Naïve, Resolute or Sophisticated? A Study of Dynamic Decision Making

Dynamically inconsistent decision makers have to decide, implicitly or explicitly, what to do about their dynamic inconsistency. Economic theorists have identified three possible responses – to act naively (thus ignoring the dynamic inconsistency), to act resolutely (not letting their inconsistency affect their behaviour) or to act sophisticatedly (hence taking into account their inconsistency). We use data from a unique experiment (which observes both decisions and evaluations) in order to distinguish these three possibilities. We find that the majority of subjects are either naïve or resolute (with slightly more being naïve) but very few are sophisticated. These results have important implications for predicting the behaviour of people in dynamic situations.Dynamic decision making, naivety, sophistication, resoluteness, dynamic inconsistencies

Choquet OK?

There is a large theoretical literature in both economics and psychology on decision making under ambiguity (as distinct from risk) and many preference functionals proposed in this literature for describing behaviour in such contexts. However, the empirical literature is scarce and largely confined to testing between various proposed functionals. Using a new design, in which we create genuine ambiguity in the laboratory and can control the amount of ambiguity, we generate data which enables us to estimate several of the proposed preference functionals. In particular, we fit Subjective Expected Utility, Prospect Theory, Choquet Expected Utility, Maximin, Maximax, and Minimum Regret preference functionals, and examine how the fit changes when we vary the ambiguity. We find that the Choquet formulation performs best overall, though it is clear that different decision makers have different functionals. We also identify new decision rules which are not explicitly modelled in the literature.Ambiguity, Subjective Expected Utility, Prospect Theory, Choquet Expected Utility, Decision Making, Maximin, Maximax, Minimum Regret, Bingo Blower

Tunable fragmentation of organic molecules in laser ablation glow discharge time-of-flight mass spectrometry

A DC-pulsed glow discharge (GD) has distinct temporal regimes which are characterized by "softer” or "harder” ionization of analytes introduced into the discharge. It is thus possible to obtain both molecular weight and structural fragment information from the same spectra. In order to extend the capabilities of this technique a laser ablation (LA) sampling system was coupled to a DC-pulsed GD and to a time-of-flight (TOF) mass spectrometer (MS) for characterizing organic samples such as oleic acid, reserpine, two different peptides, and a polymer. Both hard and soft ionization regimes were studied. These LAGD-TOFMS results were compared to matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization (MALDI) spectra using the same compounds (i.e., analytes, concentration, and matrix). It was found that LAGD offers tunable ionization and provides a reduced matrix dependence. However, the sensitivity achieved by the prototype LAGD-TOFMS was significantly lower when compared with commercially available MALDI-TOFMS instrumentation. Since LAGD-TOFMS is rather new, some technical details to increase its sensitivity are discussed. Figure Schematics of molecular and structural information of oleic acid molecule during the different temporal regimes of a pulsed G

Choquet OK?

There is a large theoretical literature in both economics and psychology on decision making under ambiguity (as distinct from risk) and many preference functionals proposed in this literature for describing behaviour in such contexts. However, the empirical literature is scarce and largely confined to testing between various proposed functionals. Using a new design, in which we create genuine ambiguity in the laboratory and can control the amount of ambiguity, we generate data which enables us to estimate several of the proposed preference functionals. In particular, we fit Subjective Expected Utility, Prospect Theory, Choquet Expected Utility, Maximin, Maximax, and Minimum Regret preference functionals, and examine how the fit changes when we vary the ambiguity. We find that the Choquet formulation performs best overall, though it is clear that different decision makers have different functionals. We also identify new decision rules which are not explicitly modelled in the literature.There is a large theoretical literature in both economics and psychology on decision making under ambiguity (as distinct from risk) and many preference functionals proposed in this literature for describing behaviour in such contexts. However, the empirical literature is scarce and largely confined to testing between various proposed functionals. Using a new design, in which we create genuine ambiguity in the laboratory and can control the amount of ambiguity, we generate data which enables us to estimate several of the proposed preference functionals. In particular, we fit Subjective Expected Utility, Prospect Theory, Choquet Expected Utility, Maximin, Maximax, and Minimum Regret preference functionals, and examine how the fit changes when we vary the ambiguity. We find that the Choquet formulation performs best overall, though it is clear that different decision makers have different functionals. We also identify new decision rules which are not explicitly modelled in the literature.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl

