Credit cycles and macro fundamentals

We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro economic fundamentals in an intensity based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980–2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We relate this cycle to the business cycle, bank lending conditions, and financial market variables. In line with earlier studies, these variables appear to explain part of the credit cycle. As our main contribution, we test for the correct dynamic specification of these models. In all cases, the hypothesis of correct dynamic specification is strongly rejected. Moreover, accounting for dynamic mis-specification, many of the variables thought to explain the credit cycle, turn out to be insignificant. The main exceptions are GDP growth, and to some extent stock returns and stock return volatilities. Their economic significance appears low, however. This raises the puzzle of what macro-economic fundamentals explain default and rating dynamics. JEL Classification: G11, G2

GOLVEN peptide signalling through RGI receptors and MPK6 restricts asymmetric cell division during lateral root initiation

During lateral root initiation, lateral root founder cells undergo asymmetric cell divisions that generate daughter cells with different sizes and fates, a prerequisite for correct primordium organogenesis. An excess of the GLV6/RGF8 peptide disrupts these initial asymmetric cell divisions, resulting in more symmetric divisions and the failure to achieve lateral root organogenesis. Here, we show that loss-of-function GLV6 and its homologue GLV10 increase asymmetric cell divisions during lateral root initiation, and we identified three members of the RGF1 INSENSITIVE/RGF1 receptor subfamily as likely GLV receptors in this process. Through a suppressor screen, we found that MITOGEN-ACTIVATED PROTEIN KINASE6 is a downstream regulator of the GLV pathway. Our data indicate that GLV6 and GLV10 act as inhibitors of asymmetric cell divisions and signal through RGF1 INSENSITIVE receptors and MITOGEN-ACTIVATED PROTEIN KINASE6 to restrict the number of initial asymmetric cell divisions that take place during lateral root initiation. The authors demonstrate the negative role of GOLVEN peptides during lateral root initiation in Arabidopsis, at the very early stage of the first asymmetric cell division of lateral root founder cells, and identify the receptors for these peptides

Default policies for global optimisation of noisy functions with severe noise

Global optimisation of unknown noisy functions is a daunting task that appears in domains ranging from games to control problems to meta-parameter optimisation for machine learning. We show how to incorporate heuristics to Stochastic Simultaneous Optimistic Optimization (STOSOO), a global optimisation algorithm that has very weak requirements from the function. In our case, heuristics come in the form of Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). The new algorithm, termed Guided STOSOO (STOSOO-G), combines the ability of CMA-ES for fast local convergence (due to the algorithm following the “natural” gradient) and the global optimisation abilities of STOSOO. We compare all three algorithms in the “harder” parts of the Comparing Continuous Optimisers on Black-Box Optimization Benchmarking benchmark suite, which provides a default set of functions for testing. We show that our approach keeps the best of both worlds, i.e. the almost optimal exploration/exploitation of STOSOO with the local optimisation strength of CMA-ES

Improving contemporary approaches to the master planning process.

Master-planning has had a strong revival in recent years. However, significant demographic and social changes are on-going amidst the constraints of the current economic stagnation, the policy of reduced public spending and the drive to respond to environmental imperatives. These conditions challenge the feasibility of the application of past master-planning practice. The way we conceive of master-planning now requires re-visiting. The traditional perspective of master-planning as a design-led activity concerned with the architectural form of buildings, spaces and infrastructures is out-dated and inadequate to coordinating the plural processes of negotiating sustainable place development which, in addition to realising a visually pleasing townscape, critically satisfies social, functional, economic and environmental requirements. Masterplanning requires both a business planning component, without which there is no delivery, and a governance component, without which the physical strategy has no legitimacy. A more adaptive master-planning approach is required. The paper proposes how a flexible master-planning process can provide a basis of a suitable approach for the development of sustainable settlements. Published in Proceedings of the ICE - Urban Design and Planning, Vol 167, Issue 1, October 2013. Permission is granted by ICE Publishing to print one copy for personal use. Any other use of this PDF file is subject to reprint fees.</p

A Systematic Review of Mosquito Coils and Passive Emanators: Defining Recommendations for Spatial Repellency Testing Methodologies.

