Is there evidence for additional neutrino species from cosmology?

It has been suggested that recent cosmological and flavor-oscillation data favor the existence of additional neutrino species beyond the three predicted by the Standard Model of particle physics. We apply Bayesian model selection to determine whether there is indeed any evidence from current cosmological datasets for the standard cosmological model to be extended to include additional neutrino flavors. The datasets employed include cosmic microwave background temperature, polarization and lensing power spectra, and measurements of the baryon acoustic oscillation scale and the Hubble constant. We also consider other extensions to the standard neutrino model, such as massive neutrinos, and possible degeneracies with other cosmological parameters. The Bayesian evidence indicates that current cosmological data do not require any non-standard neutrino properties.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. v3: replaced with version published in JCAP (typo fixes, including Figure 1 units

Avoiding bias in reconstructing the largest observable scales from partial-sky data

Obscuration due to Galactic emission complicates the extraction of information from cosmological surveys, and requires some combination of the (typically imperfect) modeling and subtraction of foregrounds, or the removal of part of the sky. This particularly affects the extraction of information from the largest observable scales. Maximum-likelihood estimators for reconstructing the full-sky spherical harmonic coefficients from partial-sky maps have recently been shown to be susceptible to contamination from within the sky cut, arising due to the necessity to band-limit the data by smoothing prior to reconstruction. Using the WMAP 7-year data, we investigate modified implementations of such estimators which are robust to the leakage of contaminants from within masked regions. We provide a measure, based on the expected amplitude of residual foregrounds, for selecting the most appropriate estimator for the task at hand. We explain why the related quadratic maximum-likelihood estimator of the angular power spectrum does not suffer from smoothing-induced bias.Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures. v2: replaced with version accepted by PRD (minor amendments to text only

Robust forecasts on fundamental physics from the foreground-obscured, gravitationally-lensed CMB polarization

[Abridged] Recent results from the BICEP, Keck Array and Planck Collaborations demonstrate that Galactic foregrounds are an unavoidable obstacle in the search for evidence of inflationary gravitational waves in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization. Beyond the foregrounds, the effect of lensing by intervening large-scale structure further obscures all but the strongest inflationary signals permitted by current data. With a plethora of ongoing and upcoming experiments aiming to measure these signatures, careful and self-consistent consideration of experiments' foreground- and lensing-removal capabilities is critical in obtaining credible forecasts of their performance. We investigate the capabilities of instruments such as Advanced ACTPol, BICEP3 and Keck Array, CLASS, EBEX10K, PIPER, Simons Array, SPT-3G and SPIDER, and projects as COrE+, LiteBIRD-ext, PIXIE and Stage IV, to clean contamination due to polarized synchrotron and dust from raw multi-frequency data, and remove lensing from the resulting co-added CMB maps (either using iterative CMB-only techniques or through cross-correlation with external data). Incorporating these effects, we present forecasts for the constraining power of these experiments in terms of inflationary physics, the neutrino sector, and dark energy parameters. Made publicly available through an online interface, this tool enables the next generation of CMB experiments to foreground-proof their designs, optimize their frequency coverage to maximize scientific output, and determine where cross-experimental collaboration would be most beneficial. We find that analyzing data from ground, balloon and space instruments in complementary combinations can significantly improve component separation performance, delensing, and cosmological constraints over individual datasets.Comment: 37 pages plus appendices, 15 figures; first two authors contributed equally to this work; forecasting tool available at http://turkey.lbl.gov. v4: matches version published in JCAP (with extended dark energy constraints

First Observational Tests of Eternal Inflation

The eternal inflation scenario predicts that our observable Universe resides inside a single bubble embedded in a vast inflating multiverse. We present the first observational tests of eternal inflation, performing a search for cosmological signatures of collisions with other bubble universes in cosmic microwave background data from the WMAP satellite. We conclude that the WMAP 7-year data do not warrant augmenting the cold dark matter model with a cosmological constant with bubble collisions, constraining the average number of detectable bubble collisions on the full sky N̅ _s<1.6 at 68% C.L. Data from the Planck satellite can be used to more definitively test the bubble-collision hypothesis

How isotropic is the Universe?

A fundamental assumption in the standard model of cosmology is that the Universe is isotropic on large scales. Breaking this assumption leads to a set of solutions to Einstein's field equations, known as Bianchi cosmologies, only a subset of which have ever been tested against data. For the first time, we consider all degrees of freedom in these solutions to conduct a general test of isotropy using cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization data from Planck. For the vector mode (associated with vorticity), we obtain a limit on the anisotropic expansion of $(\sigma_V/H)_0 < 4.7 \times 10^{-11}$ (95% CI), which is an order of magnitude tighter than previous Planck results that used CMB temperature only. We also place upper limits on other modes of anisotropic expansion, with the weakest limit arising from the regular tensor mode, $(\sigma_{T,\rm reg}/H)_0<1.0 \times 10^{-6}$ (95% CI). Including all degrees of freedom simultaneously for the first time, anisotropic expansion of the Universe is strongly disfavoured, with odds of 121,000:1 against.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, v2: replaced with version accepted by PR

