New Hybrid Protected Lands Layer for Vermont Conservation Design Analysis (February 2019)

This shapefile (.shp) is a hybrid of the March 2017 Edition of the Vermont Center for Geographic Information\u27s (VCGI) Vermont Protected Lands Database (VPLD), the Vermont Land Trust\u27s February 2019 Protected Lands database, and The Nature Conservancy\u27s Secured Areas (SA 2018+) database. The VLT and SA 2018+ datasets were used as the scaffolding for the hybrid protected lands layer, with some VCGI VPLD polygons retained if they contained unique contributions. These datasets were combined by C.D. Loeb because each input dataset was missing some protected lands polygons in the state of Vermont. Additionally, the VCGI VPLD dataset contained many overlapping polygons, making it unusable for the area calculations of interest to our study on the overlap between formally protected lands and Vermont Conservation Design landscape-level targets (see publication reference). This hybrid protected lands layer creates a more complete snapshot of Vermont’s protected lands for our study’s purposes than any other known, publicly available dataset as of February 2019, and also corrects for all improperly overlapping polygons. However, we know that this hybrid product still does not capture all of Vermont\u27s protected lands. Specifically, some Upper Valley Land Trust-protected parcels are missing from this hybrid protected lands layer, and there are probably other protected parcels that could not be captured by the input datasets. Thus, our hybrid product will likely underrepresent actual protections. This layer was created to intersect with Vermont Conservation Design targets for input into the software Tableau. Its purpose was to perform cross tabulations to compare Vermont Conservation Design targets with protected lands in Vermont to-date, and to calculate acreages of protected lands that are also design targets by primary protecting agency. All parcel attributes and delineations in the hybrid output are only as good as the parent datasets. In areas where parcels were digitized differently between parent datasets, “slivers” may have been generated by merging them. Our study objectives originally included an analysis of the GAP Status of protected lands in Vermont (reflected in this layer\u27s metadata); however, some serious errors were detected in parent datasets with regards to GAP Status, so GAP Status was discarded as an analysis object. Please note author-identified GAP Status issues if using this dataset. Please see the shapefile\u27s metadata for detailed creation steps. The user implies knowledge of the limitations of this dataset. This dataset should not be used to ascertain boundaries or legal acreages for any parcels. Note: This version of the hybrid protected lands layer does not have county boundaries embedded in it nor waterbodies excluded from it, since it was created to capture all formally protected lands in the state of Vermont to the best of the authors’ abilities. Prior to use in our analysis, this layer was modified to exclude waterbodies and to introduce county boundaries. To obtain the same hybrid protected lands layer with county boundaries embedded in it and waterbodies excluded from it, please contact C. D. Loeb at [email protected]

Reionization of Hydrogen and Helium by Early Stars and Quasars

We compute the reionization histories of hydrogen and helium due to the ionizing radiation fields produced by stars and quasars. For the quasars we use a model based on halo-merger rates that reproduces all known properties of the quasar luminosity function at high redshifts. The less constrained properties of the ionizing radiation produced by stars are modeled with two free parameters: (i) a transition redshift, z_tran, above which the stellar population is dominated by massive, zero-metallicity stars and below which it is dominated by a Scalo mass function; (ii) the product of the escape fraction of stellar ionizing photons from their host galaxies and the star-formation efficiency, f_esc f_*. We constrain the allowed range of these free parameters at high redshifts based on the lack of the HI Gunn-Peterson trough at z<6 and the upper limit on the total intergalactic optical depth for electron scattering, tau_es<0.18, from recent cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. We find that quasars ionize helium by a redshift z~4, but cannot reionize hydrogen by themselves before z~6. A major fraction of the allowed combinations of f_esc f_* and z_tran lead to an early peak in the ionized fraction due to metal-free stars at high redshifts. This sometimes results in two reionization epochs, namely an early HII or HeIII overlap phase followed by recombination and a second overlap phase. Even if early overlap is not achieved, the peak in the visibility function for scattering of the CMB often coincides with the early ionization phase rather than with the actual reionization epoch. Consequently, tau_es does not correspond directly to the reionization redshift. We generically find values of tau_es>7%, that should be detectable by the MAP satellite.Comment: 33 pages, 10 figures, Accepted for publication in Ap

