Foundations of Portfolio Theory

Prize Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, December 7, 1990.Portfolio Theory;

Appropriate Antibiotic Therapy for Urinary Tract Infections

It was stated years ago that physicians pour medicines about which they know little, for diseases about which they know less, into human beings about whom they know nothing. Although as a prophet this wag may have overstated the case as it concerns the therapy of urinary tract infections (UTI), the character of contemporary infectious diseases is, in part, due to the use and abuse of anti-infective agents. One has only to look at the rising incidence of gram-negative bacteremia and the emergence of multiple antibiotic-resistant organisms over the past several decades to appreciate the impact physicians have made with these agents. Despite the drawbacks, the benefits resulting from the use of antibiotics far outweigh the deleterious effects, a fact perhaps realized most vividly by physicians whose careers reach back to the pre-chemotherapeutic era. The enthusiasm for antibiotics makes them one of the most prescribed groups of drugs in the United States, accounting for 15% to 20% of all new and refill prescriptions. Undoubtedly many of the prescriptions are used to treat persons with UTIs, in light of the fact that UTIs are said to rank second only to upper respiratory infections as the most common infections in the western hemisphere

Gravitational Wave Burst Source Direction Estimation using Time and Amplitude Information

In this article we study two problems that arise when using timing and amplitude estimates from a network of interferometers (IFOs) to evaluate the direction of an incident gravitational wave burst (GWB). First, we discuss an angular bias in the least squares timing-based approach that becomes increasingly relevant for moderate to low signal-to-noise ratios. We show how estimates of the arrival time uncertainties in each detector can be used to correct this bias. We also introduce a stand alone parameter estimation algorithm that can improve the arrival time estimation and provide root-sum-squared strain amplitude (hrss) values for each site. In the second part of the paper we discuss how to resolve the directional ambiguity that arises from observations in three non co-located interferometers between the true source location and its mirror image across the plane containing the detectors. We introduce a new, exact relationship among the hrss values at the three sites that, for sufficiently large signal amplitudes, determines the true source direction regardless of whether or not the signal is linearly polarized. Both the algorithm estimating arrival times, arrival time uncertainties, and hrss values and the directional follow-up can be applied to any set of gravitational wave candidates observed in a network of three non co-located interferometers. As a case study we test the methods on simulated waveforms embedded in simulations of the noise of the LIGO and Virgo detectors at design sensitivity.Comment: 10 pages, 14 figures, submitted to PR

Complex X-ray spectral variability in Mkn 421 observed with XMM-Newton

The bright blazar Mkn 421 has been observed four times for uninterrupted durations of ~ 9 - 13 hr during the performance verification and calibration phases of the XMM-Newton mission. The source was strongly variable in all epochs, with variability amplitudes that generally increased to higher energy bands. Although the detailed relationship between soft (0.1 - 0.75 keV) and hard (2 - 10 keV) band differed from one epoch to the next, in no case was there any evidence for a measurable interband lag, with robust upper limits of $| \tau | < 0.08$ hr in the best-correlated light curves. This is in conflict with previous claims of both hard and soft lags of ~1 hr in this and other blazars. However, previous observations suffered a repeated 1.6 hr feature induced by the low-Earth orbital period, a feature that is not present in the uninterrupted XMM-Newton data. The new upper limit on $|\tau|$ leads to a lower limit on the magnetic field strength and Doppler factor of B \delta^{1/3} \gs 4.7 G, mildly out of line with the predictions from a variety of homogeneous synchrotron self-Compton emission models in the literature of $B \delta^{1/3} = 0.2 - 0.8$ G. Time-dependent spectral fitting was performed on all epochs, and no detectable spectral hysteresis was seen. We note however that the source exhibited significantly different spectral evolutionary behavior from one epoch to the next, with the strongest correlations in the first and last and an actual divergance between soft and hard X-ray bands in the third. This indicates that the range of spectral variability behavior in Mkn 421 is not fully described in these short snippets; significantly longer uninterrupted light curves are required, and can be obtained with XMM-Newton.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, accepted for ApJ, scheduled for August 1, 200

