Promiscuity and the Evolution of Sexual Transmitted Diseases

We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized in couples and interact with each other. The different social behaviors are incorporated assigning what we call a promiscuity value to each individual agent. The individual promiscuity is taken from a distributions and represents the daily probability of going out to look for a sexual partner, abandoning its eventual mate. In terms of this parameter we find a threshold for the epidemic which is much lower than the classical fully mixed model prediction, i.e. $R_0$ (basic reproductive number) $= 1$. Different forms for the distribution of the population promiscuity are considered showing that the threshold is weakly sensitive to them. We study the homosexual and the heterosexual case as well.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

A Sr-Rich Star on the Main Sequence of Omega Centauri

Abundance ratios relative to iron for carbon, nitrogen, strontium and barium are presented for a metal-rich main sequence star ([Fe/H]=--0.74) in the globular cluster omega Centauri. This star, designated 2015448, shows depleted carbon and solar nitrogen, but more interestingly, shows an enhanced abundance ratio of strontium [Sr/Fe] ~ 1.6 dex, while the barium abundance ratio is [Ba/Fe]<0.6 dex. At this metallicity one usually sees strontium and barium abundance ratios that are roughly equal. Possible formation scenarios of this peculiar object are considered.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures. Accepted to ApJ

Physical limits of inference

I show that physical devices that perform observation, prediction, or recollection share an underlying mathematical structure. I call devices with that structure "inference devices". I present a set of existence and impossibility results concerning inference devices. These results hold independent of the precise physical laws governing our universe. In a limited sense, the impossibility results establish that Laplace was wrong to claim that even in a classical, non-chaotic universe the future can be unerringly predicted, given sufficient knowledge of the present. Alternatively, these impossibility results can be viewed as a non-quantum mechanical "uncertainty principle". Next I explore the close connections between the mathematics of inference devices and of Turing Machines. In particular, the impossibility results for inference devices are similar to the Halting theorem for TM's. Furthermore, one can define an analog of Universal TM's (UTM's) for inference devices. I call those analogs "strong inference devices". I use strong inference devices to define the "inference complexity" of an inference task, which is the analog of the Kolmogorov complexity of computing a string. However no universe can contain more than one strong inference device. So whereas the Kolmogorov complexity of a string is arbitrary up to specification of the UTM, there is no such arbitrariness in the inference complexity of an inference task. I end by discussing the philosophical implications of these results, e.g., for whether the universe "is" a computer.Comment: 43 pages, updated version of Physica D version, which originally appeared in 2007 CNLS conference on unconventional computatio

Abundances on the Main Sequence of Omega Centauri

Abundance ratios of carbon, nitrogen and strontium relative to iron, calculated using spectrum synthesis techniques, are given for a sample of main sequence and turnoff stars that belong to the globular cluster omega Centauri. The variations of carbon, nitrogen and/or strontium show several different abundance patterns as a function of [Fe/H]. The source of the enhancements/depletions in carbon, nitrogen and/or strontium may be enrichment from asymptotic giant branch stars of low (1--3 solar masses) and intermediate (3--8 solar masses) mass. Massive rotating stars which produce excess nitrogen without carbon and oxygen overabundances may also play a role. These abundances enable different contributors to be considered and incorporated into the evolutionary picture of omega Cen.Comment: 43 Pages, 13 Figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Revisiting consistency conditions for quantum states of systems on closed timelike curves: an epistemic perspective

There has been considerable recent interest in the consequences of closed timelike curves (CTCs) for the dynamics of quantum mechanical systems. A vast majority of research into this area makes use of the dynamical equations developed by Deutsch, which were developed from a consistency condition that assumes that mixed quantum states uniquely describe the physical state of a system. We criticise this choice of consistency condition from an epistemic perspective, i.e., a perspective in which the quantum state represents a state of knowledge about a system. We demonstrate that directly applying Deutsch's condition when mixed states are treated as representing an observer's knowledge of a system can conceal time travel paradoxes from the observer, rather than resolving them. To shed further light on the appropriate dynamics for quantum systems traversing CTCs, we make use of a toy epistemic theory with a strictly classical ontology due to Spekkens and show that, in contrast to the results of Deutsch, many of the traditional paradoxical effects of time travel are present.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, comments welcome; v2 added references and clarified some points; v3 published versio

Detecting Sunyaev-Zel'dovich clusters with PLANCK: I. Construction of all-sky thermal and kinetic SZ-maps

All-sky thermal and kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) maps are presented for assessing how well the PLANCK-mission can find and characterise clusters of galaxies, especially in the presence of primary anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and various galactic and ecliptic foregrounds. The maps have been constructed from numerical simulations of structure formation in a standard LCDM cosmology and contain all clusters out to redshifts of z = 1.46 with masses exceeding 5e13 M_solar/h. By construction, the maps properly account for the evolution of cosmic structure, the halo-halo correlation function, the evolving mass function, halo substructure and adiabatic gas physics. The velocities in the kinetic map correspond to the actual density environment at the cluster positions. We characterise the SZ-cluster sample by measuring the distribution of angular sizes, the integrated thermal and kinetic Comptonisations, the source counts in the three relevant PLANCK-channels, and give the angular power-spectra of the SZ-sky. While our results are broadly consistent with simple estimates based on scaling relations and spherically symmetric cluster models, some significant differences are seen which may affect the number of cluster detectable by PLANCK.Comment: 14 pages, 16 figures, 3 tables, submitted to MNRAS, 05.Jul.200

