Mixtures of g-priors in Generalized Linear Models

Mixtures of Zellner's g-priors have been studied extensively in linear models and have been shown to have numerous desirable properties for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. Several extensions of g-priors to Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) have been proposed in the literature; however, the choice of prior distribution of g and resulting properties for inference have received considerably less attention. In this paper, we unify mixtures of g-priors in GLMs by assigning the truncated Compound Confluent Hypergeometric (tCCH) distribution to 1/(1 + g), which encompasses as special cases several mixtures of g-priors in the literature, such as the hyper-g, Beta-prime, truncated Gamma, incomplete inverse-Gamma, benchmark, robust, hyper-g/n, and intrinsic priors. Through an integrated Laplace approximation, the posterior distribution of 1/(1 + g) is in turn a tCCH distribution, and approximate marginal likelihoods are thus available analytically, leading to "Compound Hypergeometric Information Criteria" for model selection. We discuss the local geometric properties of the g-prior in GLMs and show how the desiderata for model selection proposed by Bayarri et al, such as asymptotic model selection consistency, intrinsic consistency, and measurement invariance may be used to justify the prior and specific choices of the hyper parameters. We illustrate inference using these priors and contrast them to other approaches via simulation and real data examples. The methodology is implemented in the R package BAS and freely available on CRAN

On the Use of Cauchy Prior Distributions for Bayesian Logistic Regression

In logistic regression, separation occurs when a linear combination of the predictors can perfectly classify part or all of the observations in the sample, and as a result, finite maximum likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients do not exist. Gelman et al. (2008) recommended independent Cauchy distributions as default priors for the regression coefficients in logistic regression, even in the case of separation, and reported posterior modes in their analyses. As the mean does not exist for the Cauchy prior, a natural question is whether the posterior means of the regression coefficients exist under separation. We prove theorems that provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of posterior means under independent Cauchy priors for the logit link and a general family of link functions, including the probit link. We also study the existence of posterior means under multivariate Cauchy priors. For full Bayesian inference, we develop a Gibbs sampler based on Polya-Gamma data augmentation to sample from the posterior distribution under independent Student-t priors including Cauchy priors, and provide a companion R package in the supplement. We demonstrate empirically that even when the posterior means of the regression coefficients exist under separation, the magnitude of the posterior samples for Cauchy priors may be unusually large, and the corresponding Gibbs sampler shows extremely slow mixing. While alternative algorithms such as the No-U-Turn Sampler in Stan can greatly improve mixing, in order to resolve the issue of extremely heavy tailed posteriors for Cauchy priors under separation, one would need to consider lighter tailed priors such as normal priors or Student-t priors with degrees of freedom larger than one

Real-time head nod and shake detection for continuous human affect recognition

Human affect recognition is the field of study associated with using automatic techniques to identify human emotion or human affective state. A person’s affective states is often communicated non-verbally through body language. A large part of human body language communication is the use of head gestures. Almost all cultures use subtle head movements to convey meaning. Two of the most common and distinct head gestures are the head nod and the head shake gestures. In this paper we present a robust system to automatically detect head nod and shakes. We employ the Microsoft Kinect and utilise discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) as the backbone to a to a machine learning based classifier within the system. The system achieves 86% accuracy on test datasets and results are provided

Using the Chinese version of Memorial Delirium Assessment Scale to describe postoperative delirium after hip surgery

Objective:: Memorial Delirium Assessment Scale (MDAS) assesses severity of delirium. However, whether the MDAS can be used in a Chinese population is unknown. Moreover, the optimal postoperative MDAS cutoff point for describing postoperative delirium in Chinese remains largely to be determined. We therefore performed a pilot study to validate MDAS in the Chinese language and to determine the optimal postoperative MDAS cutoff point for delirium. Methods:: Eighty-two patients (80 ± 6 years, 21.9% male), who had hip surgery under general anesthesia, were enrolled. The Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) were administered to the patients before surgery. The CAM and MDAS were performed on the patients on the first, second and fourth postoperative days. The reliability and validity of the MDAS were determined. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the optimal Chinese version MDAS cutoff point for the identification of delirium. Results:: The Chinese version of the MDAS had satisfactory internal consistency (α = 0.910). ROC analysis obtained an average optimal MDAS cutoff point of 7.5 in describing the CAM-defined postoperative delirium, with an area under the ROC of 0.990 (95% CI 0.977–1.000, P < 0.001). Conclusions:: The Chinese version of the MDAS had good reliability and validity. The patients whose postoperative Chinese version MDAS cutoff point score was 7.5 would likely have postoperative delirium. These results have established a system for a larger scale study in the future

