Emotionally sustainable change: two frameworks to assist with transition

Earlier research (Leybourne, 2007; Robinson and Griffiths, 2005; Stensaker et al., 2002) has identified that assisting employees to cope with change can be beneficial in ensuring that change initiatives are more effective. This paper considers two frameworks from outside the 'traditional' change literature that can assist in coping with change and that have been recognised for many years, but which are arguably under-utilised in assisting employees through the behavioural, and particularly the emotional journey through organisational change. Bridges' (1991) transition framework and the Kubler-Ross (1969) Grief Cycle are examined in turn, and each is critically appraised to identify the benefits, or otherwise, of what they offer to assist employees to cope with change, and managers to manage that coping element of change management. The outcomes suggest that both frameworks are beneficial to change practitioners, and can assist in supporting employees through the transition from one organisational state to another

Project knowledge into project practice: generational issues in the knowledge management process

This paper considers Learning and Knowledge Transfer within the project domain. Knowledge can be a tenuous and elusive concept, and is challenging to transfer within organizations and projects. This challenge is compounded when we consider generational differences in the project and the workplace. This paper looks at learning, and the transfer of that generated knowledge. A number of tools and frameworks have been considered, together with accumulated extant literature. These issues have been deliberated through the lens of different generational types, focusing on the issues and differences in knowledge engagement and absorption between Baby Boomers, Generation X, and Generation Y/Millennials. Generation Z/Centennials have also been included where appropriate. This is a significant issue in modern project and organizational structures. Some recommendations are offered to assist in effective knowledge transfer across generational types.Accepted manuscrip

"It's all up here": adaptation and improvisation within the modern project

This paper considers organisational improvisation, and in particular, adaptation as a specific component of improvisational work(Miner et al., 2001), and how it may assist in resolving or assisting with some of the challenges surrounding recent shifts in our understanding of project-based management. Examples focus on the use of adaptation to cope with ambiguity and uncertainty, caused by execution in problematic and turbulent organisational environments. The literature on improvisation suggests that adapting previously successful interventions reduces and manages the risk of improvising by engaging with the 'adaptation component of organisational improvisation. This practice assists in ensuring that the additional risk of completely novel activity is avoided. This paper explores adaptation within the project domain, and also unpicks the rhetoric from the reality of adaptation within projects, confirming its benefits, setting out the circumstances where experience informs the practice, and offering readily usable and applicable insights

On Unit Root Tests and the Initial Observation

We consider the power of unit root tests for different deviations of the initial observation from the deterministic component of the series. Following recent work highlighting the relative power performance of extant tests, we propose a new procedure based on a data-dependent weighted average of the standard Dickey-Fuller and Elliott-Rothenberg- Stock tests, with the weight determined by an estimate of the initial observation’s deviation from the deterministics. Simulation of the new test’s power reveals very good performance across different magnitudes of the initial condition. The procedure’s value is further highlighted by application to US producer price inflation.

Steve Leybourne’s reflections on David Hillson’s Risk Doctor briefing

Steve Leybourne's reflections on David Hillson's Risk Doctor briefin

Behaviour of Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests Under Trend Misspecification

We analyse the case where a unit root test is based on a Dickey-Fuller regression whose only deterministic term is a fixed intercept. Suppose, however, as could well be the case, that the actual data generating process includes a broken linear trend. It is shown theoretically, and verified empirically, that under the I(1) null and I(0) alternative hypotheses the Dickey-Fuller test can display a wide range of different characteristics depending on the nature and location of the break.

A powerful test for linearity when the order of integration is unknown [Revised to become No. 07/06 above]

In this paper we propose a test of the null hypothesis of time series linearity against a nonlinear alternative, when uncertainty exists as to whether or not the series contains a unit root. We provide a test statistic that has the same limiting null critical values regardless of whether the series under consideration is generated from a linear I(0) or linear I(1) process, and is consistent against nonlinearity of either form, being asymptotically equivalent to the efficient test in each case. Finite sample simulations show that the new procedure has good size control and offers substantial power gains over the recently proposed robust linearity test of Harvey and Leybourne (2007).Nonlinearity testing; Wald tests; unit root tests; stationarity tests

Summary of reflections on David Hillson’s Risk Doctor briefing

Summary by Viewpoint Section Edito

Is project management the new management 2.0?

This paper considers the evolving nature of project management (PM) and offers a comparison with the evolving nature of management generally. Specifically, we identify a number of management trends that are drawn from a paper that documents a proposed ‘Management 2.0’ model, and we compare those trends to the way in which PM is maturing to embrace the challenges of modern organizational progress.Some theoretical frameworks are offered that assist in explaining the shift from the historically accepted ‘tools and techniques’ model to a more nuanced and behaviorally driven paradigm that is arguably more appropriate to manage change in today’s flexible and progressive organizations, and which provide a more coherent response, both in PM and traditional management, to McDonald’s forces. In addition, we offer a number of examples to robustly support our assertions, based around the development of innovative products from Apple Inc. In using this metaphor to demonstrate the evolution of project-based work, we link PM with innovation and new product development.

U.S. and U.K. Interest Rates 1890 - 1934: New Evidence on Structural Breaks

This paper presents econometric evidence on whether the founding of the Federal Reserve in 1914 caused a structural change from level-stationarity to difference-stationarity in U.S. and U.K. short-term nominal interest rates. We develop new econometric tests that allow for parameter transitions to test for a break of this kind and undertake a grid search analysis of dates and speeds for the change. We find that U.S. nominal interest rates most likely evolved rapidly to difference-stationarity in June 1917. For the U.K. we fail to reject the null that U.K. interest rate series follow a difference stationary process over the entire period 1890-1934. Our analysis differs from previous research on this topic in that we take care to explore statistical uncertainty around parameter estimates, and incorporate higher order dynamics into our econometric analysis.