Maximum levels of hepatitis C virus lipoviral particles are associated with early and persistent infection

Background & Aims: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is bound to plasma lipoproteins and circulates as an infectious lipoviral particle (LVP). Experimental evidence indicates that LVPs have decreased susceptibility to antibody-mediated neutralisation and higher infectivity. This study tested the hypothesis that LVPs are required to establish persistent infection, and conversely, low levels of LVP in recent HCV infection increase the probability of spontaneous HCV clearance. Methods: LVP in non-fasting plasma was measured using the concentration of HCV RNA bound to large >100 nm sized lipoproteins after ex vivo addition of a lipid emulsion, that represented the maximum concentration of LVP (maxi-LVP). This method correlated with LVP in fasting plasma measured using iodixanol density gradient ultracentrifugation. Maxi-LVP was measured in a cohort of 180 HCV participants with recent HCV infection and detectable HCV RNA from the Australian Trial in Acute Hepatitis C (ATAHC) and Hepatitis C Incidence and Transmission Study in prison (HITS-p) cohorts. Results: Spontaneous clearance occurred in 15% (27 of 180) of individuals. In adjusted analyses, low plasma maxi-LVP level was independently associated with spontaneous HCV clearance (≤827 IU/ml; adjusted odds ratio 3.98, 95% CI: 1.02, 15.51, P = 0.047), after adjusting for interferon lambda-3 rs8099917 genotype, estimated duration of HCV infection and total HCV RNA level. Conclusions: Maxi-LVP is a biomarker for the maximum concentration of LVP in non-fasting samples. Low maxi-LVP level is an independent predictor of spontaneous clearance of acute HCV

Process evaluation for complex interventions in primary care: understanding trials using the normalization process model

Background: the Normalization Process Model is a conceptual tool intended to assist in understanding the factors that affect implementation processes in clinical trials and other evaluations of complex interventions. It focuses on the ways that the implementation of complex interventions is shaped by problems of workability and integration.Method: in this paper the model is applied to two different complex trials: (i) the delivery of problem solving therapies for psychosocial distress, and (ii) the delivery of nurse-led clinics for heart failure treatment in primary care.Results: application of the model shows how process evaluations need to focus on more than the immediate contexts in which trial outcomes are generated. Problems relating to intervention workability and integration also need to be understood. The model may be used effectively to explain the implementation process in trials of complex interventions.Conclusion: the model invites evaluators to attend equally to considering how a complex intervention interacts with existing patterns of service organization, professional practice, and professional-patient interaction. The justification for this may be found in the abundance of reports of clinical effectiveness for interventions that have little hope of being implemented in real healthcare setting

Exploring the behavioural drivers of veterinary surgeon antibiotic prescribing: a qualitative study of companion animal veterinary surgeons in the UK

Background: Multi-drug resistant bacteria are an increasing concern in both human and veterinary medicine. Inappropriate prescribing and use of antibiotics within veterinary medicine may be a contributory factor to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The ‘One Health’ Initiative aims to work across species and environments to reduce AMR, however; little is currently known about the factors which influence antibiotic prescribing among veterinary surgeons in companion animal practice. This paper reports on qualitative data analysis of interviews with veterinary surgeons whose practice partially or wholly focuses on companion animals (N = 16). The objective of the research was to explore the drivers of companion animal veterinary surgeons’ antibiotic prescribing behaviours. The veterinary surgeons interviewed were all practising within the UK (England (n = 4), Scotland (n = 11), Northern Ireland (n = 1)). A behavioural thematic analysis of the data was undertaken, which identified barriers and facilitators to specific prescribing-related behaviours. Results: Five components of prescribing behaviours were identified: 1) confirming clinical need for antibiotics; 2) responding to clients; 3) confirming diagnosis; 4) determining dose, duration and type of antibiotic; and 5) preventing infection around surgery (with attendant appropriate and inappropriate antibiotic prescribing behaviours). Barriers to appropriate prescribing identified include: business, diagnostic, fear, habitual practice and pharmaceutical factors. Facilitators include: AMR awareness, infection prevention, professional learning and regulation and government factors. Conclusion: This paper uses a behavioural lens to examine drivers which are an influence on veterinary surgeons’ prescribing behaviours. The paper contributes new understandings about factors which influence antibiotic prescribing behaviours among companion animal veterinary surgeons. This analysis provides evidence to inform future interventions, which are focused on changing prescribing behaviours, in order to address the pressing public health concern of AMR