The Descriptive and Predictive Adequacy of Theories of Decision Making Under Uncertainty/Ambiguity

In this paper we examine the performance of theories of decision making under uncertainty/ambiguity from the perspective of their descriptive and predictive power, taking into account the relative parsimony of the various theories. To this end, we employ an innovative experimental design which enables us to reproduce ambiguity in the laboratory in a transparent and non-probabilistic way. We find that judging theories on the basis of their theoretical appeal, or on their ability to do well in testing contexts, is not the same as judging them on the basis of their explanatory and predictive power. We also find that the more elegant theoretical models do not perform as well as simple rules of thumb.In this paper we examine the performance of theories of decision making under uncertainty/ambiguity from the perspective of their descriptive and predictive power, taking into account the relative parsimony of the various theories. To this end, we employ an innovative experimental design which enables us to reproduce ambiguity in the laboratory in a transparent and non-probabilistic way. We find that judging theories on the basis of their theoretical appeal, or on their ability to do well in testing contexts, is not the same as judging them on the basis of their explanatory and predictive power. We also find that the more elegant theoretical models do not perform as well as simple rules of thumb.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl

Optimización de matrices origen-destino estimadas a partir de datos georeferenciados en redes sociales

A la hora de aplicar cualquier política urbana de transporte es muy importante conocer el patrón de movilidad de la población y por lo tanto las matrices Origen Destino que la describen. Los grandes volúmenes de datos arrojados por las nuevas tecnologías permiten obtener información dinámica del comportamiento de sus usuarios. En contraposición con los métodos clásicos de obtención de las matrices O-D el uso de las redes sociales aporta una manera más económica de realizar el estudio y un mayor dinamismo. En este trabajo se desarrolla un método para la actualización de matrices Origen-Destino correspondientes a tráfico vehicular, a partir de la información obtenida de datos disponibles en la red social Twitter. Para actualizar una matriz OD anterior con nueva información se consideró un problema de maximización de entropía restringiendo la distancia a la matriz original. El enfoque presentado se aplicó a analizar la movilidad diaria de las personas de CABA obteniendo las matrices O-D que la caracterizan y los resultados obtenidos se compararon con estudios previos que se realizaron utilizando otras metodologías comprobando la viabilidad del nuevo enfoque propuesto

Common Phenolic Metabolites of Flavonoids, but Not Their Unmetabolized Precursors, Reduce the Secretion of Vascular Cellular Adhesion Molecules by Human Endothelial Cells

Background: Flavonoids have been implicated in the prevention of cardiovascular disease; however, their mechanisms of action have yet to be elucidated, possibly because most previous in vitro studies have used supraphysiological concentrations of unmetabolized flavonoids, overlooking their more bioavailable phenolic metabolites. Objective: We aimed to explore the effects of phenolic metabolites and their precursor flavonoids at physiologically achievable concentrations, in isolation and combination, on soluble vascular cellular adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1). Method: Fourteen phenolic acid metabolites and 6 flavonoids were screened at 1 μM for their relative effects on sVCAM-1 secretion by human umbilical vein endothelial cells stimulated with tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α). The active metabolites were further studied for their response at different concentrations (0.01 μM–100 μM), structure-activity relationships, and effect on vascular cellular adhesion molecule (VCAM)-1 mRNA expression. In addition, the additive activity of the metabolites and flavonoids was investigated by screening 25 unique mixtures at cumulative equimolar concentrations of 1 μM. Results: Of the 20 compounds screened at 1 μM, inhibition of sVCAM-1 secretion was elicited by 4 phenolic metabolites, of which protocatechuic acid (PCA) was the most active (−17.2%, P = 0.05). Investigations into their responses at different concentrations showed that PCA significantly reduced sVCAM-1 15.2–36.5% between 1 and 100 μM, protocatechuic acid-3-sulfate and isovanillic acid reduced sVCAM-1 levels 12.2–54.7% between 10 and 100 μM, and protocatechuic acid-4-sulfate and isovanillic acid-3-glucuronide reduced sVCAM-1 secretion 27.6% and 42.8%, respectively, only at 100 μM. PCA demonstrated the strongest protein response and was therefore explored for its effect on VCAM-1 mRNA, where 78.4% inhibition was observed only after treatment with 100 μM PCA. Mixtures of the metabolites showed no activity toward sVCAM-1, suggesting no additive activity at 1 μM. Conclusions: The present findings suggest that metabolism of flavonoids increases their vascular efficacy, resulting in a diversity of structures of varying bioactivity in human endothelial cells

