Indian Farmers' Valuation of Yield Distributions: Will poor farmers value 'pro-poor' seeds?

Potential poverty traps among the rural poor suggest a need to reduce poor farmers?vulnerability by stabilizing crop yields and limiting yield losses. Advances in biotechnology will help address this need directly with crops that tolerate climate fluctuation or resist biotic stresses. Evaluating ex ante how farmers will value these "poor" seeds is important for delivery design, but also challenging. This paper describes an experimental economic approach to understanding farmers?valuation of such seeds. Using data from a survey and experiment, I assess Indian farmers?valuation of changes in the mean, variance, and skewness of payoff distributions. These farmers value increases in expected value, but seem indifferent about higher moment changes in payoff distributions. Farmer traits such as wealth and risk exposure affect their valuation of these changes only mildly. While various limitations to the experimental approach must qualify practical implications of these findings, the experiment demonstrates the viability of conducting valuation experiments with open-ended questions in developing countries.Poverty, Risk, Biotechnology, Experimental Economics

ABC, 123: Can you text me now? The Impact of a Mobile Phone Literacy Program on Educational Outcomes.

We report the short-term results from a randomized evaluation of a mobile phone literacy and numeracy program (Project ABC) in Niger, in which adult literacy students learned how to use mobile phones as part of a literacy and numeracy class. Students in ABC villages showed substantial gains in numeracy exam scores. There is also evidence of heterogeneity in program effects across regions, suggesting the impact is context dependent. These results were stronger in one region, for women and for participants younger than 45. There was also evidence of persistent impacts: six months after the end of the first year of classes, students in ABC villages retained what they had learned better than the non-ABC students. These effects do not appear to be driven by differences in teacher quality and motivation, nor student attendance.Education; literacy; information technology; program evaluation; Nigeria

Drought Risk and Drought Response in Morocco: Vulnerability, Risk Perceptions and Drought Coping Among Rainfed Cereal Farmers

drought, coping, vulnerability, risk, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty, Risk and Uncertainty,

Average vs. Marginal Risk Aversion: Reconciling Simultaneously Risk Averse and Risk Loving Behavior

Risk and Uncertainty,

Combining Consumer Valuation Research with Sensory Science Techniques: A Laboratory Experiment

In this research, we integrated an experimental auction with sensory science techniques—namely, trained sensory panels used to analyze the sensory attributes of wines—to examine the effects of objective and sensory information in the market for California-produced Cabernet Sauvignons. The experiment permitted observation of consumer valuation for sensory attributes of wine, appellations, expert ratings, and wineries. Participants submitted bids each time they received new information about the wines. The balanced experimental design permits evaluation of the effects of consumer characteristics on attribute valuation. We had 236 people participate in the research, which consisted of nine rounds of bidding and one round of hedonic liking scores. Rounds 5-9 repeated the structure of information released in rounds 1-4, but added sensory information, yielding 472 observations for each type of information (e.g. appellation, expert rating, winery). We obtain a total of 8496 valuations, or bids and 944 hedonic “liking” ratings, as well as demographic information, wine consumption data, and a wine knowledge score for each consumer. The results of the research agree with many of the previously held notions about valuation of wine by consumers. Participants value Cabernet Sauvignons from Napa Valley and Sonoma County and their sub-appellations more than wines labeled with the California appellation. Bids for wines rated by experts such as the Wine Advocate (Robert Parker) or Wine Spectator increased as the experts’ ratings increased. However, we also find that consumer characteristics are very important in explaining WTP for wine attributes. The contributions of prestigious appellations to the value of Cabernet Sauvignons depended on consumer characteristics. Willingness to pay was highly correlated with sensory evaluation, but even after tasting the wine, appellation and expert ratings still mattered for WTP. Overall, the research describes a significant amount of heterogeneity in the preferences for sensory characteristics of wine, and that individual characteristics systematically explain many of the differences in valuation of wine attributes.Experimental Economics, Willingness to Pay, WTP, Wine, Consumer Valuation, Hedonic Pricing, Sensory Analysis, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Integrating Economic Analysis with a Randomized Controlled Trial: Willingness-to-Pay for a New Maternal Nutrient Supplement

