Poverty and the Welfare Costs of Risk Associated with Globalization

globalization, risk, growth, inequality, shocks, consumption

Inferring Informal Risk-Sharing Regimes: Evidence from Rural Tanzania

This paper studies informal risk-sharing regimes in a unified framework by examining intertemporal consumption behavior of rural households in Tanzania. We exploit  a theoretically-consistent link between interest rates and cross-sectional consumption moments to test alternative risk-sharing models without requiring data on interest rates or assuming a restriction to eliminate the need for such data, which are often unavailable in developing economies. We specify tests that allow us to distinguish among models even with temporal dependence in income shocks. Our analysis shows that the consumption pattern in rural Tanzania is consistent with the self-insurance regime, and that risk aversion varies substantially across districts. Imposing a strict condition on interest rates, as often done in prior literature, misses their intertemporal heterogeneity and biases the estimation of risk aversion

Nutrition and Risk Sharing within the Household

Using data on individual consumption from farm households in the Philippines, we construct a direct test of risk-sharing within the household. We contrast the efficient outcomes predicted by the unitary household model with the outcomes we might expect if food consumption delivers not only utils, but also nutrients affecting future productivity. The efficiency conditions which characterize the within household allocation of food under the unitary model are violated, as consumption responds to earnings shocks. If productivity depends on nutrition, this explains some but not all of the response, as earnings “surprises” have some effect on the cost and composition of diet.

QUALITY MEASUREMENT AND RISK-SHARING IN CONTRACTS FOR CALIFORNIA FRUITS AND VEGETABLES

We hypothesize that imperfect quality measurement in contracts for fresh fruits and vegetables results in a moral-hazard problem, and that the final price of the produce provides additional information regarding quality. As a consequence, growers are not shielded from all price risk. This hypothesis is tested informally with observations on actual contracts in California.Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty,

On the Efficacy of Contractual Provisions for Processing Tomatoes

This paper uses extensive data on production outcomes for processing tomato growers in California to examine the efficacy of explicit incentives observed in grower-processor contracts. Our data include all deliveries of tomatoes to some 51 processors over a period of 7 years in which at least 65 unique types of contracts are employed. Results indicate that incentives account for a significant proportion of observed variation in production outcomes, and that complementarities across different sorts of "incentive instruments" play a prominent role in contract design. Although explicit incentives explain a substantial portion of the variation in production outcomes relative to that which could be explained by incentives (as captured by processor/year fixed effects), there remains considerable variation which might be accounted for by unobserved or implicit incentives. Finally, we control for a quite exhaustive set of factors other than incentive provisions that might conceivably affect expected production outcomes, yet are still left with a substantial amount of unexplained variation.Crop Production/Industries,

CHORUSING PATTERNS OF A DIVERSE ANURAN COMMUNITY, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON SOUTHERN CRAWFISH FROGS (LITHOBATES AREOLATUS AREOLATUS)

Wildlife surveys have a critical role in conservation efforts and the collection of life history data. For anuran amphibians these surveys often focus on calling males. In order to further our understanding of anuran ecology, we used automated recording systems to monitor the calling activities of the anuran communities at two beaver-formed lakes and one cattle pond in southeastern Oklahoma. We documented 14 anuran species between 5 February and 28 April 2012. Temperature had a significant effect on the calling patterns of Eastern Narrow-mouthed Toads (Gastrophryne carolinensis), Green Treefrogs (Hyla cinerea), Gray Treefrogs (Hyla versicolor), Southern Crawfish Frogs (Lithobates areolatus areolatus), and Cajun Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris fouquettei). Temperature did not have a significant effect on the calling patterns of Dwarf American Toads (Anaxyrus americanus charlesmithi), American Bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus), or Green Frogs (Lithobates clamitans). There was not a significant relationship between rainfall and calling for L. a. areolatus. The presence of several of these species, including L. a. areolatus and Hurter’s Spadefoots (Scaphiopus hurterii) was unusual because these anurans typically breed in ephemeral, fishless pools, but the beaver lakes are permanent and sustain populations of carnivorous fishes