A Model Connecting Galaxy Masses, Star Formation Rates, and Dust Temperatures Across Cosmic Time

We investigate the evolution of dust content in galaxies from redshifts z=0 to z=9.5. Using empirically motivated prescriptions, we model galactic-scale properties -- including halo mass, stellar mass, star formation rate, gas mass, and metallicity -- to make predictions for the galactic evolution of dust mass and dust temperature in main sequence galaxies. Our simple analytic model, which predicts that galaxies in the early Universe had greater quantities of dust than their low-redshift counterparts, does a good job at reproducing observed trends between galaxy dust and stellar mass out to z~6. We find that for fixed galaxy stellar mass, the dust temperature increases from z=0 to z=6. Our model forecasts a population of low-mass, high-redshift galaxies with interstellar dust as hot as, or hotter than, their more massive counterparts; but this prediction needs to be constrained by observations. Finally, we make predictions for observing 1.1-mm flux density arising from interstellar dust emission with the Atacama Large Millimeter Array.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Scattered Lyman-alpha Radiation Around Sources Before Cosmological Reionization

The spectra of the first galaxies and quasars in the Universe should be strongly absorbed shortward of their rest-frame Lyman-alpha wavelength by neutral hydrogen (HI) in the intervening intergalactic medium. However, the Lyman-alpha line photons emitted by these sources are not eliminated but rather scatter until they redshift out of resonance and escape due to the Hubble expansion of the surrounding intergalactic HI. We calculate the resulting brightness distribution and the spectral shape of the diffuse Lyman-alpha line emission around high redshift sources, before the intergalactic medium was reionized. Typically, the Lyman-alpha photons emitted by a source at z=10 scatter over a characteristic angular radius of order 15 arcseconds around the source and compose a line which is broadened and redshifted by about a thousand km/s relative to the source. The scattered photons are highly polarized. Detection of the diffuse Lyman-alpha halos around high redshift sources would provide a unique tool for probing the neutral intergalactic medium before the epoch of reionization. On sufficiently large scales where the Hubble flow is smooth and the gas is neutral, the Lyman-alpha brightness distribution can be used to determine the cosmological mass densities of baryons and matter.Comment: 21 pages, 5 Postscript figures, accepted by ApJ; figures 1--3 corrected; new section added on the detectability of Lyman alpha halos; conclusions update

Measuring the Direction and Angular Velocity of a Black Hole Accretion Disk via Lagged Interferometric Covariance

We show that interferometry can be applied to study irregular, rapidly rotating structures, as are expected in the turbulent accretion flow near a black hole. Specifically, we analyze the lagged covariance between interferometric baselines of similar lengths but slightly different orientations. For a flow viewed close to face-on, we demonstrate that the peak in the lagged covariance indicates the direction and angular velocity of the emission pattern from the flow. Even for moderately inclined flows, the covariance robustly estimates the flow direction, although the estimated angular velocity can be significantly biased. Importantly, measuring the direction of the flow as clockwise or counterclockwise on the sky breaks a degeneracy in accretion disk inclinations when analyzing time-averaged images alone. We explore the potential efficacy of our technique using three-dimensional, general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations, and we highlight several baseline pairs for the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) that are well-suited to this application. These results indicate that the EHT may be capable of estimating the direction and angular velocity of the emitting material near Sagittarius A*, and they suggest that a rotating flow may even be utilized to improve imaging capabilities.Comment: 8 Pages, 4 Figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Measuring the 3D Clustering of Undetected Galaxies Through Cross Correlation of their Cumulative Flux Fluctuations from Multiple Spectral Lines

