What Were They Thinking? The Federal Reserve In The Run-Up To The 2008 Financial Crisis

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is responsible for monitoring, analyzing and ultimately stabilizing US financial markets. It also has unrivalled access to economic data, high-level connections to financial institutions, and a large staff of professionally trained economists. Why then was it apparently unconcerned by the financial developments that are now widely recognized to have caused the 2008 financial crisis? Using a wide range of Fed documents from the pre-crisis period, particularly the transcripts of meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), this paper shows that Fed policymakers and staff were aware of relevant developments in financial markets, but paid infrequent attention to them and disregarded significant systemic threats. Drawing on literatures in economics, political science and sociology, the paper then demonstrates that the Fed\u27s intellectual paradigm in the years before the crisis focused on ‘post hoc interventionism’ – the institution\u27s ability to limit the fallout should a systemic disturbance arise. Further, the paper argues that institutional routines played a crucial role in maintaining this paradigm and in contributing to the Fed\u27s inadequate attention to the warning signals in the pre-crisis period

Phase Transitions in a Dusty Plasma with Two Distinct Particle Sizes

In semiconductor manufacturing, contamination due to particulates significantly decreases the yield and quality of device fabrication, therefore increasing the cost of production. Dust particle clouds can be found in almost all plasma processing environments including both plasma etching devices and in plasma deposition processes. Dust particles suspended within such plasmas will acquire an electric charge from collisions with free electrons in the plasma. If the ratio of inter-particle potential energy to the average kinetic energy is sufficient, the particles will form either a liquid structure with short range ordering or a crystalline structure with long range ordering. Otherwise, the dust particle system will remain in a gaseous state. Many experiments have been conducted over the past decade on such colloidal plasmas to discover the character of the systems formed, but more work is needed to fully understand these structures. The preponderance of previous experiments used monodisperse spheres to form complex plasma systems

Dusty Plasma Correlation Function Experiment

Dust particles immersed within a plasma environment, such as those in protostellar clouds, planetary rings or cometary environments, will acquire an electric charge. If the ratio of the inter-particle potential energy to the average kinetic energy is high enough the particles will form either a "liquid" structure with short-range ordering or a crystalline structure with long range ordering. Many experiments have been conducted over the past several years on such colloidal plasmas to discover the nature of the crystals formed, but more work is needed to fully understand these complex colloidal systems. Most previous experiments have employed monodisperse spheres to form Coulomb crystals. However, in nature (as well as in most plasma processing environments) the distribution of particle sizes is more randomized and disperse. This paper reports experiments which were carried out in a GEC rf reference cell modified for use as a dusty plasma system, using varying sizes of particles to determine the manner in which the correlation function depends upon the overall dust grain size distribution. (The correlation function determines the overall crystalline structure of the lattice.) Two dimensional plasma crystals were formed of assorted glass spheres with specific size distributions in an argon plasma. Using various optical techniques, the pair correlation function was determined and compared to those calculated numerically.Comment: 6 pages, Presented at COSPAR '0

Nitrous oxide emission sources from a mixed livestock farm

The primary aim of this study was to identify and compare the most significant sources of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soils within a typical mixed livestock farm in Scotland. The farm area can be considered as representative of agricultural soils in this region where outdoor grazing forms an important part of the animal husbandry. A high temporal resolution dynamic chamber method was used to measure N2O fluxes from the featureless, general areas of the arable and pasture fields (general) and from those areas where large nitrogen additions are highly likely, such as animal feeding areas, manure heaps, animal barns (features). Individual N2O flux measurements varied by four orders of magnitude, with values ranging from −5.5 to 80,000 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1. The log-normal distribution of the fluxes required the use of more complex statistics to quantify uncertainty, including a Bayesian approach which provided a robust and transparent method for “upscaling” i.e. translating small-scale observations to larger scales, with appropriate propagation of uncertainty. Mean N2O fluxes associated with the features were typically one to four orders of magnitude larger than those measured on the general areas of the arable and pasture fields. During warmer months, when widespread grazing takes place across the farm, the smaller N2O fluxes of the largest area source – the general field (99.7% of total area) – dominated the overall N2O emissions. The contribution from the features should still be considered important, given that up to 91% of the fluxes may come from only 0.3% of the area under certain conditions, especially in the colder winter months when manure heaps and animal barns continue to produce emissions while soils reach temperatures unfavourable for microbial activity (<5 °C)

