Reduced classes and curve counting on surfaces II: calculations

We calculate the stable pair theory of a projective surface $S$. For fixed curve class $\beta\in H^2(S)$ the results are entirely topological, depending on $\beta^2$, $\beta.c_1(S)$, $c_1(S)^2$, $c_2(S)$, $b_1(S)$ \emph{and} invariants of the ring structure on $H^*(S)$ such as the Pfaffian of $\beta$ considered as an element of $\Lambda^2 H^1(S)^*$. Amongst other things, this proves an extension of the G\"ottsche conjecture to non-ample linear systems. We also give conditions under which this calculates the full 3-fold reduced residue theory of $K_S$. This is related to the reduced residue Gromov-Witten theory of $S$ via the MNOP conjecture. When the surface has no holomorphic 2-forms this can be expressed as saying that certain Gromov-Witten invariants of $S$ are topological. Our method uses the results of \cite{KT1} to express the reduced virtual cycle in terms of Euler classes of bundles over a natural smooth ambient space.Comment: 19 pages. Minor correction

A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed

One of the most influential tests of the expectations hypothesis is Mankiw and Miron (1986), who found that the spread between the long-term and short-term rates provided predictive power for the short-term rate before the Fed's founding but not after. They suggested that the failure of the expectations hypothesis after the Fed's founding was due to the Fed's practice of smoothing short-term interest rates. We show that their finding that the expectations hypothesis fares better prior to the Fed's founding is due to the fact that the test they employ tends to generate results that are more favorable to the expectations hypothesis during periods when there is extreme volatility in the short-term rate. (Earlier version titled: The expectations theory and the founding of the Fed: another look at the evidence)Interest rates ; Rational expectations (Economic theory) ; Federal Reserve System - History

Dutch corporate liquidity mangement: New evidence on aggregation

In this paper we investigate Dutch corporate liquidity management in general, and target adjustment behaviour in particular. To this purpose, we use a simple error correction model of corporate liquidity holdings applied to firm-level data for the period 1977-1997. We confirm the existence of long-run liquidity targets at the firm level. We also find that changes in liquidity holdings are driven by short-run shocks as well as the urge to converge towards targeted liquidity levels. The rate of target convergence is higher when we include more firm-specific information in the target. This result supports the idea that increased precision in defining liquidity targets associates with a faster observed rate of target convergence. It also suggests that the slow speeds of adjustment obtained in many macro studies on money demand are artefacts of aggregation bias.corporate liquidity demand, precautionary liquidity

Industries and the bank lending effects of bank credit demand and monetary policy in Germany

This paper presents evidence on the industry effects of bank lending in Germany and identifies the industry effects of bank lending associated with changes in monetary policy and industryspecific bank credit demand. To this end, we estimate individual bank lending functions for 13 manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries and five banking groups using quarterly bank balance sheet and bank lending data for the period 1992:1-2002:4. The evidence from dynamic panel data models shows that industry-specific bank lending growth predominantly responds to changes in industry-specific bank credit demand rather than to changes in monetary policy. In fact, conclusions regarding the bank lending effects of monetary policy are very sensitive to the choice of industry. The empirical results lend strong support to the existence of industry effects of bank lending. Because industries are a prominent source of variation in the bank lending effects of bank credit demand and monetary policy, the paper concludes that the industry composition of bank credit portfolios is an important determinant of bank lending growth and monetary policy effectiveness. --Monetary policy transmission,credit channel,industry structure,dynamic panel data

Orbital Parameters and Chemical Composition of Four White Dwarfs in Post-Common Envelope Binaries

We present FUSE observations of the hot white dwarfs in the post-common envelope binaries Feige 24, EUVE J0720-317, BPM 6502, and EUVE J2013+400. The spectra show numerous photospheric absorption lines which trace the white dwarf orbital motion. We report the detection of C III, O VI, P V, and Si IV in the spectra of Feige 24, EUVE J0720-317 and EUVE J2013+400, and the detection of C III, N II, Si III, Si IV, and Fe III in the spectra of BPM 6502. Abundance measurements support the possibility that white dwarfs in post-common envelope binaries accrete material from the secondary star wind. The FUSE observations of BPM 6502 and EUVE J2013+400 cover a complete binary orbit. We used the FUSE spectra to measure the radial velocities traced by the white dwarf in the four binaries, where the zero-point velocity were fixed using the ISM velocities in the line of sight of the stellar systems. For BPM 6502 we determined a white dwarf velocity semi-amplitude of K_WD = 18.6+/-0.5km/s, and with the velocity semi-amplitude of the red dwarf companion (K_RD = 75.2+/-3.1 km/s), we estimate the mass ratio to be q = 0.25+/-0.01. Adopting a spectroscopic mass determination for the white dwarf, we infer a low secondary mass of M_RD = 0.14+/-0.01 M_solar. For EUVE J2013+400 we determine a white dwarf velocity semi-amplitude of K_WD = 36.7+/-0.7 km/s. The FUSE observations of EUVE J0720-317 cover approximately 30% of the binary period and combined with the HST GHRS measurements (Vennes et al. 1999, ApJ 523, 386), we update the binary properties. FUSE observations of Feige 24 cover approximately 60% of the orbit and we combine this data set with HST STIS (Vennes et al. 2000, ApJ, 544, 423) data to update the binary properties.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap