The Future of Retirement and the Pension System: How the Public's Expectations Vary over Time and across Socio-Economic Groups

We analyze expectations of the Dutch population of ages 25 and older concerning the future generosity state and occupational pensions, the two main pillars of the Dutch pension system. Since the summer of 2006, monthly survey data were collected on the expectations of Dutch households concerning purchasing power of occupational pensions, eligibility and purchasing power of old age social security benefits, and the average retirement age ten or twenty years from now. We investigate how these expectations have changed over time and how they vary with socio-economic characteristics. Exploiting the fact that we have data until September 2010, we also analyze the effect of the recent financial and economic crisis. We find significant differences in expectations of different socio-economic groups, mainly suggesting that groups who are probably better informed were also more pessimistic.subjective probabilities, old age social security, occupational pensions

Flexible approximation of subjective expectations using probability questions: an application to the investment game

We use spline interpolation to approximate the subjective cumulative distribution function of an economic agent over the future realization of a continuous (possibly censored) random variable. The method proposed exploits information collected using a small number of probability questions on expectations and requires a weak prior knowledge of the shape of the underlying distribution. We find that eliciting 4 or 5 points on the cumulative distribution function of an agent is sufficient to accurately approximate a wide variety of underlying distributions. We show that estimated moments of general functions of the random variable can be computed analytically and/or using standard simulation techniques. We illustrate the usefulness of the method by estimating a simple model to asses the impact of expectations on investment decisions in a commonly used trust game

Statistical Power of Within and Between-Subjects Designs in Economic Experiments

This paper discusses the choice of the number of participants for within-subjects (WS) designs and between-subjects (BS) designs based on simulations of statistical power allowing for different numbers of experimental periods. We illustrate the usefulness of the approach in the context of field experiments on gift exchange. Our results suggest that a BS design requires between 4 to 8 times more subjects than a WS design to reach an acceptable level of statistical power. Moreover, the predicted minimal sample sizes required to correctly detect a treatment effect with a probability of 80% greatly exceed sizes currently used in the literature. Our results suggest that adding experimental periods in an experiment can substantially increase the statistical power of a WS design, but have very little effect on the statistical power of the BS design. Finally, we discuss issues relating to numerical computation and present the powerBBK package programmed for STATA. This package allows users to conduct their own analysis of power for the different designs (WS and BS), conditional on user specified experimental parameters (true effect size, sample size, number of periods, noise levels for control and treatment, error distributions), statistical tests (parametric and nonparametric), and estimation methods (linear regression, binary choice models (probit and logit), censored regression models (tobit))

The future of retirement and the pension system: How the public's expectations vary over time and across socio-economic groups

We analyze expectations of the Dutch population ages 25 and older concerning future generosity of state and occupational pensions, the main pillars of the Dutch pension system. We use rotating panel data with monthly observations from 2006 until 2012 on individuals' subjective expectations concerning changes between now and ten or twenty years from now in the purchasing power of occupational pensions and of old age social security benefits, the eligibility age for old age social security benefits, and the average retirement age ten or twenty years from now. We find significant variation in expectations across socio-economic groups, with more pessimistic expectations amongst higher educated and higher income groups. We also find that expectations have gradually become more pessimistic since the onset of the economic and financial crisis, in line with the plans for reforms that will reduce pension generosity

Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risks

In this paper, we compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual-survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived mortality risk. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves which feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups, evaluate subjective expectations of joint survival and widowhood by household, and compare objective and subjective mortality with standard life-cycle models of consumption

Transcriptome adaptation of the bovine mammary gland to diets rich in unsaturated fatty acids shows greater impact of linseed oil over safflower oil on gene expression and metabolic pathways

Differentially expressed genes implicated in apoptosis of cows in LSO treatment as compared to the same cows on the control diet. Expression direction of several genes predicted to decrease apoptosis. (DOCX 35 kb

Utilisation de granulats recyclés et d’agents expansifs pour la production de matériaux cimentaires écoresponsables et durables

La disponibilité des ressources pour le secteur de la construction devient de plus en plus incertaine, tandis que la quantité de déchets de construction et de démolition augmente. Réconcilier les besoins et les ressources secondaires, tout en contribuant à la réutilisation, comporte d’importants défis scientifiques et techniques. Les obstacles juridiques et réglementaires doivent être surmontés pour permettre une véritable économie circulaire dans le secteur de la construction. Il devient par ailleurs de plus en plus difficile de garantir la disponibilité de sable de bonne qualité pour la production de béton. Le sable de béton recyclé, lorsqu’il est adéquatement produit, peut constituer une alternative valable aux mortiers et bétons de faible et moyenne résistance. Les propriétés techniques des sables recyclés sont analysées et des propositions sont formulées pour augmenter leur taux d’incorporation dans les mortiers. Le processus de carbonatation accélérée semble améliorer les propriétés des sables recyclés (avant et/ou après fabrication du béton). Les agents expansifs peuvent contribuer à minimiser les effets nuisibles du retrait, potentiellement exacerbé dans les mélanges contenant des sables recyclés. À long terme, une utilisation plus large et plus systématique des matériaux recyclés nécessite des réglementations et des spécifications adaptées.MORE² - Développement de MOrtiers à REtrait compensé avec des sables de REcyclage11. Sustainable cities and communitie