Simulation and extended range prediction of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework

The present study investigates the role of ocean-atmosphere coupling in improving the simulation and extended range prediction skill of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) using the NCEP CFS (version 2) vis-Ã -vis its atmospheric component GFS (version 2) forced with bias-corrected sea-surface temperature (SST) derived from CFS. Though the CFS free-run analysis shows dry bias over Indian land as compared to GFS, the interactive air-sea coupling in CFS has considerably improved the simulation of large-scale dynamical fields, SST-rainfall relationship, and the northward propagation of the MISOs with respect to GFS. However, the improvement of MISO simulation in CFS over GFS has not necessarily guaranteed the improvement of real-time extended range prediction during 2011 and 2012. CFS shows better skill over GFS (forced with bias-corrected CFS derived SST) at pentad lead 4. The phases of MISOs are better predicted in GFS and the amplitude prediction skill is marginally improved in CFS. The present study also advocates the need of probabilistic category (active, normal or break) forecast at extended range

Assessing Genetic Diversity Between Bighorn Sheep Populations in Western Montana

This study investigates two remote bighorn sheep populations in the southern Bitterroot Valley affected by a pneumonia outbreak in 2010. Limited information is available regarding the genetic relatedness among bighorn sheep populations and how pneumonia related die offs could impact genetic diversity and herd resilience to future outbreaks. To contribute to local research efforts we developed scat collection and DNA extraction protocol for advanced high school students in a community science program. This study gathers baseline information about the genetic relatedness between two relatively close but isolated populations, and will estimate the heterozygosity and the number of distinct alleles at several microsatellite loci. DNA from bighorn sheep scat was collected, extracted, and genotyped from samples in June of 2011 (n = 19) and 2012 (n = 25). The small sample size will reduce our ability to make broad conclusions; the number of samples represents about 20 percent of the estimated herd size in 2011 and 2012. Although our ability to make conclusions may be limited, this data could contribute to bighorn sheep management strategies for the Bitterroot and long term genetic monitoring for a sustainable population. Additional samples will be collected and analyzed yearly to look for changes in heterozygosity over time and in response to any future translocations

ENCOUNTERING AND COUNTERING WORK STRESS: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF THE OCCUPATIONAL STRESS AND COPING MECHANISMS OF FAST FOOD RESTAURANT PERSONNEL IN THE PHILIPPINES

Food is always viewed as an indispensable household necessity. Based on the 2009 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), 42.6% of the total expenditure of a typical Filipino household is solely being allocated for food (Limtingco, 2012). As the growing demand for food continues to escalate, fast food providers had proliferated both in the metro and rural provinces to help augment the need. In effect, the demand for human workforce for these companies had also escalated. However, at present, no available literature had yet explicated on the current psychological condition of the working personnel of these companies. Thus, this research is an exploratory attempt meant to delve on the various typologies and severity of stressors currently experienced by the food service personnel in the Philippines. Furthermore, this study statistically accounted for the coping mechanisms used by the fast food service personnel in treating their work related problems

Reconstruction of Partial Hypopharyngeal Defects following Total Laryngectomy:A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Various operative techniques exist to reconstruct partial hypopharyngeal defects following total laryngectomy. The current study aimed to investigate and compare complications and functional results following commonly used reconstructive techniques. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed using studies that investigated outcomes after the reconstruction of a partial hypopharyngeal defect. The outcomes of interest were fistulas, strictures, flap failure, swallowing function and postoperative speech. Results: Of the 4035 studies identified, 23 were included in this review. Four common reconstructive techniques were reported, with a total of 794 patients: (1) pectoralis major myocutaneous and (2) myofascial flap, (3) anterolateral thigh free flap and (4) radial forearm free flap. Fistulas occurred significantly more often than pectoralis major myocutaneous flaps (34%, 95% CI 23–47%) compared with other flaps (p &lt; 0.001). No significant differences in the rates of strictures or flap failure were observed. Pectoralis major myofascial flaps were non-inferior to free-flap reconstructions. Insufficient data were available to assess speech results between flap types. Conclusion: Pectoralis myocutaneous flaps should not be the preferred method of reconstruction for most patients, considering their significantly higher rate of fistulas. In contrast, pectoralis major myofascial flaps yield promising results compared to free-flap reconstructions, warranting further investigation.</p

Reconstruction of Partial Hypopharyngeal Defects following Total Laryngectomy:A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Various operative techniques exist to reconstruct partial hypopharyngeal defects following total laryngectomy. The current study aimed to investigate and compare complications and functional results following commonly used reconstructive techniques. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed using studies that investigated outcomes after the reconstruction of a partial hypopharyngeal defect. The outcomes of interest were fistulas, strictures, flap failure, swallowing function and postoperative speech. Results: Of the 4035 studies identified, 23 were included in this review. Four common reconstructive techniques were reported, with a total of 794 patients: (1) pectoralis major myocutaneous and (2) myofascial flap, (3) anterolateral thigh free flap and (4) radial forearm free flap. Fistulas occurred significantly more often than pectoralis major myocutaneous flaps (34%, 95% CI 23–47%) compared with other flaps (p &lt; 0.001). No significant differences in the rates of strictures or flap failure were observed. Pectoralis major myofascial flaps were non-inferior to free-flap reconstructions. Insufficient data were available to assess speech results between flap types. Conclusion: Pectoralis myocutaneous flaps should not be the preferred method of reconstruction for most patients, considering their significantly higher rate of fistulas. In contrast, pectoralis major myofascial flaps yield promising results compared to free-flap reconstructions, warranting further investigation.</p

Monsoons climate change assessment

Monsoon rainfall has profound economic and societal impacts for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here we provide a review on past monsoon changes and their primary drivers, the projected future changes, and key physical processes, and discuss challenges of the present and future modeling and outlooks. Continued global warming and urbanization over the past century has already caused a significant rise in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in all monsoon regions (high confidence). Observed changes in the mean monsoon rainfall vary by region with significant decadal variations. Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall as a whole declined from 1950 to 1980 and rebounded after the 1980s, due to the competing influences of internal climate variability and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing (high confidence); however, it remains a challenge to quantify their relative contributions. The CMIP6 models simulate better global monsoon intensity and precipitation over CMIP5 models, but common biases and large intermodal spreads persist. Nevertheless, there is high confidence that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extreme rainfall events will increase, alongside an increasing risk of drought over some regions. Also, land monsoon rainfall will increase in South Asia and East Asia (high confidence) and northern Africa (medium confidence), decrease in North America, and be unchanged in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the rainfall variability is projected to increase on daily to decadal scales. The rainy season will likely be lengthened in the Northern Hemisphere due to late retreat (especially over East Asia), but shortened in the Southern Hemisphere due to delayed onset