A framework for testing isotropy with the cosmic microwave background

We present a new framework for testing the isotropy of the Universe using cosmic microwave background data, building on the nested-sampling ANICOSMO code. Uniquely, we are able to constrain the scalar, vector and tensor degrees of freedom alike; previous studies only considered the vector mode (linked to vorticity). We employ Bianchi type VII$_h$ cosmologies to model the anisotropic Universe, from which other types may be obtained by taking suitable limits. In a separate development, we improve the statistical analysis by including the effect of Bianchi power in the high-$\ell$, as well as the low-$\ell$, likelihood. To understand the effect of all these changes, we apply our new techniques to WMAP data. We find no evidence for anisotropy, constraining shear in the vector mode to $(\sigma_V/H)_0 < 1.7 \times 10^{-10}$ (95% CL). For the first time, we place limits on the tensor mode; unlike other modes, the tensor shear can grow from a near-isotropic early Universe. The limit on this type of shear is $(\sigma_{T,\rm reg}/H)_0 < 2.4 \times 10^{-7}$ (95% CL).Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, v3: minor modifications to match version accepted by MNRA

Optimal filters for detecting cosmic bubble collisions

A number of well-motivated extensions of the LCDM concordance cosmological model postulate the existence of a population of sources embedded in the cosmic microwave background (CMB). One such example is the signature of cosmic bubble collisions which arise in models of eternal inflation. The most unambiguous way to test these scenarios is to evaluate the full posterior probability distribution of the global parameters defining the theory; however, a direct evaluation is computationally impractical on large datasets, such as those obtained by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and Planck. A method to approximate the full posterior has been developed recently, which requires as an input a set of candidate sources which are most likely to give the largest contribution to the likelihood. In this article, we present an improved algorithm for detecting candidate sources using optimal filters, and apply it to detect candidate bubble collision signatures in WMAP 7-year observations. We show both theoretically and through simulations that this algorithm provides an enhancement in sensitivity over previous methods by a factor of approximately two. Moreover, no other filter-based approach can provide a superior enhancement of these signatures. Applying our algorithm to WMAP 7-year observations, we detect eight new candidate bubble collision signatures for follow-up analysis.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, replaced to match version accepted by PR

Bayesian Analysis of Inflation II: Model Selection and Constraints on Reheating

We discuss the model selection problem for inflationary cosmology. We couple ModeCode, a publicly-available numerical solver for the primordial perturbation spectra, to the nested sampler MultiNest, in order to efficiently compute Bayesian evidence. Particular attention is paid to the specification of physically realistic priors, including the parametrization of the post-inflationary expansion and associated thermalization scale. It is confirmed that while present-day data tightly constrains the properties of the power spectrum, it cannot usefully distinguish between the members of a large class of simple inflationary models. We also compute evidence using a simulated Planck likelihood, showing that while Planck will have more power than WMAP to discriminate between inflationary models, it will not definitively address the inflationary model selection problem on its own. However, Planck will place very tight constraints on any model with more than one observationally-distinct inflationary regime -- e.g. the large- and small-field limits of the hilltop inflation model -- and put useful limits on different reheating scenarios for a given model.Comment: ModeCode package available from http://zuserver2.star.ucl.ac.uk/~hiranya/ModeCode/ModeCode (requires CosmoMC and MultiNest); to be published in PRD. Typos fixe

A Slowly Precessing Disk in the Nucleus of M31 as the Feeding Mechanism for a Central Starburst

We present a kinematic study of the nuclear stellar disk in M31 at infrared wavelengths using high spatial resolution integral field spectroscopy. The spatial resolution achieved, FWHM = 0."12 (0.45 pc at the distance of M31), has only previously been equaled in spectroscopic studies by space-based long-slit observations. Using adaptive optics-corrected integral field spectroscopy from the OSIRIS instrument at the W. M. Keck Observatory, we map the line-of-sight kinematics over the entire old stellar eccentric disk orbiting the supermassive black hole (SMBH) at a distance of r<4 pc. The peak velocity dispersion is 381+/-55 km/s , offset by 0.13 +/- 0.03 from the SMBH, consistent with previous high-resolution long-slit observations. There is a lack of near-infrared (NIR) emission at the position of the SMBH and young nuclear cluster, suggesting a spatial separation between the young and old stellar populations within the nucleus. We compare the observed kinematics with dynamical models from Peiris & Tremaine (2003). The best-fit disk orientation to the NIR flux is [$\theta_l$, $\theta_i$, $\theta_a$] = [-33 +/- 4$^{\circ}$, 44 +/- 2$^{\circ}$, -15 +/- 15$^{\circ}$], which is tilted with respect to both the larger-scale galactic disk and the best-fit orientation derived from optical observations. The precession rate of the old disk is $\Omega_P$ = 0.0 +/- 3.9 km/s/pc, lower than the majority of previous observations. This slow precession rate suggests that stellar winds from the disk will collide and shock, driving rapid gas inflows and fueling an episodic central starburst as suggested in Chang et al. (2007).Comment: accepted by Ap