Are Weekly Inflation Forecasts Informative?

Are weekly inflation forecasts informative? Although several central banks review and discuss monetary policy issues on a bi-weekly basis, there have been few attempts by analysts to construct systematic estimates of core inflation that supports such a decision-making schedule. The timeliness of news releases and macroeconomic revisions are recognized to be an important information source in real-time estimation. We incorporate real-time information from macroeconomic releases and revisions into our weekly updates of monthly Swiss core inflation using a common factor procedure. The weekly estimates for Swiss core inflation find that it is worthwhile to update the forecast at least twice a month.Inflation, Common Factors, Sequential Information Flow

Time-Varying Pass-Through from Import Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence from an Event Study with Real-Time Data

This paper analyzes the pass-through from import prices to CPI inflation in real time. Our strategy follows an event-study approach, which compares inflation forecasts before and after import price releases. Inflation forecasts are modelled using a dynamic factor procedure that relies on daily panels of Swiss data. We find strong evidence that monthly import price releases provide important information for CPI inflation forecasts and that the behavior of updated forecasts is consistent with a time-varying pass-through. The robustness of this latter result is underpinned in two ways: an alternative CPI measure that excludes price components subject to administered pricing and panels capturing different levels of information breadth. Besides implying a time-varying pass-through, our empirical findings cast doubt on a prominent role of sticky prices for the low pass-through findings.Common Factors, Pass-Through, Daily Panels

Monthly pass-through ratios

This paper estimates monthly pass-through ratios from import prices to consumer prices in real time. Conventional time series methods impose restrictions to generate exogenous shocks on exchange rates or import prices when estimating pass-through coefficients. Instead, a natural experiment based on data releases defines our shock to foreign prices. Our estimation strategy follows an event-study approach based on monthly releases in import prices. Projections from a dynamic common factor model with daily panels before and after monthly releases of import prices define the shock. This information shock allows us to recover a monthly pass-through ratio. We apply our identification procedure to Swiss prices and find strong evidence that the monthly pass-through ratio is around 0.3. Our real-time estimates yield higher pass-through ratios than time series estimates.Monetary policy ; Econometric models ; Foreign exchange rates ; Prices

Do macroeconomic announcements move inflation forecasts?

This paper presents an empirical strategy that bridges the gap between event studies and macroeconomic forecasts based on common-factor models. Event studies examine the response of financial variables to a market-sensitive "surprise" component using a narrow event window. The authors argue that these features - narrow event window and surprise component - can be easily embedded in common-factor models that study the real-time impact of macroeconomic announcements on key policy variables such as inflation or gross domestic product growth. Demonstrative applications are provided for Swiss inflation that show that (i) the communication of monetary policy announcements generates an asymmetric response for inflation forecasts, (ii) the pass-through effect of import price releases on inflation forecasts is weak, and (iii) macroeconomic releases of real and nominal variables generate nonsynchronized effects for inflation forecasts.Inflation (Finance) ; Forecasting

Time-varying pass-through from import prices to consumer prices: Evidence from an event study with real-time data

This paper analyzes the pass-through from import prices to consumer price index (CPI) inflation in real time. Our strategy follows an event-study approach that compares inflation forecasts before and after import price releases. Inflation forecasts are modeled using a dynamic factor procedure that relies on daily panels of Swiss data. We find strong evidence that monthly import price releases provide important information for CPI inflation forecasts, and that the behavior of updated forecasts is consistent with a time-varying pass-through. The robustness of this latter result is supported by an alternative CPI measure that excludes price components subject to administered pricing as well as by panels capturing difference levels of information breadth. Finally, our empirical findings cast doubt on a prominent role for sticky prices in the low passthrough findings

Self-healing behavior of a polyelectrolyte-based lubricant additive for aqueous lubrication of oxide materials

We report on the self-healing behavior of a polyelectrolyte-based aqueous lubricant additive, poly(l-lysine)-graft-poly(ethylene glycol) (PLL-g-PEG), during aqueous lubrication of an oxide-based tribosystem. Combined pin-on-disk tribometry and fluorescence microscopy experiments have shown that stable lubricating performance was enabled by means of rapid healing of the worn tribopair surface by polymers dissolved in the adjoining bulk lubricant. This rapid ‘self-healing' of PLL-g-PEG is attributed to electrostatic interactions between the polycationic poly(l-lysine) (PLL) backbone of the polymer and negatively charged oxide surface. In contrast, a similar healing effect was not readily achievable in the case of methoxy-poly(ethylene glycol)-trimethylsilylether (Sil-PEG), a lubricant additive that is covalently bonded to the surface prior to tribological stres

Lipidoid-Coated Iron Oxide Nanoparticles for Efficient DNA and siRNA delivery

The safe, targeted and effective delivery of gene therapeutics remains a significant barrier to their broad clinical application. Here we develop a magnetic nucleic acid delivery system composed of iron oxide nanoparticles and cationic lipid-like materials termed lipidoids. Coated nanoparticles are capable of delivering DNA and siRNA to cells in culture. The mean hydrodynamic size of these nanoparticles was systematically varied and optimized for delivery. While nanoparticles of different sizes showed similar siRNA delivery efficiency, nanoparticles of 50–100 nm displayed optimal DNA delivery activity. The application of an external magnetic field significantly enhanced the efficiency of nucleic acid delivery, with performance exceeding that of the commercially available lipid-based reagent, Lipofectamine 2000. The iron oxide nanoparticle delivery platform developed here offers the potential for magnetically guided targeting, as well as an opportunity to combine gene therapy with MRI imaging and magnetic hyperthermia.National Heart, Lung, and Blood InstituteNational Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Program of Excellence in Nanotechnology (PEN) Award, Contract #HHSN268201000045C

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) contrast agents for tumor diagnosis

10.1260/2040-2295.4.1.23Journal of Healthcare Engineering4123-4

Magnetic hyperthermia controlled drug release in the GI tract : solving the problem of detection

Drug delivery to the gastrointestinal (GI) tract is highly challenging due to the harsh environments any drug- delivery vehicle must experience before it releases it’s drug payload. Effective targeted drug delivery systems often rely on external stimuli to effect release, therefore knowing the exact location of the capsule and when to apply an external stimulus is paramount. We present a drug delivery system for the GI tract based on coating standard gelatin drug capsules with a model eicosane- superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticle composite coating, which is activated using magnetic hyperthermia as an on-demand release mechanism to heat and melt the coating. We also show that the capsules can be readily detected via rapid X-ray computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), vital for progressing such a system towards clinical applications. This also offers the opportunity to image the dispersion of the drug payload post release. These imaging techniques also influenced capsule content and design and the delivered dosage form. The ability to easily change design demonstrates the versatility of this system, a vital advantage for modern, patient-specific medicine