Experimentation and modelling of near field explosions

Repeatable experimental results and numerical work has shown that using the Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state (EOS) will give very accurate results of peak pressures and impulse delivered to a rigid target at large scaled distances. However, recent experiments/numerical modelling at small scaled distances show that the JWL will overpredict peak pressures and impulse due to the assumption of (near) instantaneous energy release from detonation. The results of this experimental/numerical study are presented herein. In the experimental work PE4 spheres at two different scaled distances have been tested using an array of Hopkinson Pressure Bars (HPB) at specific points on a rigid target to measure the local pressure-time histories. From the HPB measurements, it appears that below certain scaled distances there are chemical-physical mechanisms that do not have sufficient time to contribute to the energy driving the loading mechanisms, explaining the over-prediction of the JWL. Importantly though, the experimental results show that at very small scaled distances (0.172 m/kg1/3) the test to test percentage variation is very low (5.1%); whilst at larger scaled distances (0.819 m/kg1/3) it is much higher (23.1%). This paper presents a model which describes the process by which experimental results move from repeatable to variable to repeatable as scaled distance increases from the extreme near field to far field

Detecting the (Quasi-)Two-Body Decays of τ\tau Leptons in Short-Baseline Neutrino Oscillation Experiments

Novel detector schemes are proposed for the short-baseline neutrino experiments of next generation, aimed at exploring the large-$\Delta m^2$ domain of \omutau oscillations in the appearance mode. These schemes emphasize good spectrometry for charged particles and for electromagnetic showers and efficient reconstruction of \ypi_gg decays. The basic elements are a sequence of relatively thin emulsion targets, immersed in magnetic field and interspersed with electronic trackers, and a fine-grained electromagnetic calorimeter built of lead glass. These elements act as an integral whole in reconstructing the electromagnetic showers. This conceptual scheme shows good performance in identifying the $\tau$ (quasi-)two-body decays by their characteristic kinematics and in selecting the electronic decays of the $\tau$.Comment: 34 pages, 8 figure

Higher education, mature students and employment goals: policies and practices in the UK

This article considers recent policies of Higher Education in the UK, which are aimed at widening participation and meeting the needs of employers. The focus is on the growing population of part-time students, and the implications of policies for this group. The article takes a critical perspective on government policies, using data from a major study of mature part-time students, conducted in two specialist institutions in the UK, a London University college and a distance learning university. Findings from this study throw doubt on the feasibility of determining a priori what kind of study pathway is most conducive for the individual in terms of employment gains and opportunities for upward social mobility. In conclusion, doubts are raised as to whether policies such as those of the present UK government are likely to achieve its aims. Such policies are not unique to the UK, and lessons from this country are relevant to most of the developed world

Influence of particle size distribution on the blast pressure profile from explosives buried in saturated soils

The spatial and temporal distribution of pressure and impulse from explosives buried in saturated cohesive and cohesionless soils has been measured experimentally for the first time. Ten experiments have been conducted at quarter-scale, where localised pressure loading was measured using an array of 17 Hopkinson pressure bars. The blast pressure measurements are used in conjunction with high-speed video filmed at 100,000 fps to investigate in detail the physical processes occurring at the loaded face. Two coarse cohesionless soils and one fine cohesive soil were tested: a relatively uniform sand, a well-graded sandy-gravel, and a fine-grained clay. The results show that there is a single fundamental loading mechanism when explosives are detonated in saturated soil, invariant of particle size and soil cohesion. It is also shown that variability in localised loading is intrinsically linked to the particle size distribution of the surrounding soil