Fluctuation induces evolutionary branching in a modeled microbial ecosystem

The impact of environmental fluctuation on species diversity is studied with a model of the evolutionary ecology of microorganisms. We show that environmental fluctuation induces evolutionary branching and assures the consequential coexistence of multiple species. Pairwise invasibility analysis is applied to illustrate the speciation process. We also discuss how fluctuation affects species diversity.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Spatial complementarity and the coexistence of species

Coexistence of apparently similar species remains an enduring paradox in ecology. Spatial structure has been predicted to enable coexistence even when population-level models predict competitive exclusion if it causes each species to limit its own population more than that of its competitor. Nevertheless, existing hypotheses conflict with regard to whether clustering favours or precludes coexistence. The spatial segregation hypothesis predicts that in clustered populations the frequency of intra-specific interactions will be increased, causing each species to be self-limiting. Alternatively, individuals of the same species might compete over greater distances, known as heteromyopia, breaking down clusters and opening space for a second species to invade. In this study we create an individual-based model in homogeneous two-dimensional space for two putative sessile species differing only in their demographic rates and the range and strength of their competitive interactions. We fully characterise the parameter space within which coexistence occurs beyond population-level predictions, thereby revealing a region of coexistence generated by a previously-unrecognised process which we term the triadic mechanism. Here coexistence occurs due to the ability of a second generation of offspring of the rarer species to escape competition from their ancestors. We diagnose the conditions under which each of three spatial coexistence mechanisms operates and their characteristic spatial signatures. Deriving insights from a novel metric — ecological pressure — we demonstrate that coexistence is not solely determined by features of the numerically-dominant species. This results in a common framework for predicting, given any pair of species and knowledge of the relevant parameters, whether they will coexist, the mechanism by which they will do so, and the resultant spatial pattern of the community. Spatial coexistence arises from complementary combinations of traits in each species rather than solely through self-limitation

Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly variable environments will be estimates of their rates of spatial spread and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Using stochastic, stage-structured, integro-difference equation models, we show analytically that invasion speeds are asymptotically normally distributed with a variance that decreases in time. We apply our methods to a simple juvenile-adult model with stochastic variation in reproduction and an illustrative example with published data for the perennial herb, \emph{Calathea ovandensis}. These examples buttressed by additional analysis reveal that increased variability in vital rates simultaneously slow down invasions yet generate greater uncertainty about rates of spatial spread. Moreover, while temporal autocorrelations in vital rates inflate variability in invasion speeds, the effect of these autocorrelations on the average invasion speed can be positive or negative depending on life history traits and how well vital rates ``remember'' the past

Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure

Patterns of local and nonlocal water resource use across the western U.S. determined via stable isotope intercomparisons

In the western U.S., the mismatch between public water demands and natural water availability necessitates large interbasin transfers of water as well as groundwater mining of fossil aquifers. Here we identify probable situations of nonlocal water use in both space and time based on isotopic comparisons between tap waters and potential water resources within hydrologic basins. Our approach, which considers evaporative enrichment of heavy isotopes during storage and distribution, is used to determine the likelihood of local origin for 612 tap water samples collected from across the western U.S. We find that 64% of samples are isotopically distinct from precipitation falling within the local hydrologic basin, a proxy for groundwater with modern recharge, and 31% of samples are isotopically distinct from estimated surface water found within the local basin. Those samples inconsistent with local water sources, which we suggest are likely derived from water imported from other basins or extracted from fossil aquifers, are primarily clustered in southern California, the San Francisco Bay area, and central Arizona. Our isotope-based estimates of nonlocal water use are correlated with both hydrogeomorphic and socioeconomic properties of basins, suggesting that these factors exert a predictable influence on the likelihood that nonlocal waters are used to supply tap water. We use these basin properties to develop a regional model of nonlocal water resource use that predicts (r2 = 0.64) isotopically inferred patterns and allows assessment of total interbasin transfer and/or fossil aquifer extraction volumes across the western U.S.Fil: Good, Stephen P.. University of Utah; Estados UnidosFil: Kennedy, Casey D.. United States Department Of Agriculture. Agriculture Research Service; Estados UnidosFil: Stalker Jeremy C.. Jacksonville University; Estados UnidosFil: Chesson, Lesley A.. IsoForensics; Estados UnidosFil: Valenzuela, Luciano Oscar. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Sociales. Departamento de Arqueología. Laboratorio de Ecología Evolutiva Humana (Sede Quequén); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. University of Utah; Estados UnidosFil: Beasley, Melanie M.. University of California at San Diego; Estados UnidosFil: Ehleringer, James R. University of Utah; Estados UnidosFil: Bowen, Gabriel J.. University of Utah; Estados Unido