We discuss a method for detecting the emission from high redshift galaxies by cross correlating flux fluctuations from multiple spectral lines. If one can fit and subtract away the continuum emission with a smooth function of frequency, the remaining signal contains fluctuations of flux with frequency and angle from line emitting galaxies. Over a particular small range of observed frequencies, these fluctuations will originate from sources corresponding to a series of different redshifts, one for each emission line. It is possible to statistically isolate the fluctuations at a particular redshift by cross correlating emission originating from the same redshift, but in different emission lines. This technique will allow detection of clustering fluctuations from the faintest galaxies which individually cannot be detected, but which contribute substantially to the total signal due to their large numbers. We describe these fluctuations quantitatively through the line cross power spectrum. As an example of a particular application of this technique, we calculate the signal-to-noise ratio for a measurement of the cross power spectrum of the OI(63 micron) and OIII(52 micron) fine structure lines with the proposed Space Infrared Telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics. We find that the cross power spectrum can be measured beyond a redshift of z=8. Such observations could constrain the evolution of the metallicity, bias, and duty cycle of faint galaxies at high redshifts and may also be sensitive to the reionization history through its effect on the minimum mass of galaxies. As another example, we consider the cross power spectrum of CO line emission measured with a large ground based telescope like CCAT and 21-cm radiation originating from hydrogen in galaxies after reionization with an interferometer similar in scale to MWA, but optimized for post-reionization redshifts.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures; Replaced with version accepted by JCAP; Added an example of cross correlating CO line emission and 21cm line emission from galaxies after reionizatio

The Impact of Cell Phones and BAC Laws on Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates

This paper develops a set of models for the determinants of automobile fatalities with particular attention devoted to the effects of increased cell phone usage. Cell phones have been associated with both life-taking and life-saving properties. However, prior statistical evaluations of the effects of cell phones have led to fragile results. We develop in this paper econometric models using time series data, allowing for polynomial structures of the regressors. The models are evaluated with a set of specification error tests providing reliable estimates of the effects of the various policy and driving related variables evaluated. The statistical results indicate the effect of cell phones is non-monotonic depending on the volume of phones in use, first having a net life-taking effect, then a net life-saving effect, followed finally with a net life-taking effect as the volume of phone use increases.Motor Vehicle Fatalities, Cell Phones, BAC Laws

Cosmological Recombination of Lithium and its Effect on the Microwave Background Anisotropies

The cosmological recombination history of lithium, produced during Big--Bang nucleosynthesis, is presented using updated chemistry and cosmological parameters consistent with recent cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements. For the popular set of cosmological parameters, about a fifth of the lithium ions recombine into neutral atoms by a redshift $z\sim 400$. The neutral lithium atoms scatter resonantly the CMB at 6708 \AA and distort its intensity and polarization anisotropies at observed wavelengths around $\sim 300 \mu$m, as originally suggested by Loeb (2001). The modified anistropies resulting from the lithium recombination history are calculated for a variety of cosmological models and found to result primarily in a suppression of the power spectrum amplitude. Significant modification of the power spectrum occurs for models which assume a large primordial abundance of lithium. While detection of the lithium signal might prove difficult, if offers the possibility of inferring the lithium primordial abundance and is the only probe proposed to date of the large-scale structure of the Universe for $z\sim 500-100$.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

Detecting the Earliest Galaxies Through Two New Sources of 21cm Fluctuations

The first galaxies that formed at a redshift ~20-30 emitted continuum photons with energies between the Lyman-alpha and Lyman limit wavelengths of hydrogen, to which the neutral universe was transparent except at the Lyman-series resonances. As these photons redshifted or scattered into the Lyman-alpha resonance they coupled the spin temperature of the 21cm transition of hydrogen to the gas temperature, allowing it to deviate from the microwave background temperature. We show that the fluctuations in the radiation emitted by the first galaxies produced strong fluctuations in the 21cm flux before the Lyman-alpha coupling became saturated. The fluctuations were caused by biased inhomogeneities in the density of galaxies, along with Poisson fluctuations in the number of galaxies. Observing the power-spectra of these two sources would probe the number density of the earliest galaxies and the typical mass of their host dark matter halos. The enhanced amplitude of the 21cm fluctuations from the era of Lyman-alpha coupling improves considerably the practical prospects for their detection.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, ApJ, published. Normalization fixed in top panels of Figures 4-