Development, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of LASH model

Diversos modelos hidrológicos têm sido desenvolvidos no intuito de auxiliar na gestão de recursos naturais em todo o mundo. Porém, a maioria desses modelos apresenta um alto grau de complexidade em relação tanto à necessidade de base de dados, quanto ao número de parâmetros de calibração. Em virtude desses fatores, se torna difícil a aplicação em bacias hidrográficas que têm bases de dados reduzidas. Neste artigo é descrito o desenvolvimento do modelo Lavras Simulation of Hydrology (LASH) em uma estrutura de SIG, buscando enfatizar seus principais componentes e parâmetros, bem como suas potencialidades. Além da descrição do modelo, também foram realizadas a análise de sensibilidade, a redução do intervalo de parâmetros e a análise de incertezas, anteriormente à fase de calibração, utilizando metodologias específicas (método de Morris, simulação de Monte Carlo e o método Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Equation (GLUE)), com a base de dados de uma bacia hidrográfica experimental tropical brasileira (32 km²), a fim de simular a vazão total média diária. O LASH é um modelo classificado como determinístico e distribuído, que utiliza dados de longo termo e poucos mapas para predizer vazão na seção de controle de bacias hidrográficas. Foi possível identificar os parâmetros mais sensíveis do modelo para a bacia hidrográfica de referência, os quais estão associados com os componentes de escoamento de base e superficial direto. Em função do limiar conservador utilizado neste estudo, foram reduzidos os intervalos de dois parâmetros, dessa forma gerando resultados simulados mais realísticos e também facilitando a calibração automática do modelo com um menor número de iterações necessárias. O método da GLUE mostrou ser eficiente frente à análise de incertezas relacionadas à predição de vazão na bacia de estudo.Many hydrologic models have been developed to help manage natural resources all over the world. Nevertheless, most models have presented a high complexity regarding data base requirements, as well as, many calibration parameters. This has brought serious difficulties for applying them in watersheds where there is scarcity of data. The development of the Lavras Simulation of Hydrology (LASH) in a GIS framework is described in this study, which focuses on its main components, parameters, and capabilities. Coupled with LASH, sensitivity analysis, parameter range reduction, and uncertainty analysis were performed prior to the calibration effort by using specific techniques (Morris method, Monte Carlo simulation and a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation -GLUE) with a data base from a Brazilian Tropical Experimental Watershed (32 km²), in order to predict streamflow on a daily basis. LASH is a simple deterministic and spatially distributed model using long-term data sets, and a few maps to predict streamflow at a watershed outlet. We were able to identify the most sensitive parameters which are associated with the base flow and surface runoff components, using a reference watershed. Using a conservative threshold, two parameters had their range of values reduced, thus resulting in outputs closer to measured values and facilitating automatic calibration of the model with less required iterations. GLUE was found to be an efficient method to analyze uncertainties related to the prediction of mean daily streamflow in the watershed

Interrill and rill erosion as affected by plot configuration on a sandy loam Hapludalf soil

