Coordination in games with incomplete information: experimental results

We use experiments to study coordination in games with incomplete information and ask whether an informed player can use cheap talk strategically. Two players decide whether to enter a market where stage game payoffs either form a prisoner’s dilemma or a stag-hunt. One player knows which stage game is played while the other knows only the associated probabilities. When players engage in a prisoner’s dilemma each player prefers unilateral entry. When payoffs form a stag-hunt game, the outcome where neither enters Pareto dominates the outcome where both enter. We ask whether cheap talk aids coordination on the Pareto dominant outcome and whether the informed player can use cheap talk to engineer her preferred outcome. Consistent with previous literature, the benefit of cheap talk depends on the relationship between payoffs and risks. We find that cheap talk benefits informed players only when payoff risks are low. Key Words: cheap talk, coordination, experiments, incomplete information, risk dominance, payoff domiance

Should we reconsider competition in residential electricity supply? Survey results in North Carolina

Retail competition has been introduced in many states as part of electricity industry deregulation. Following problems in the electricity market in California in 2000/01 many states, including NC, put deregulation plans on hold. Where retail competition is allowed consumers can choose their electricity supplier, and companies can compete for customers on the basis of rates and/or other options such as green energy choices. The welfare benefits of retail competition depend on consumers’ willingness to switch suppliers, and in many cases people choose to stay with their current supplier even though rivals offer savings. In that sense consumers are ‘sticky’ in the same way they are with other services such as banking and credit. The question then becomes: should states reconsider retail competition or stay with the status quo? To help answer this question we survey residents in two North Carolina counties. Our survey focuses on: (i) households’ knowledge of and interest in retail competition (ii) factors that would encourage them to switch suppliers, with an emphasis on smart meters and (iii) how large the potential savings would have to be to encourage switching. Key Words: electricity supply, retail competition, switching

Community-Based Forestry and Timber Certification in Southeast Bolivia

Initiatives promoting community forestry in South America have significantly increased over the past decade. Many of these efforts have concentrated on indigenous lands where a large proportion of commercially valuable forests are located. One such project, among the Chiquitano Indians of Lomerio in southeast Bolivia, is examined here. Interviews with Chiquitano leaders, NGO and development organisation workers, and forest and sawmill workers, as well as ethnographic research in Chiquitano communities, are used to describe problems faced by the project in establishing forest management activities, organizing labour, administration, paying wages and distributing benefits. The author argues that many of the problems that the Lomerio project is experiencing can be traced to fundamental conflicts between Chiquitano culture and the values that necessarily accompany market-based development efforts such as community forestry. The research suggests that the key to success in Lomerio will lie in moulding the organisation of the project in ways that reflect Chiquitano patterns of work and production, and reconciling the demands of market economics with the values of reciprocation that permeate life in Chiquitano communities

An AI approach for scheduling space-station payloads at Kennedy Space Center

The Payload Processing for Space-Station Operations (PHITS) is a prototype modeling tool capable of addressing many Space Station related concerns. The system's object oriented design approach coupled with a powerful user interface provide the user with capabilities to easily define and model many applications. PHITS differs from many artificial intelligence based systems in that it couples scheduling and goal-directed simulation to ensure that on-orbit requirement dates are satisfied

Coating for prevention of titanium combustion

A limited number of coating options for titanium gas turbine engine components were explored with the objective of minimizing potential combustion initiation and propagation without adversely affecting component mechanical properties. Objectives were met by two of the coatings, ion-plated platinum plus electroplated copper plus electroplated nickel and ion vapor deposited aluminum

Analyzing P300 Distractors for Target Reconstruction

P300-based brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) are often trained per-user and per-application space. Training such models requires ground truth knowledge of target and non-target stimulus categories during model training, which imparts bias into the model. Additionally, not all non-targets are created equal; some may contain visual features that resemble targets or may otherwise be visually salient. Current research has indicated that non-target distractors may elicit attenuated P300 responses based on the perceptual similarity of these distractors to the target category. To minimize this bias, and enable a more nuanced analysis, we use a generalized BCI approach that is fit to neither user nor task. We do not seek to improve the overall accuracy of the BCI with our generalized approach; we instead demonstrate the utility of our approach for identifying target-related image features. When combined with other intelligent agents, such as computer vision systems, the performance of the generalized model equals that of the user-specific models, without any user specific data.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Utilization survey of prototype structural test article

A survey was conducted of six aerospace companies and two NASA agencies to determine how prototype structural test articles are used in flight operations. The prototype structures are airframes and similar devices which are used for testing and generally are not flown. The survey indicated the following: (1) prototype test articles are not being discarded after development testing is complete, but are used for other purposes, (2) only two cases of prototypes being refurbished and flown were identified, (3) protective devices and inspection techniques are available to prevent or minimize test article damage, (4) substitute programs from design verification are availabel in lieu of using prototype structural articles, and (5) there is a trend away from dedicated test articles. Four options based on these study results were identified to reduce test and hardware costs without compromising reliability of the flight program

Spin-exchange relaxation free magnetometry with Cs vapor

We describe a Cs atomic magnetometer operating in the spin-exchange relaxation-free (SERF) regime. With a vapor cell temperature of $103^\circ\rm{C}$ we achieve intrinsic magnetic resonance widths $\Delta B=17 {\rm \mu G}$ corresponding to an electron spin-relaxation rate of $300 {\rm s^{-1}}$ when the spin-exchange rate is $\Gamma_{SE}=14000 {\rm s^{-1}}$. We also observe an interesting narrowing effect due to diffusion. Signal-to-noise measurements yield a sensitivity of about $400\thinspace{\rm pG/\sqrt{Hz}}$. Based on photon shot noise, we project a sensitivity of $40 {\rm pG/\sqrt{Hz}}$. A theoretical optimization of the magnetometer indicates sensitivities on the order of $2 {\rm pG/\sqrt{Hz}}$ should be achievable in a $1 {\rm cm^3}$ volume. Because Cs has a higher saturated vapor pressure than other alkali metals, SERF magnetometers using Cs atoms are particularly attractive in applications requiring lower temperatures.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures. submitted to PR