Optimal Investment in the Development of Oil and Gas Field

Let an oil and gas field consists of clusters in each of which an investor can launch at most one project. During the implementation of a particular project, all characteristics are known, including annual production volumes, necessary investment volumes, and profit. The total amount of investments that the investor spends on developing the field during the entire planning period we know. It is required to determine which projects to implement in each cluster so that, within the total amount of investments, the profit for the entire planning period is maximum. The problem under consideration is NP-hard. However, it is solved by dynamic programming with pseudopolynomial time complexity. Nevertheless, in practice, there are additional constraints that do not allow solving the problem with acceptable accuracy at a reasonable time. Such restrictions, in particular, are annual production volumes. In this paper, we considered only the upper constraints that are dictated by the pipeline capacity. For the investment optimization problem with such additional restrictions, we obtain qualitative results, propose an approximate algorithm, and investigate its properties. Based on the results of a numerical experiment, we conclude that the developed algorithm builds a solution close (in terms of the objective function) to the optimal one

The Complex X-ray Spectrum of the Sefyert 1.5 Source NGC 6860

The X-ray spectrum of the Seyfert 1.5 source NGC 6860 is among the most complex of the sources detected in the Swift Burst Alert Telescope all-sky survey. A short XMM-Newton follow-up observation of the source revealed a flat spectrum both above and below 2 keV. To uncover the complexity of the source, in this paper we analyze both a 40 ks Suzaku and a 100 ks XMM-Newton observation of NGC 6860. While the spectral state of the source changed between the newer observations presented here and the earlier short XMM-Newton spectrum - showing a higher flux and steeper power law component - the spectrum of NGC 6860 is still complex with clearly detected warm absorption signatures. We find that a two component warm ionized absorber is present in the soft spectrum, with column densities of about 10^20 and 10^21 cm$^-2, ionization parameters of xi = 180 and 45 ergs cm s^-1, and outflow velocities for each component in the range of 0-300 km s^-1. Additionally, in the hard spectrum we find a broad (approx 11000 km s^-1) Fe K-alpha emission line, redshifted by approx 2800 km s^-1.Comment: 35 pages, 9 figures, Accepted to Ap

Collective behavior of stock price movements in an emerging market

To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This is shown to be due to the dominant influence of a common market mode on the stock prices. By comparison, interactions between related stocks, e.g., those belonging to the same business sector, are much weaker. This lack of distinct sector identity in emerging markets is explicitly shown by reconstructing the network of mutually interacting stocks. Spectral analysis of C for NSE reveals that, the few largest eigenvalues deviate from the bulk of the spectrum predicted by random matrix theory, but they are far fewer in number compared to, e.g., NYSE. We show this to be due to the relative weakness of intra-sector interactions between stocks, compared to the market mode, by modeling stock price dynamics with a two-factor model. Our results suggest that the emergence of an internal structure comprising multiple groups of strongly coupled components is a signature of market development.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figure

A Suzaku, NuSTAR, and XMM-Newton view on variable absorption and relativistic reflection in NGC 4151

We disentangle X-ray disk reflection from complex line-of-sight absorption in the nearby Seyfert NGC 4151, using a suite of Suzaku, NuSTAR, and XMM-Newton observations. Extending upon earlier published work, we pursue a physically motivated model using the latest angle-resolved version of the lamp-post geometry reflection model relxillCp_lp together with a Comptonization continuum. We use the long-look simultaneous Suzaku/NuSTAR observation to develop a baseline model wherein we model reflected emission as a combination of lamp-post components at the heights of 1.2 and 15.0 gravitational radii. We argue for a vertically extended corona as opposed to two compact and distinct primary sources. We find two neutral absorbers (one full-covering and one partial-covering), an ionized absorber ($\log \xi = 2.8$), and a highly-ionized ultra-fast outflow, which have all been reported previously. All analyzed spectra are well described by this baseline model. The bulk of the spectral variability between 1 keV and 6 keV can be accounted for by changes in the column density of both neutral absorbers, which appear to be degenerate and inversely correlated with the variable hard continuum component flux. We track variability in absorption on both short (2 d) and long ($\sim$1 yr) timescales; the observed evolution is either consistent with changes in the absorber structure (clumpy absorber at distances ranging from the broad line region (BLR) to the inner torus or a dusty radiatively driven wind) or a geometrically stable neutral absorber that becomes increasingly ionized at a rising flux level. The soft X-rays below 1 keV are dominated by photoionized emission from extended gas that may act as a warm mirror for the nuclear radiation.Comment: 21 pages, 19 figures, 8 tables, accepted for publication by A&