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o efeito de parcelas de erosão com seções transversais da superfície do solo retangular (STR) e triangular (STT) na perda de solo e água e na erodibilidade, em sulcos e entressulcos. O experimento foi conduzido em 1998, em um Argissolo Vermelho-Amarelo distrófico arênico, preparado convencionalmente. As dimensões das parcelas de entressulcos foram de 0,50 m por 0,75 m; nos sulcos com STR, as dimensões foram de 0,20 m por 5,90 m, e nos de STT, de 0,50 m por 5,90 m. Utilizou-se chuva simulada constante de 65 mm h-1 nos entressulcos, durante 90 minutos. Nos sulcos, após pré-umedecimento do solo, foram aplicadas cinco vazões extras crescentes de 0,0002 m3 s-1 até 0,0010 m3 s-1. A desagregação nos entressulcos Di (2,09.10-4 kg m-2 s-1 nas STR e 3,35.10-4 kg m-2 s-1 nas STT), a erodibilidade nos entressulcos Ki (1,77.106 kg s m-4 nas STR e 2,00.106 kg s m-4 nas STT), a erodibilidade em sulcos Kr (0,0110 kg N-1 s-1 nas STR e 0,0074 kg N-1 s-1 na STT) e a tensão crítica de cisalhamento tc (2,61 N m-2 na STR e 2,00 N m-2 na STT) não foram estatisticamente diferentes nos dois formatos de seção transversal, e podem ser determinados usando-se qualquer um dos formatos de parcelas em solos de textura superficial arenosa.The objective of this study was to compare rill and interrill erodibility and critical shear stress, for two configurations of soil surface: rectangular (RCS) and triangular (TCS) cross-sections. The experiment was done in 1998 on a conventionally tilled Hapludalf with a sandy loam soil surface texture. The interrill plot dimensions were 0.50 by 0.75 m, while for rill, the dimensions were 0.20 by 5.90 m for RCS, and 0.50 by 5.90 m for TCS. Constant simulated rain of 65 mm h-1 was applied on the interrill plots for 90 minutes, whereas for the rills, besides rain to prewet the soil, five extra inflows of 0.0002 m3 s-1 up to 0.0010 m3 s-1 were applied. The interrill detachment rate Di (2.09x10-4 kg m-2 s-1 for RCS and 3.35x10-4 kg m-2 s-1 for TCS), interrill erodibility Ki (1.77x106 kg s m-4 for RCS and 2.00x106 kg s m-4 for TCS), rill erodibility Kr (0.0110 kg N-1 s-1 for RCS e 0.0074 kg N-1 s-1 for TCS), and critical shear stress tc (2.61 N m-2 for RCS e 2.00 N m-2 for TCS) were not statistically different for the two cross-sections, and can be determined on any of the plot configuration for sandy loam soils

Hydrosedimentological modeling in a headwater basin in Southeast Brazil

Hydrosedimentological modeling is a useful tool to predict the water dynamic in a basin and for water resources management. This study aimed to i) evaluate the ability of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model sediment load and continuous monthly streamflow in the Mortes River Basin (MRB) in Southeastern Brazil; ii) estimate the sediment yield spatially distributed by sub-basins; iii) estimate the sediment load export to the Funil Hydroelectric Power Plant reservoir (FHPP), located in the MRB outlet. For the sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty analysis of the model, a semi-automatic calibration in SWAT-CUP version 5.1.6 software with the “Sequential Uncertainty Fitting” algorithm was used. To evaluate the ability of SWAT to reproduce the continuous MRB monthly streamflow and sediment load, statistical indexes, and graphical analyses were used to compare the simulated and observed data. For the sediment evaluation, a spatial and temporal comparison of sediment yield maps was used as well as the sediment yield observed in sub-basins, aiming to identify the areas with a more significant contribution to the sediment generation in the basin. The results demonstrated that SWAT performed satisfactorily in simulating both monthly sediment load and streamflow. For discharge calibration, 99 % of the measured data were bracketed by the 95 % prediction uncertainty (95PPU), and for validation, 97 % of the data were bracketed by the 95PPU, which indicates proper bracketing of the measured data within model prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis indicated that 95PPU could capture 78 % of the sediment loads measured during the calibration and 72 % of the measured data during the validation period at MRB. The hydrologic response unit with pasture and Argissolos (Ultisols), Neossolos Litólicos (Entisols), and Cambissolos (Inceptisols) combined with undulated relief were the main areas responsible for the highest sediment contributions. The sediment load delivered to the reservoir from its filling 2002 to 2015 was estimated in 6,682,704 m3 (16,706,761 Mg) (density of 2.5-Mg m-3) which value corresponded to 2.6 % of storage capacity (water plus sediment) in 14 years. These results are strategic since to become feasible identifying priority areas for soil and water conservation practices as well as useful information for water resources planning and management in the studied basin