Heterogeneous volatility cascade in financial markets

Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in the next time period is a measure of the response function of the market participants. This correlation shows explicitly the heterogeneous structure of the market according to the characteristic time horizons of the differents agents. It reveals a volatility cascade from long to short time horizons, with a structure different from the one observed in turbulence. Moreover, we have developed a new ARCH-type model which incorporates the different groups of agents, with their characteristic memory. This model reproduces well the empirical response function, and allows us to quantify the importance of each group.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures, To be published in Physica

Nova light curves from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) - II. The extended catalogue

We present the results from observing nine Galactic novae in eruption with the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) between 2004 and 2009. While many of these novae reached peak magnitudes that were either at or approaching the detection limits of SMEI, we were still able to produce light curves that in many cases contained more data at and around the initial rise, peak, and decline than those found in other variable star catalogs. For each nova, we obtained a peak time, maximum magnitude, and for several an estimate of the decline time (t2). Interestingly, although of lower quality than those found in Hounsell et al. (2010a), two of the light curves may indicate the presence of a pre-maximum halt. In addition the high cadence of the SMEI instrument has allowed the detection of low amplitude variations in at least one of the nova light curves

Should Research Ethics Encourage the Production of Cost-Effective Interventions?

This project considers whether and how research ethics can contribute to the provision of cost-effective medical interventions. Clinical research ethics represents an underexplored context for the promotion of cost-effectiveness. In particular, although scholars have recently argued that research on less-expensive, less-effective interventions can be ethical, there has been little or no discussion of whether ethical considerations justify curtailing research on more expensive, more effective interventions. Yet considering cost-effectiveness at the research stage can help ensure that scarce resources such as tissue samples or limited subject popula- tions are employed where they do the most good; can support parallel efforts by providers and insurers to promote cost-effectiveness; and can ensure that research has social value and benefits subjects. I discuss and rebut potential objections to the consideration of cost-effectiveness in research, including the difficulty of predicting effectiveness and cost at the research stage, concerns about limitations in cost-effectiveness analysis, and worries about overly limiting researchers’ freedom. I then consider the advantages and disadvantages of having certain participants in the research enterprise, including IRBs, advisory committees, sponsors, investigators, and subjects, consider cost-effectiveness. The project concludes by qualifiedly endorsing the consideration of cost-effectiveness at the research stage. While incorporating cost-effectiveness considerations into the ethical evaluation of human subjects research will not on its own ensure that the health care system realizes cost-effectiveness goals, doing so nonetheless represents an important part of a broader effort to control rising medical costs

Postcopulatory sexual selection

The female reproductive tract is where competition between the sperm of different males takes place, aided and abetted by the female herself. Intense postcopulatory sexual selection fosters inter-sexual conflict and drives rapid evolutionary change to generate a startling diversity of morphological, behavioural and physiological adaptations. We identify three main issues that should be resolved to advance our understanding of postcopulatory sexual selection. We need to determine the genetic basis of different male fertility traits and female traits that mediate sperm selection; identify the genes or genomic regions that control these traits; and establish the coevolutionary trajectory of sexes

Boolean Dynamics with Random Couplings

This paper reviews a class of generic dissipative dynamical systems called N-K models. In these models, the dynamics of N elements, defined as Boolean variables, develop step by step, clocked by a discrete time variable. Each of the N Boolean elements at a given time is given a value which depends upon K elements in the previous time step. We review the work of many authors on the behavior of the models, looking particularly at the structure and lengths of their cycles, the sizes of their basins of attraction, and the flow of information through the systems. In the limit of infinite N, there is a phase transition between a chaotic and an ordered phase, with a critical phase in between. We argue that the behavior of this system depends significantly on the topology of the network connections. If the elements are placed upon a lattice with dimension d, the system shows correlations related to the standard percolation or directed percolation phase transition on such a lattice. On the other hand, a very different behavior is seen in the Kauffman net in which all spins are equally likely to be coupled to a given spin. In this situation, coupling loops are mostly suppressed, and the behavior of the system is much more like that of a mean field theory. We also describe possible applications of the models to, for example, genetic networks, cell differentiation, evolution, democracy in social systems and neural networks.Comment: 69 pages, 16 figures, Submitted to Springer Applied Mathematical Sciences Serie

Levetiracetam in spinal cord injury pain: a randomized controlled trial

Udgivelsesdato: 2009-Jun-9Study design:A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover, multicenter trial. A 1-week baseline period was followed by two treatment periods of 5 weeks duration with levetiracetam increased from 500 mg b.i.d. to a maximum of 1500 mg b.i.d. separated by a 1-week washout period.Objectives:The objective of the study was primarily to evaluate the efficacy of the anticonvulsant levetiracetam in patients with spinal cord injury (SCI) at- and below-level pain and secondarily to evaluate the effect on spasm severity.Setting:Outpatients at two spinal cord units and a pain center.Methods:Patients were allowed to continue their usual pain treatment at a constant dose. The primary outcome measure was the change in median daily pain score (on a 0-10 point numeric rating scale) from 1-week baseline period to the last week of each treatment period. Secondary outcome measures included pain relief of at- and below-level pain, allodynia, spasms and spasticity.Results:A total of 36 patients with SCI at- and or below-level pain were enrolled. Of these, 24 patients completed the trial. We found no effect of levetiracetam on the primary (P=0.46) or any of the secondary outcome measures. Only two patients continued levetiracetam treatment following the trial, and one patient was still in levetiracetam treatment at the 6-month follow-up. Levetiracetam was generally well tolerated with no serious adverse events.Conclusions:Levetiracetam does not relieve neuropathic pain or spasm severity following spinal cord injury.Spinal Cord advance online publication, 9 June 2009; doi:10.1038/sc.2009.55

