Monetary policy aspects of the enlargement of the Euro area

There is some evidence that interdependencies among European banks have increased over the past 15 years and that the potential of systemic risks in banking has shifted from a national level to a European level. / Whereas wholesale financial markets are considered to be highly integrated within the European Union, integration in retail financial markets is less advanced, as a study on measuring financial market integration including an analysis of obstacles to financial market integration shows. --

Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro

We demonstrate that bond yield compression is under way in the countries converging to the euro and that German yields are significant drivers of local currency yields. Based on the evidence from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, we conclude that these new Member States of the European Union are ready to adopt the euro without risking a disruptive shock to their financial stability. This message transpires from investigating the daily volatility dynamics of local bond yields as a function of German yields, conditional on changes in local term spreads, exchange rates and adjustments to central bank reference rates. Similar results of high sensitivity of local currency bond yields to changes in German yields are obtained from testing monthly series of macroeconomic fundamentals. These findings provide evidence of the potential usefulness of term spreads as indicators of monetary convergence.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40185/3/wp799.pd

Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro

We demonstrate that bond yield compression is under way in the countries converging to the euro and that German yields are significant drivers of local currency yields. Based on the evidence from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, we conclude that these new Member States of the European Union are ready to adopt the euro without risking a disruptive shock to their financial stability. This message transpires from investigating the daily volatility dynamics of local bond yields as a function of German yields, conditional on changes in local term spreads, exchange rates and adjustments to central bank reference rates. Similar results of high sensitivity of local currency bond yields to changes in German yields are obtained from testing monthly series of macroeconomic fundamentals. These findings provide evidence of the potential usefulness of term spreads as indicators of monetary convergence.term spread, term premium, yield compression, monetary convergence, new Member States, EMU, conditional volatility, asymmetric GARCH models

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty

This paper sets out to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. A theoretical model is developed that provides an explanation for the appreciation of the real exchange rate based on tradable prices in the acceding countries. Our model can be considered as a competing but also completing framework to the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model. With this as a background, alternative cointegration methods are applied to time series (Engle-Granger, DOLS, ARDL and Johansen) and to three small-size panels (pooled and fixed effect OLS, DOLS, PMGE and MGE), which leaves us with around 5,000 estimated regressions. This enables us to examine the uncertainty surrounding estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates and the size of the underlying real misalignments.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40062/3/wp676.pd

Real Exchange Rates in Small Open OECD and Transition Economies: Comparing Apples with Oranges?

We find that productivity gains in tradables cause an appreciation of the real exchange rate via both tradable and nontradable prices in the CEE-5 and have no affect in the Baltic countries, while they lead to a depreciation of the real exchange rate of tradables in OECD economies that overcompensates the appreciation due to nontradable prices. Rising net foreign liabilities lead to a real appreciation in the Baltic countries instead of the expected depreciation found in OECD and CEE-5 countries. These differences are due to the different impact of the fundamentals on the real exchange rate depending on the time horizon studied.real exchange rate, equilibrium exchange rate, productivity, tradables, Balassa-Samuelson effect

Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty

This paper sets out to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. A theoretical model is developed that provides an explanation for the appreciation of the real exchange rate based on tradable prices in the acceding countries. Our model can be considered as a competing but also completing framework to the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model. With this as a background, alternative cointegration methods are applied to time series (Engle-Granger, DOLS, ARDL and Johansen) and to three small-size panels (pooled and fixed effect OLS, DOLS, PMGE and MGE), which leaves us with around 5,000 estimated regressions. This enables us to examine the uncertainty surrounding estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates and the size of the underlying real misalignments.real exchange rate; equilibrium exchange rate; tradable prices; transition; cointegration

Context-aware LDA: Balancing Relevance and Diversity in TV Content Recommenders

In the vast and expanding ocean of digital content, users are hardly satisfied with recommended programs solely based on static user patterns and common statistics. Therefore, there is growing interest in recommendation approaches that aim to provide a certain level of diversity, besides precision and ranking. Context-awareness, which is an effective way to express dynamics and adaptivity, is widely used in recom-mender systems to set a proper balance between ranking and diversity. In light of these observations, we introduce a recommender with a context-aware probabilistic graphi-cal model and apply it to a campus-wide TV content de-livery system named “Vision”. Within this recommender, selection criteria of candidate fields and contextual factors are designed and users’ dependencies on their personal pref-erence or the aforementioned contextual influences can be distinguished. Most importantly, as to the role of balanc-ing relevance and diversity, final experiment results prove that context-aware LDA can evidently outperform other al-gorithms on both metrics. Thus this scalable model can be flexibly used for different recommendation purposes

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty

This paper sets out to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. A theoretical model is developed that provides an explanation for the appreciation of the real exchange rate based on tradable prices in the acceding countries. Our model can be considered as a competing but also completing framework to the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model. With this as a background, alternative cointegration methods are applied to time series (Engle-Granger, DOLS, ARDL and Johansen) and to three small-size panels (pooled and fixed effect OLS, DOLS, PMGE and MGE), which leaves us with around 5,000 estimated regressions. This enables us to examine the uncertainty surrounding estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates and the size of the underlying real misalignments.Real Exchange Rate, Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Tradable Prices, Transition, Cointegration