Mosquito coils, vaporizer mats and emanators confer protection against mosquito bites through the spatial action of emanated vapor or airborne pyrethroid particles. These products dominate the pest control market; therefore, it is vital to characterize mosquito responses elicited by the chemical actives and their potential for disease prevention. The aim of this review was to determine effects of mosquito coils and emanators on mosquito responses that reduce human-vector contact and to propose scientific consensus on terminologies and methodologies used for evaluation of product formats that could contain spatial chemical actives, including indoor residual spraying (IRS), long lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and insecticide treated materials (ITMs). PubMed, (National Centre for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), U.S. National Library of Medicine, NIH), MEDLINE, LILAC, Cochrane library, IBECS and Armed Forces Pest Management Board Literature Retrieval System search engines were used to identify studies of pyrethroid based coils and emanators with key-words "Mosquito coils" "Mosquito emanators" and "Spatial repellents". It was concluded that there is need to improve statistical reporting of studies, and reach consensus in the methodologies and terminologies used through standardized testing guidelines. Despite differing evaluation methodologies, data showed that coils and emanators induce mortality, deterrence, repellency as well as reduce the ability of mosquitoes to feed on humans. Available data on efficacy outdoors, dose-response relationships and effective distance of coils and emanators is inadequate for developing a target product profile (TPP), which will be required for such chemicals before optimized implementation can occur for maximum benefits in disease control

SerpinB2 regulates stromal remodelling and local invasion in pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer has a devastating prognosis, with an overall 5-year survival rate of ~8%, restricted treatment options and characteristic molecular heterogeneity. SerpinB2 expression, particularly in the stromal compartment, is associated with reduced metastasis and prolonged survival in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and our genomic analysis revealed that SERPINB2 is frequently deleted in PDAC. We show that SerpinB2 is required by stromal cells for normal collagen remodelling in vitro, regulating fibroblast interaction and engagement with collagen in the contracting matrix. In a pancreatic cancer allograft model, co-injection of PDAC cancer cells and SerpinB2(-/-) mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) resulted in increased tumour growth, aberrant remodelling of the extracellular matrix (ECM) and increased local invasion from the primary tumour. These tumours also displayed elevated proteolytic activity of the primary biochemical target of SerpinB2-urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA). In a large cohort of patients with resected PDAC, we show that increasing uPA mRNA expression was significantly associated with poorer survival following pancreatectomy. This study establishes a novel role for SerpinB2 in the stromal compartment in PDAC invasion through regulation of stromal remodelling and highlights the SerpinB2/uPA axis for further investigation as a potential therapeutic target in pancreatic cancer

The political economy of competitiveness and social mobility

Social mobility has become a mainstream political and media issue in recent years in the United Kingdom. This article suggests that part of the reason for this is that it can serve as a mechanism to discuss policy concerns that appear to be about social justice without questioning important aspects of neo-liberal political economy. The article charts the policy rhetoric on social mobility under both New Labour and the current Coalition Government. It is argued first that under New Labour the apparent commitment to social mobility was in fact subsumed beneath the pursuit of neo-liberal competitiveness, albeit imperfectly realised in policy. Second, the article suggests that under the Coalition Government the commitment to raising levels of social mobility has been retained and the recently published Strategy for Social Mobility promises that social mobility is what the Coalition means when it argues that the austerity programme is balanced with ‘fairness’. Third, however, the Strategy makes clear that the Coalition define social mobility in narrower terms than the previous government. It is argued here that in narrowing the definition the connection with the idea of competitiveness, while still clearly desirable for the Coalition, is weakened. Fourth, a brief analysis of the Coalition's main policy announcements provides little evidence to suggest that even the narrow definition set out in the Strategy is being seriously pursued. Fifth, the international comparative evidence suggests that any strategy aimed at genuinely raising the level of social mobility would need to give much more serious consideration to narrowing levels of inequality. Finally, it is concluded that when considered in the light of the arguments above, the Strategy for Social Mobility – and therefore ‘Fairness’ itself – is merely a discursive legitimation of the wider political economy programme of austerity

A 15.65 solar mass black hole in an eclipsing binary in the nearby spiral galaxy Messier 33

