Instead, a considerable amount of selection must take place between the seedling stage and maturity to remove many hybrid seedlings. Our results highlight that high hybridization rates and appreciable hybrid fitness do not necessarily conflict with the maintenance of species integrity

Genetic relationships and variation in reproductive strategies in four closely related bromeliads adapted to neotropical ‘inselbergs': Alcantarea glaziouana, A. regina, A. geniculata and A. imperialis (Bromeliaceae)

Background and Aims Bromeliads (Bromeliaceae) adapted to rock outcrops or ‘inselbergs' in neotropical rain forests have been identified as suitable plant models for studying population divergence and speciation during continental plant radiations. Little is known about genetic relationships and variation in reproductive strategies within and among inselberg-adapted species, yet knowledge of these parameters is important for understanding divergence processes and for conservation planning. Methods Nuclear microsatellites were used to assess the role of clonal reproduction, estimate genetic diversity and explore genetic relationships and variation in reproductive strategies for a total of 15 populations of four closely related Alcantarea inselberg species in south-eastern Brazil: A. glaziouana, A. regina, A. geniculata and A. imperialis. Key Results Clonal propagation is frequent in coastal populations of A. glaziouana and A. regina, but absent in the high-altitude species A. geniculata and A. imperialis. Considerable variation in clonal diversity, gene diversity (He), allelic richness, and Wright's inbreeding coefficient (FIS) exists within and between species of Alcantarea. A Bayesian analysis of coastal inselberg species indicated pronounced genetic structure. A neighbor-joining analysis grouped populations of each species together with moderate bootstrap support, except for the high altitude species A. imperialis. Conclusions The coastal inselberg species A. glaziouana and A. regina tend to propagate asexually via vegetative clonal growth, and both reproductive strategies and breeding systems vary greatly between populations and species of Alcantarea. The microsatellite data indicate a history of hybridization and reticulation involving the high-altitude species A. geniculata and A. imperialis in areas of co-occurrence. The results highlight the need to understand similarities and differences in reproductive strategies both within and between related species for conservation planning and as a basis for understanding evolutionary processes in tropical radiation

Regeneration in gap models: priority issues for studying forest responses to climate change

Recruitment algorithms in forest gap models are examined with particular regard to their suitability for simulating forest ecosystem responses to a changing climate. The traditional formulation of recruitment is found limiting in three areas. First, the aggregation of different regeneration stages (seed production, dispersal, storage, germination and seedling establishment) is likely to result in less accurate predictions of responses as compared to treating each stage separately. Second, the relatedassumptions that seeds of all species are uniformly available and that environmental conditions are homogeneous, are likely to cause overestimates of future species diversity and forest migration rates. Third, interactions between herbivores (ungulates and insect pests) and forest vegetation are a big unknown with potentially serious impacts in many regions. Possible strategies for developing better gap model representations for the climate-sensitive aspects of each of these key areas are discussed. A working example of a relatively new model that addresses some of these limitations is also presented for each case. We conclude that better models of regeneration processes are desirable for predicting effects of climate change, but that it is presently impossible to determine what improvements can be expected without carrying out rigorous tests for each new formulation