Novel plasmid-mediated colistin resistance gene mcr-3 in Escherichia coli

The mobile colistin resistance gene mcr-1 has attracted global attention, as it heralds the breach of polymyxins, one of the last-resort antibiotics for the treatment of severe clinical infections caused by multidrug-resistant Gramnegative bacteria. To date, six slightly different variants of mcr-1, and a second mobile colistin resistance gene, mcr-2, have been reported or annotated in the GenBank database. Here, we characterized a third mobile colistin resistance gene, mcr-3. The gene coexisted with 18 additional resistance determinants in the 261-kb IncHI2-type plasmid pWJ1 from porcine Escherichia coli. mcr-3 showed 45.0% and 47.0% nucleotide sequence identity to mcr-1 and mcr-2, respectively, while the deduced amino acid sequence of MCR-3 showed 99.8 to 100% and 75.6 to 94.8% identity to phosphoethanolamine transferases found in other Enterobacteriaceae species and in 10 Aeromonas species, respectively. pWJ1 was mobilized to an E. coli recipient by conjugation and contained a plasmid backbone similar to those of other mcr- 1-carrying plasmids, such as pHNSHP45-2 from the original mcr-1-harboring E. coli strain. Moreover, a truncated transposon element, TnAs2, which was characterized only in Aeromonas salmonicida, was located upstream of mcr-3 in pWJ1. This ΔTnAs2-mcr-3 element was also identified in a shotgun genome sequence of a porcine E. coli isolate from Malaysia, a human Klebsiella pneumoniae isolate from Thailand, and a human Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium isolate from the United States. These results suggest the likelihood of a wide dissemination of the novel mobile colistin resistance gene mcr-3 among Enterobacteriaceae and aeromonads; the latter may act as a potential reservoir for mcr-3. IMPORTANCE The emergence of the plasmid-mediated colistin resistance gene mcr-1 has attracted substantial attention worldwide. Here, we examined a colistin-resistant Escherichia coli isolate that was negative for both mcr-1 and mcr-2 and discovered a novel mobile colistin resistance gene, mcr-3. The amino acid sequence of MCR-3 aligned closely with phosphoethanolamine transferases from Enterobacteriaceae and Aeromonas species originating from both clinical infections and environmental samples collected in 12 countries on four continents. Due to the ubiquitous profile of aeromonads in the environment and the potential transfer of mcr-3 between Enterobacteriaceae and Aeromonas species, the wide spread of mcr-3 may be largely underestimated. As colistin has been and still is widely used in veterinary medicine and used at increasing frequencies in human medicine, the continuous monitoring of mobile colistin resistance determinants in colistin-resistant Gram-negative bacteria is imperative for understanding and tackling the dissemination of mcr genes in both the agricultural and health care sectors

Molecular insights into functional differences between mcr-3- and mcr-1-mediated colistin resistance

The global emergence of plasmid-mediated colistin resistance genes mcr-1 and mcr-3 has threatened the role of the “last resort” drug colistin in the defense against infections caused by multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria. However, functional differences between these two genes in mediating colistin resistance remains poorly understood. Protein sequence alignment of MCR-3 and MCR-1 was therefore conducted in Clustal Omega to identify sequence divergence. The molecular recognition of lipid A head group phosphatidylethanolamine and MCR-3 enzyme was studied by homology modeling and molecular docking, with the catalytic mechanism of MCR-3 also being explored. Thr277 in MCR-3 was validated as the key amino acid residue responsible for the catalytic reaction using site-directed mutagenesis and was shown to act as a nucleophile. Lipid A modification induced by the MCR-3 and MCR-1 enzymes was confirmed by electrospray ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Far-UV circular dichroism spectra of the MCR-3 and MCR-1 enzymes suggested that MCR-3 was more thermostable than MCR-1, with a melting temperature of 66.19°C compared with 61.14°C for MCR-1. These data provided molecular insight into the functional differences between mcr-3 and mcr-1 in conferring colistin resistance