Maternal nutrition during pregnancy can have significant implications for a child’s prenatal growth and development, and undernutrition experienced during the prenatal period increases the risk of early childhood morbidity and mortality and can permanently impair a child’s physical growth and cognitive development. We use new data from Ghana generated using contingent valuation and experimental auction techniques to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for LNS, a new nutrient supplement aimed at preventing maternal undernutrition during pregnancy. We also explore the relative importance of individual and household characteristics as well as information about the long-term benefits of preventing undernutrition on WTP. We find that WTP is positive for a large majority of individuals in our samples, and the level of WTP varies significantly with individual and household characteristics including gender, household food insecurity, and household expenditures. These findings suggest important policy implications for the development of delivery options and pricing mechanisms for LNS.Economic Development, Nutrition, Willingness-to-Pay, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, International Development,

Does Resource Commercialization Induce Local Conservation? A Cautionary Tale From Southwestern Morocco

Ecotourism, bioprospecting and non-timber product marketing have been promoted recently as market-based instruments for environment protection, but without sound understanding of the resulting net conservation effects. We present evidence on the local conservation effects of recent argan oil commercialization in Morocco, which seems a promising case study in conservation through resource commercialization. Our empirical analysis shows, however, that resource commercialization is not creating strong net conservation incentives because assumptions implicit in the prevailing logic prove incorrect in this case. Generally, the experience of southwestern Morocco provides a cautionary tale about the assumed efficacy of conservation strategies founded on resource commercialization.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

ABC, 123: The Impact of a Mobile Phone Literacy Program on Educational Outcomes

CGD non-resident fellow Jenny Aker and co-authors report on the results from a randomized evaluation of a mobile phone education program (Project ABC) in Niger, in which adult students learned how to use mobile phones as part of a literacy and numeracy class. Overall, students demonstrated substantial improvements in literacy and numeracy test scores. There is also evidence of persistent impacts: six months after the end of the first year of classes, students in the program retained what they had learned better than others. The effects do not appear to be driven by differences in teacher quality or in teacher and student attendance. The results suggest that simple and relatively cheap information and communication technology can serve as an effective and sustainable learning tool for rural populations.Education

Household demand persistence for child micronutrient supplementation.

Addressing early-life micronutrient deficiencies can improve short- and long-term outcomes. In most contexts, private supply chains will be key to effective and efficient preventative supplementation. With established vendors, we conducted a 60-week market trial for a food-based micronutrient supplement in rural Burkina Faso with randomized price and non-price treatments. Repeat purchases - critical for effective supplementation - are extremely price sensitive. Loyalty cards boost demand more than price discounts, particularly in non-poor households where the father is the cardholder. A small minority of households achieved sufficient supplementation for their children through purely retail distribution, suggesting the need for more creative public-private delivery platforms informed by insights into household demand persistence and heterogeneity

STOCHASTIC WEALTH DYNAMICS AND RISK MANAGEMENT AMONG A POOR POPULATION

The literature on economic growth and development has focused considerable attention on questions of risk management and the possibility of multiple equilibria associated with poverty traps. We use herd history data collected among pastoralists in southern Ethiopia to study stochastic wealth dynamics among a very poor population. These data yield several novel findings. Although covariate rainfall shocks plainly matter, household-specific factors, including own herd size, account for most observed variability in wealth dynamics. Despite longstanding conventional wisdom about common property grazing lands, we find no statistical support for the tragedy of the commons hypothesis. It appears that past studies may have conflated costly self-insurance with stocking rate externalities. Such self-insurance is important in this setting because weak livestock markets and meager social insurance cause wealth to fluctuate largely in response to biophysical shocks. These shocks move households between multiple dynamic wealth equilibria toward which households converge following nonconvex path dynamics. The lowest equilibrium is consistent with the notion of a poverty trap. These findings have broad implications for the design of development and relief strategies among a poor population extraordinarily vulnerable to climatic shocks.common property, covariate risk, Ethiopia, idiosyncratic risk, poverty traps, social insurance, Risk and Uncertainty, O1, Q12,