Serial persistence in individual real estate returns in the UK

Persistence of property returns is a topic of perennial interest to fund managers as it suggests that choosing those properties that will perform well in the future is as simple as looking at those that performed well in the past. Consequently, much effort has been expended to determine if such a rule exists in the real estate market. This paper extends earlier studies in US, Australian, and UK markets in two ways. First, this study applies the same methodology originally used in Young and Graff (1996) making the results directly comparable with those in the US and Australian property markets. Second, this study uses a much longer and larger database covering all commercial property data available from the Investment Property Databank (IPD), for the years 1981 to 2002 for as many as 216,758 individual property returns. While the performance results of this study mimic the US and Australian results of greater persistence in the extreme first and fourth quartiles, they also evidence persistence in the moderate second and third quartiles, a notable departure from previous studies. Likewise patterns across property type, location, time, and holding period are remarkably similar leading to the conjecture that behaviors in the practice of commercial real estate investment management are themselves deeply rooted and persistent and perhaps influenced for good or ill by agency effect

Fault diagnosis of operational synchronous digital systems

Diagnosing faults on operational synchronous digital system

Sensitivity analysis Progress report, 1 Mar. - 1 May 1967

Flow graph technique for calculating sensitivity coefficients for electric network

Another look at the relative importance of sectors and regions in determining property returns

This paper re-examines the relative importance of sector and regional effects in determining property returns. Using the largest property database currently available in the world, we decompose the returns on individual properties into a national effect, common to all properties, and a number of sector and regional factors. However, unlike previous studies, we categorise the individual property data into an ever-increasing number of property-types and regions, from a simple 3-by-3 classification, up to a 10 by 63 sector/region classification. In this way we can test the impact that a finer classification has on the sector and regional effects. We confirm the earlier findings of previous studies that sector-specific effects have a greater influence on property returns than regional effects. We also find that the impact of the sector effect is robust across different classifications of sectors and regions. Nonetheless, the more refined sector and regional partitions uncover some interesting sector and regional differences, which were obscured in previous studies. All of which has important implications for property portfolio construction and analysis

Diversity in parasitic nematode genomes: the microRNAs of Brugia pahangi and Haemonchus contortus are largely novel

<b>BACKGROUND:</b> MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play key roles in regulating post-transcriptional gene expression and are essential for development in the free-living nematode Caenorhabditis elegans and in higher organisms. Whether microRNAs are involved in regulating developmental programs of parasitic nematodes is currently unknown. Here we describe the the miRNA repertoire of two important parasitic nematodes as an essential first step in addressing this question. <b>RESULTS:</b> The small RNAs from larval and adult stages of two parasitic species, Brugia pahangi and Haemonchus contortus, were identified using deep-sequencing and bioinformatic approaches. Comparative analysis to known miRNA sequences reveals that the majority of these miRNAs are novel. Some novel miRNAs are abundantly expressed and display developmental regulation, suggesting important functional roles. Despite the lack of conservation in the miRNA repertoire, genomic positioning of certain miRNAs within or close to specific coding genes is remarkably conserved across diverse species, indicating selection for these associations. Endogenous small-interfering RNAs and Piwi-interacting (pi)RNAs, which regulate gene and transposon expression, were also identified. piRNAs are expressed in adult stage H. contortus, supporting a conserved role in germline maintenance in some parasitic nematodes. <b>CONCLUSIONS:</b> This in-depth comparative analysis of nematode miRNAs reveals the high level of divergence across species and identifies novel sequences potentially involved in development. Expression of novel miRNAs may reflect adaptations to different environments and lifestyles. Our findings provide a detailed foundation for further study of the evolution and function of miRNAs within nematodes and for identifying potential targets for intervention

Checkerboard Julia Sets for Rational Maps

In this paper, we consider the family of rational maps \F(z) = z^n + \frac{\la}{z^d}, where $n \geq 2$, $d\geq 1$, and\la \in \bbC. We consider the case where \la lies in the main cardioid of one of the $n-1$ principal Mandelbrot sets in these families. We show that the Julia sets of these maps are always homeomorphic. However, two such maps \F and $F_\mu$ are conjugate on these Julia sets only if the parameters at the centers of the given cardioids satisfy \mu = \nu^{j(d+1)}\la or \mu = \nu^{j(d+1)}\bar{\la} where j \in \bbZ and $\nu$ is an $n-1^{\rm st}$ root of unity. We define a dynamical invariant, which we call the minimal rotation number. It determines which of these maps are are conjugate on their Julia sets, and we obtain an exact count of the number of distinct conjugacy classes of maps drawn from these main cardioids.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures; Changes since March 19 version: added nine figures, fixed one proof, added a section on a group actio

Non-normal real estate return distributions by property type in the UK

Investment risk models with infinite variance provide a better description of distributions of individual property returns in the IPD UK database over the period 1981 to 2003 than normally distributed risk models. This finding mirrors results in the US and Australia using identical methodology. Real estate investment risk is heteroskedastic, but the characteristic exponent of the investment risk function is constant across time – yet it may vary by property type. Asset diversification is far less effective at reducing the impact of non‐systematic investment risk on real estate portfolios than in the case of assets with normally distributed investment risk. The results, therefore, indicate that multi‐risk factor portfolio allocation models based on measures of investment codependence from finite‐variance statistics are ineffective in the real estate contex

Serial persistence in individual real estate returns in the UK

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine individual level property returns to see whether there is evidence of persistence in performance, i.e. a greater than expected probability of well (badly) performing properties continuing to perform well (badly) in subsequent periods. Design/methodology/approach – The same methodology originally used in Young and Graff is applied, making the results directly comparable with those for the US and Australian markets. However, it uses a much larger database covering all UK commercial property data available in the Investment Property Databank (IPD) for the years 1981 to 2002 – as many as 216,758 individual property returns. Findings – While the results of this study mimic the US and Australian results of greater persistence in the extreme first and fourth quartiles, they also evidence persistence in the moderate second and third quartiles, a notable departure from previous studies. Likewise patterns across property type, location, time, and holding period are remarkably similar. Research limitations/implications – The findings suggest that performance persistence is not a feature unique to particular markets, but instead may characterize most advanced real estate investment markets. Originality/value – As well as extending previous research geographically, the paper explores possible reasons for such persistence, consideration of which leads to the conjecture that behaviors in the practice of institutional-grade commercial real estate investment management may themselves be deeply rooted and persistent, and perhaps influenced for good or ill by agency effects. - See more at: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1602884&show=abstract#sthash.hc2pCmC6.dpu

Bifurcations in the Space of Exponential Maps

This article investigates the parameter space of the exponential family $z\mapsto \exp(z)+\kappa$. We prove that the boundary (in \C) of every hyperbolic component is a Jordan arc, as conjectured by Eremenko and Lyubich as well as Baker and Rippon. In fact, we prove the stronger statement that the exponential bifurcation locus is connected in \C, which is an analog of Douady and Hubbard's celebrated theorem that the Mandelbrot set is connected. We show furthermore that $\infty$ is not accessible through any nonhyperbolic ("queer") stable component. The main part of the argument consists of demonstrating a general "Squeezing Lemma", which controls the structure of parameter space near infinity. We also prove a second conjecture of Eremenko and Lyubich concerning bifurcation trees of hyperbolic components.Comment: 29 pages, 3 figures. The main change in the new version is the introduction of Theorem 1.1 on the connectivity of the bifurcation locus, which follows from the results of the original version but was not explicitly stated. Also, some small revisions have been made and references update