Growth Performance of Buffalo Calves in Response to Different Diets with and without Saccharomyces cerevisiae Supplementation

: The aim of the present trial was to evaluate the growth performance of buffalo calves fed on diets characterized by different forage/concentrate ratios, with or without Saccharomyces cerevisiae supplementation (CBS 493.94, Yea-Sacc®). Twenty-four male buffalo calves (mean age of 145.1 ± 16.1 days; mean weight of 108.0 ± 18.7 kg) were assigned randomly to 4 groups, homogeneous in age, that were fed four different diets: diet 1, F:C ratio 50:50; diet 2, F:C ratio 30:70; diet 3, F:C ratio 50:50 + Yea-Sacc®; and diet 4, F:C ratio 30:70 + Yea-Sacc®. Buffalo calves were individually weighted before the start of the experiment and the data were used as a covariate, being taken monthly until the end of the trial. Dry matter intake (DMI), daily weight gain (DWG) and feed conversion ratio (FCR) were calculated. The differences in diets composition significantly (p < 0.01) affected all these parameters. In particular, the animals fed diet 1 and diet 3 showed higher values of DWG (0.91 and 0.88 g/d vs. 0.68 and 0.66 for group 2 and 4) and DMI (5.8 and 5.3 kg/d, respectively) compared to the other groups (4.3 and 4.4 kg/d for group 2 and 4), as well as a higher final body weight (370.5 and 334.1 kg for group 1 and 3 vs. 272.8 and 273.1 kg of group 2 and 4, respectively). Indeed, the supplementation with Yea-Sacc® at the dosage of 1 × 10E8 did not affect buffaloes' growth performance

Strong, bold, and kind : Self-control and cooperation in social dilemmas

Financial support from the Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet), from Formas through the program Human Cooperation to Manage Natural Resources (COMMONS), and the Ideenfonds of the University of Munich is gratefully acknowledged.We develop a model that relates self-control to cooperation patterns in social dilemmas, and we test the model in a laboratory public goods experiment. As predicted, we find a robust association between stronger self-control and higher levels of cooperation, and the association is at its strongest when the decision maker’s risk aversion is low and the cooperation levels of others high. We interpret the pattern as evidence for the notion that individuals may experience an impulse to act in self-interest—and that cooperative behavior benefits from self-control. Free-riders differ from other contributor types only in their tendency not to have identified a self-control conflict in the first place.PostprintPeer reviewe

Forage:Concentrate Ratio Effects on In Vivo Digestibility and In Vitro Degradability of Horse’s Diet

Determination of digestibility represents the first step for the evaluation of the net energy content of feed for livestock animals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in vivo digestibility and in vitro degradability of five diets characterized by different forage/concentrate ratios (F:C) in horses. The in vitro degradability was determined by the Gas Production Technique (GPT), using as an inoculum source the feces of the same subjects used for the in vivo test. Five diets consisting of poliphyte hay, straw and grains of barley and oats with a different F:C ratio [90/10 (Diet 1); 78/22 (Diet 2); 68/32 (Diet 3); 60/40 (Diet 4); 50/50 (Diet 5) were formulated and administered in succession, starting with Diet 1. In the in vivo results, no significant differences emerged, despite the different F:C content. In in vitro fermentation, four diets out of the five (2, 3, 4, 5) presented a similar trend of the curve of gas production, showing good activity of the fecal micro population during the first hours of incubation. An important correlation between gas and Volatile Fatty Acid (VFA) were found, suggesting that the processes linked to the micro population deriving from the horse’s caecum follow metabolic pathways whose products can be modeled in the same way as for the rumen. The GPT could represent the correct method for studying the nutritional characteristics of feed for horses, using feces as the source of inoculum, even if further investigations must be performed to improve the technique