Evaluating prediction systems in software project estimation

This is the Pre-print version of the Article - Copyright @ 2012 ElsevierContext: Software engineering has a problem in that when we empirically evaluate competing prediction systems we obtain conflicting results. Objective: To reduce the inconsistency amongst validation study results and provide a more formal foundation to interpret results with a particular focus on continuous prediction systems. Method: A new framework is proposed for evaluating competing prediction systems based upon (1) an unbiased statistic, Standardised Accuracy, (2) testing the result likelihood relative to the baseline technique of random ‘predictions’, that is guessing, and (3) calculation of effect sizes. Results: Previously published empirical evaluations of prediction systems are re-examined and the original conclusions shown to be unsafe. Additionally, even the strongest results are shown to have no more than a medium effect size relative to random guessing. Conclusions: Biased accuracy statistics such as MMRE are deprecated. By contrast this new empirical validation framework leads to meaningful results. Such steps will assist in performing future meta-analyses and in providing more robust and usable recommendations to practitioners.Martin Shepperd was supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under Grant EP/H050329

Integrate the GM(1,1) and Verhulst models to predict software stage effort

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2009 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.Software effort prediction clearly plays a crucial role in software project management. In keeping with more dynamic approaches to software development, it is not sufficient to only predict the whole-project effort at an early stage. Rather, the project manager must also dynamically predict the effort of different stages or activities during the software development process. This can assist the project manager to reestimate effort and adjust the project plan, thus avoiding effort or schedule overruns. This paper presents a method for software physical time stage-effort prediction based on grey models GM(1,1) and Verhulst. This method establishes models dynamically according to particular types of stage-effort sequences, and can adapt to particular development methodologies automatically by using a novel grey feedback mechanism. We evaluate the proposed method with a large-scale real-world software engineering dataset, and compare it with the linear regression method and the Kalman filter method, revealing that accuracy has been improved by at least 28% and 50%, respectively. The results indicate that the method can be effective and has considerable potential. We believe that stage predictions could be a useful complement to whole-project effort prediction methods.National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Hi-Tech Research and Development Program of Chin

Making inferences with small numbers of training sets

A potential methodological problem with empirical studies that assess project effort prediction system is discussed. Frequently, a hold-out strategy is deployed so that the data set is split into a training and a validation set. Inferences are then made concerning the relative accuracy of the different prediction techniques under examination. This is typically done on very small numbers of sampled training sets. It is shown that such studies can lead to almost random results (particularly where relatively small effects are being studied). To illustrate this problem, two data sets are analysed using a configuration problem for case-based prediction and results generated from 100 training sets. This enables results to be produced with quantified confidence limits. From this it is concluded that in both cases using less than five training sets leads to untrustworthy results, and ideally more than 20 sets should be deployed. Unfortunately, this raises a question over a number of empirical validations of prediction techniques, and so it is suggested that further research is needed as a matter of urgency

Never the twain shall meet: a critical appraisal of the combination of discourse and psychoanalytic theory in studies of men and masculinity

In recent years there has been a number of attempts by different researchers to study men and masculinity using a combination of discourse theory and psychoanalysis. The main reason for this development is the sense that, on its own, discourse theory provides an incomplete account of masculine subjectivity. Psychoanalysis is thought to be able to fill those gaps. In this paper I want to begin by reviewing these arguments. I will provide an outline of the alleged deficiencies in discursive approaches to men and masculinity before going on to examine some of the work that has attempted the above synthesis. What I aim to show is that, for a number of reasons, such attempts are bound to fail. Instead, I will argue that better progress can be made in studies of masculinity by remaining within the theoretical boundaries of Discursive Psychology

A metamorphic inorganic framework that can be switched between eight single-crystalline states

The design of highly flexible framework materials requires organic linkers, whereas inorganic materials are more robust but inflexible. Here, by using linkable inorganic rings made up of tungsten oxide (P8W48O184) building blocks, we synthesized an inorganic single crystal material that can undergo at least eight different crystal-to-crystal transformations, with gigantic crystal volume contraction and expansion changes ranging from −2,170 to +1,720 Å3 with no reduction in crystallinity. Not only does this material undergo the largest single crystal-to-single crystal volume transformation thus far reported (to the best of our knowledge), the system also shows conformational flexibility while maintaining robustness over several cycles in the reversible uptake and release of guest molecules switching the crystal between different metamorphic states. This material combines the robustness of inorganic materials with the flexibility of organic frameworks, thereby challenging the notion that flexible materials with robustness are mutually exclusive

Catching up with Method and Process Practice: An Industry-Informed Baseline for Researchers

Software development methods are usually not applied by the book.companies are under pressure to continuously deploy software products that meet market needs and stakeholders\u27 requests. To implement efficient and effective development processes, companies utilize multiple frameworks, methods and practices, and combine these into hybrid methods. A common combination contains a rich management framework to organize and steer projects complemented with a number of smaller practices providing the development teams with tools to complete their tasks. In this paper, based on 732 data points collected through an international survey, we study the software development process use in practice. Our results show that 76.8% of the companies implement hybrid methods.company size as well as the strategy in devising and evolving hybrid methods affect the suitability of the chosen process to reach company or project goals. Our findings show that companies that combine planned improvement programs with process evolution can increase their process\u27 suitability by up to 5%

“It will always continue unless we can change something”: consequences of intimate partner violence for indigenous women, children, and families

Background: Violence against indigenous women and girls is endemic, yet the absence of research on the consequences of this violence from the perspectives of women presents a profound barrier to the development of knowledge, along with violence prevention and mitigation. Although family is central to many indigenous communities, existing research typically examines the consequences of intimate partner violence (IPV) on women or children in isolation, rather than examining its consequences holistically. Objective: The purpose of this article is to identify US indigenous women's perspectives about the impact of IPV on women, children, and families. Method: Data were collected with 29 indigenous women affected by violence from a Southeastern tribe in the United States. As part of a larger critical ethnography, pragmatic horizon analysis of life history interviews revealed the consequences of IPV across multiple levels. Results: Women reported profound psychological consequences resulting from IPV. The majority of women had witnessed IPV in their childhood, providing support for an intergenerational cycle of violence. Women reported psychological consequences on children, which paralleled those reported by women, leaving deep impressions on children across their life course. Consequences on children and whole families were extensive, indicating the negative ramifications of IPV transcended personal boundaries and affected children and families across multiple generations. Conclusions: Given the tight-knit nature of indigenous families and communities, the consequences across individuals and families were noteworthy. However, a dearth in research examining consequences of IPV across levels fails to capture the interconnections of consequences for women, children, and families. Given the centrality of family in many indigenous communities, examining IPV from a holistic perspective that incorporates multiple levels is recommended for IPV research and intervention development

Results from the Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS) experiment at Soudan

We report the result of a blinded search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) using the majority of the SuperCDMS Soudan dataset. With an exposure of 1690 kg days, a single candidate event is observed, consistent with expected backgrounds. This analysis (combined with previous Ge results) sets an upper limit on the spin-independent WIMP--nucleon cross section of $1.4 \times 10^{-44}$ ($1.0 \times 10^{-44}$) cm$^2$ at 46 GeV/$c^2$. These results set the strongest limits for WIMP--germanium-nucleus interactions for masses $>$12 GeV/$c^2$