Nightly treatment of primary insomnia with prolonged release melatonin for 6 months: a randomized placebo controlled trial on age and endogenous melatonin as predictors of efficacy and safety

<p>Background: Melatonin is extensively used in the USA in a non-regulated manner for sleep disorders. Prolonged release melatonin (PRM) is licensed in Europe and other countries for the short term treatment of primary insomnia in patients aged 55 years and over. However, a clear definition of the target patient population and well-controlled studies of long-term efficacy and safety are lacking. It is known that melatonin production declines with age. Some young insomnia patients also may have low melatonin levels. The study investigated whether older age or low melatonin excretion is a better predictor of response to PRM, whether the efficacy observed in short-term studies is sustained during continued treatment and the long term safety of such treatment.</p> <p>Methods: Adult outpatients (791, aged 18-80 years) with primary insomnia, were treated with placebo (2 weeks) and then randomized, double-blind to 3 weeks with PRM or placebo nightly. PRM patients continued whereas placebo completers were re-randomized 1:1 to PRM or placebo for 26 weeks with 2 weeks of single-blind placebo run-out. Main outcome measures were sleep latency derived from a sleep diary, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Quality of Life (World Health Organzaton-5) Clinical Global Impression of Improvement (CGI-I) and adverse effects and vital signs recorded at each visit.</p> <p>Results: On the primary efficacy variable, sleep latency, the effects of PRM (3 weeks) in patients with low endogenous melatonin (6-sulphatoxymelatonin [6-SMT] ≤8 μg/night) regardless of age did not differ from the placebo, whereas PRM significantly reduced sleep latency compared to the placebo in elderly patients regardless of melatonin levels (-19.1 versus -1.7 min; P = 0.002). The effects on sleep latency and additional sleep and daytime parameters that improved with PRM were maintained or enhanced over the 6-month period with no signs of tolerance. Most adverse events were mild in severity with no clinically relevant differences between PRM and placebo for any safety outcome.</p> <p>Conclusions: The results demonstrate short- and long-term efficacy and safety of PRM in elderly insomnia patients. Low melatonin production regardless of age is not useful in predicting responses to melatonin therapy in insomnia. The age cut-off for response warrants further investigation.</p&gt

The functional response of a generalist predator

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

'To live and die [for] Dixie': Irish civilians and the Confederate States of America

Around 20,000 Irishmen served in the Confederate army in the Civil War. As a result, they left behind, in various Southern towns and cities, large numbers of friends, family, and community leaders. As with native-born Confederates, Irish civilian support was crucial to Irish participation in the Confederate military effort. Also, Irish civilians served in various supporting roles: in factories and hospitals, on railroads and diplomatic missions, and as boosters for the cause. They also, however, suffered in bombardments, sieges, and the blockade. Usually poorer than their native neighbours, they could not afford to become 'refugees' and move away from the centres of conflict. This essay, based on research from manuscript collections, contemporary newspapers, British Consular records, and Federal military records, will examine the role of Irish civilians in the Confederacy, and assess the role this activity had on their integration into Southern communities. It will also look at Irish civilians in the defeat of the Confederacy, particularly when they came under Union occupation. Initial research shows that Irish civilians were not as upset as other whites in the South about Union victory. They welcomed a return to normalcy, and often 'collaborated' with Union authorities. Also, Irish desertion rates in the Confederate army were particularly high, and I will attempt to gauge whether Irish civilians played a role in this. All of the research in this paper will thus be put in the context of the Drew Gilpin Faust/Gary Gallagher debate on the influence of the Confederate homefront on military performance. By studying the Irish civilian experience one can assess how strong the Confederate national experiment was. Was it a nation without a nationalism

Functional traits and phenotypic plasticity modulate species coexistence across contrasting climatic conditions

Functional traits are expected to modulate plant competitive dynamics. However, how traits and their plasticity in response to contrasting environments connect with the mechanisms determining species coexistence remains poorly understood. Here, we couple field experiments under two contrasting climatic conditions to a plant population model describing competitive dynamics between 10 annual plant species in order to evaluate how 19 functional traits, covering physiological, morphological and reproductive characteristics, are associated with species’ niche and fitness differences. We find a rich diversity of univariate and multidimensional associations, which highlight the primary role of traits related to water- and lightuse- efficiency for modulating the determinants of competitive outcomes. Importantly, such traits and their plasticity promote species coexistence across climatic conditions by enhancing stabilizing niche differences and by generating competitive trade-offs between species. Our study represents a significant advance showing how leading dimensions of plant function connect to the mechanisms determining the maintenance of biodiversity