The 'knowledge politics' of democratic peace theory

How do academic ideas influence US foreign policy, under what conditions and with what consequences? This article traces the rise, ‘securitisation’ and political consequences of democratic peace theory (DPT) in the United States by exploring the work of Doyle, Diamond and Fukuyama. Ideas influence US foreign policy under different circumstances, but are most likely to do either during and after crises when the policy environment permits ‘new thinking’, or when these ideas have been developed through state-connected elite knowledge networks, or when they are (or appear paradigmatically congenial to) foreign policymakers’ mindsets, or, finally, when they become institutionally-embedded. The appropriation of DPT by foreign policymakers has categorised the world into antagonistic blocs – democratic/non-democratic zones of peace/turmoil – as the corollary to a renewed American mission to make the world ‘safer’ through ‘democracy’ promotion. The roles of networked organic intellectuals – in universities and think tanks, for instance – were particularly important in elevating DPT from the academy to national security managers

Snapshot Provisioning of Cloud Application Stacks to Face Traffic Surges

Traffic surges, like the Slashdot effect, occur when a web application is overloaded by a huge number of requests, potentially leading to unavailability. Unfortunately, such traffic variations are generally totally unplanned, of great amplitude, within a very short period, and a variable delay to return to a normal regime. In this report, we introduce PeakForecast as an elastic middleware solution to detect and absorb a traffic surge. In particular, PeakForecast can, from a trace of queries received in the last seconds, minutes or hours, to detect if the underlying system is facing a traffic surge or not, and then estimate the future traffic using a forecast model with an acceptable precision, thereby calculating the number of resources required to absorb the remaining traffic to come. We validate our solution by experimental results demonstrating that it can provide instantaneous elasticity of resources for traffic surges observed on the Japanese version of Wikipedia during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011.Les pics de trafic, tels que l'effet Slashdot, apparaissent lorsqu'une application web doit faire face un nombre important de requêtes qui peut potentiellement entraîner une mise hors service de l'application. Malheureusement, de telles variations de traffic sont en général totalement imprévues et d'une grande amplitude, arrivent pendant une très courte période de temps et le retour à un régime normal prend un délai variable. Dans ce rapport, nous présentons PeakForecast qui est une solution intergicielle élastique pour détecter et absorber les pics de trafic. En particulier, PeakForecast peut, à partir des traces de requêtes reçues dans les dernières secondes, minutes ou heures, détecter si le système sous-jacent fait face ou non à un pic de trafic, estimer le trafic futur en utilisant un modèle de prédiction suffisamment précis, et calculer le nombre de ressources nécessaires à l'absorption du trafic restant à venir. Nous validons notre solution avec des résultats expérimentaux qui démontrent qu'elle fournit une élasticité instantanée des ressources pour des pics de trafic qui ont été observés sur la version japonaise de Wikipedia lors de l'accident nucléaire de Fukushima Daiichi en mars 2011

Facilitation and Competition among Invasive Plants: A Field Experiment with Alligatorweed and Water Hyacinth

Ecosystems that are heavily invaded by an exotic species often contain abundant populations of other invasive species. This may reflect shared responses to a common factor, but may also reflect positive interactions among these exotic species. Armand Bayou (Pasadena, TX) is one such ecosystem where multiple species of invasive aquatic plants are common. We used this system to investigate whether presence of one exotic species made subsequent invasions by other exotic species more likely, less likely, or if it had no effect. We performed an experiment in which we selectively removed exotic rooted and/or floating aquatic plant species and tracked subsequent colonization and growth of native and invasive species. This allowed us to quantify how presence or absence of one plant functional group influenced the likelihood of successful invasion by members of the other functional group. We found that presence of alligatorweed (rooted plant) decreased establishment of new water hyacinth (free-floating plant) patches but increased growth of hyacinth in established patches, with an overall net positive effect on success of water hyacinth. Water hyacinth presence had no effect on establishment of alligatorweed but decreased growth of existing alligatorweed patches, with an overall net negative effect on success of alligatorweed. Moreover, observational data showed positive correlations between hyacinth and alligatorweed with hyacinth, on average, more abundant. The negative effect of hyacinth on alligatorweed growth implies competition, not strong mutual facilitation (invasional meltdown), is occurring in this system. Removal of hyacinth may increase alligatorweed invasion through release from competition. However, removal of alligatorweed may have more complex effects on hyacinth patch dynamics because there were strong opposing effects on establishment versus growth. The mix of positive and negative interactions between floating and rooted aquatic plants may influence local population dynamics of each group and thus overall invasion pressure in this watershed

Highly efficient and robust cathode materials for low-temperature solid oxide fuel cells: PrBa0.5Sr0.5Co2-xFexO5+delta

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) are the cleanest, most efficient, and cost-effective option for direct conversion to electricity of a wide variety of fuels. While significant progress has been made in anode materials with enhanced tolerance to coking and contaminant poisoning, cathodic polarization still contributes considerably to energy loss, more so at lower operating temperatures. Here we report a synergistic effect of co-doping in a cation-ordered double-perovskite material, PrBa 0.5 Sr 0.5 Co 2-x Fe x O 5+??, which has created pore channels that dramatically enhance oxygen ion diffusion and surface oxygen exchange while maintaining excellent compatibility and stability under operating conditions. Test cells based on these cathode materials demonstrate peak power densities ???2.2â�...W cm -2 at 600 C, representing an important step toward commercially viable SOFC technologies.open16