Stellar-mass black holes are discovered in X-ray emitting binary systems, where their mass can be determined from the dynamics of their companion stars. Models of stellar evolution have difficulty producing black holes in close binaries with masses >10 solar masses, which is consistent with the fact that the most massive stellar black holes known so all have masses within 1 sigma of 10 solar masses. Here we report a mass of 15.65 +/- 1.45 solar masses for the black hole in the recently discovered system M33 X-7, which is located in the nearby galaxy Messier 33 (M33) and is the only known black hole that is in an eclipsing binary. In order to produce such a massive black hole, the progenitor star must have retained much of its outer envelope until after helium fusion in the core was completed. On the other hand, in order for the black hole to be in its present 3.45 day orbit about its 70.0 +/- 6.9 solar mass companion, there must have been a ``common envelope'' phase of evolution in which a significant amount of mass was lost from the system. We find the common envelope phase could not have occured in M33 X-7 unless the amount of mass lost from the progenitor during its evolution was an order of magnitude less than what is usually assumed in evolutionary models of massive stars.Comment: To appear in Nature October 18, 2007. Four figures (one color figure degraded). Differs slightly from published version. Supplementary Information follows in a separate postin

ICT Infrastructure and It’s Impact on National Development: A Research Direction for Africa

Discussions on Development that encompasses how ICTs can make a difference in climate, political, health disturbances and business environment require a multidisciplinary approach which demand contributions from IS community, the private sector, development agencies, practitioner and other academia. This would enable the development community to identify the objectives of technology for empowerment and how they should be achieved in the practice of national development. This study serves as a response to the call for more macro/micro level policy research on the role of ICT on national development. The paper reviews the previous research in this domain and proposes a research direction for macro/micro level impact of ICT on national development on the Africa continent

The Echinococcus canadensis (G7) genome: A key knowledge of parasitic platyhelminth human diseases

Background: The parasite Echinococcus canadensis (G7) (phylum Platyhelminthes, class Cestoda) is one of the causative agents of echinococcosis. Echinococcosis is a worldwide chronic zoonosis affecting humans as well as domestic and wild mammals, which has been reported as a prioritized neglected disease by the World Health Organisation. No genomic data, comparative genomic analyses or efficient therapeutic and diagnostic tools are available for this severe disease. The information presented in this study will help to understand the peculiar biological characters and to design species-specific control tools. Results: We sequenced, assembled and annotated the 115-Mb genome of E. canadensis (G7). Comparative genomic analyses using whole genome data of three Echinococcus species not only confirmed the status of E. canadensis (G7) as a separate species but also demonstrated a high nucleotide sequences divergence in relation to E. granulosus (G1). The E. canadensis (G7) genome contains 11,449 genes with a core set of 881 orthologs shared among five cestode species. Comparative genomics revealed that there are more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between E. canadensis (G7) and E. granulosus (G1) than between E. canadensis (G7) and E. multilocularis. This result was unexpected since E. canadensis (G7) and E. granulosus (G1) were considered to belong to the species complex E. granulosus sensu lato. We described SNPs in known drug targets and metabolism genes in the E. canadensis (G7) genome. Regarding gene regulation, we analysed three particular features: CpG island distribution along the three Echinococcus genomes, DNA methylation system and small RNA pathway. The results suggest the occurrence of yet unknown gene regulation mechanisms in Echinococcus. Conclusions: This is the first work that addresses Echinococcus comparative genomics. The resources presented here will promote the study of mechanisms of parasite development as well as new tools for drug discovery. The availability of a high-quality genome assembly is critical for fully exploring the biology of a pathogenic organism. The E. canadensis (G7) genome presented in this study provides a unique opportunity to address the genetic diversity among the genus Echinococcus and its particular developmental features. At present, there is no unequivocal taxonomic classification of Echinococcus species; however, the genome-wide SNPs analysis performed here revealed the phylogenetic distance among these three Echinococcus species. Additional cestode genomes need to be sequenced to be able to resolve their phylogeny.Fil: Maldonado, Lucas Luciano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica; ArgentinaFil: Assis, Juliana. Fundación Oswaldo Cruz; BrasilFil: Gomes Araújo, Flávio M.. Fundación Oswaldo Cruz; BrasilFil: Salim, Anna C. M.. Fundación Oswaldo Cruz; BrasilFil: Macchiaroli, Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica; ArgentinaFil: Cucher, Marcela Alejandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica; ArgentinaFil: Camicia, Federico. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica; ArgentinaFil: Fox, Adolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica; ArgentinaFil: Rosenzvit, Mara Cecilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica; ArgentinaFil: Oliveira, Guilherme. Instituto Tecnológico Vale; Brasil. Fundación Oswaldo Cruz; BrasilFil: Kamenetzky, Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Médica; Argentin