Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics and adaptation

Studies of climate change impacts on agricultural land use generally consider sets of climates combined with fixed socio-economic scenarios, making it impossible to compare the impact of specific factors within these scenario sets. Analysis of the impact of specific scenario factors is extremely difficult due to prohibitively long run-times of the complex models. This study produces and combines metamodels of crop and forest yields and farm profit, derived from previously developed very complex models, to enable prediction of European land use under any set of climate and socio-economic data. Land use is predicted based on the profitability of the alternatives on every soil within every 10' grid across the EU. A clustering procedure reduces 23,871 grids with 20+ soils per grid to 6,714 clusters of common soil and climate. Combined these reduce runtime 100 thousand-fold. Profit thresholds define land as intensive agriculture (arable or grassland), extensive agriculture or managed forest, or finally unmanaged forest or abandoned land. The demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available. An iteration adjusts prices to meet these constraints. A range of measures are derived at 10' grid-level such as diversity as well as overall EU production. There are many ways to utilise this ability to do rapidWhat-If analysis of both impact and adaptations. The paper illustrates using two of the 5 different GCMs (CSMK3, HADGEM with contrasting precipitation and temperature) and two of the 4 different socio-economic scenarios ("We are the world", "Should I stay or should I go" which have contrasting demands for land), exploring these using two of the 13 scenario parameters (crop breeding for yield and population) . In the first scenario, population can be increased by a large amount showing that food security is far from vulnerable. In the second scenario increasing crop yield shows that it improves the food security problem

Pulse processing routines for neutron time-of-flight data

A pulse shape analysis framework is described, which was developed for n_TOF-Phase3, the third phase in the operation of the n_TOF facility at CERN. The most notable feature of this new framework is the adoption of generic pulse shape analysis routines, characterized by a minimal number of explicit assumptions about the nature of pulses. The aim of these routines is to be applicable to a wide variety of detectors, thus facilitating the introduction of the new detectors or types of detectors into the analysis framework. The operational details of the routines are suited to the specific requirements of particular detectors by adjusting the set of external input parameters. Pulse recognition, baseline calculation and the pulse shape fitting procedure are described. Special emphasis is put on their computational efficiency, since the most basic implementations of these conceptually simple methods are often computationally inefficient.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, 5 table

Measurement of the Ge 70 (n,γ) cross section up to 300 keV at the CERN n-TOF facility

©2019 American Physical Society.Neutron capture data on intermediate mass nuclei are of key importance to nucleosynthesis in the weak component of the slow neutron capture processes, which occurs in massive stars. The (n,γ) cross section on Ge70, which is mainly produced in the s process, was measured at the neutron time-of-flight facility n-TOF at CERN. Resonance capture kernels were determined up to 40 keV neutron energy and average cross sections up to 300 keV. Stellar cross sections were calculated from kT=5 keV to kT=100 keV and are in very good agreement with a previous measurement by Walter and Beer (1985) and recent evaluations. Average cross sections are in agreement with Walter and Beer (1985) over most of the neutron energy range covered, while they are systematically smaller for neutron energies above 150 keV. We have calculated isotopic abundances produced in s-process environments in a 25 solar mass star for two initial metallicities (below solar and close to solar). While the low metallicity model reproduces best the solar system germanium isotopic abundances, the close to solar model shows a good global match to solar system abundances in the range of mass numbers A=60-80.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

The association of health literacy with adherence in older 2 adults, and its role in interventions: a systematic meta-review

Background: Low health literacy is a common problem among older adults. It is often suggested to be associated with poor adherence. This suggested association implies a need for effective adherence interventions in low health literate people. However, previous reviews show mixed results on the association between low health literacy and poor adherence. A systematic meta-review of systematic reviews was conducted to study the association between health literacy and adherence in adults above the age of 50. Evidence for the effectiveness of adherence interventions among adults in this older age group with low health literacy was also explored. Methods: Eight electronic databases (MEDLINE, ERIC, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, DARE, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Knowledge) were searched using a variety of keywords regarding health literacy and adherence. Additionally, references of identified articles were checked. Systematic reviews were included if they assessed the association between health literacy and adherence or evaluated the effectiveness of interventions to improve adherence in adults with low health literacy. The AMSTAR tool was used to assess the quality of the included reviews. The selection procedure, data-extraction, and quality assessment were performed by two independent reviewers. Seventeen reviews were selected for inclusion. Results: Reviews varied widely in quality. Both reviews of high and low quality found only weak or mixed associations between health literacy and adherence among older adults. Reviews report on seven studies that assess the effectiveness of adherence interventions among low health literate older adults. The results suggest that some adherence interventions are effective for this group. The interventions described in the reviews focused mainly on education and on lowering the health literacy demands of adherence instructions. No conclusions could be drawn about which type of intervention could be most beneficial for this population. Conclusions: Evidence on the association between health literacy and adherence in older adults is relatively weak. Adherence interventions are potentially effective for the vulnerable population of older adults with low levels of health literacy, but the evidence on this topic is limited. Further research is needed on the association between health literacy and general health behavior, and on the effectiveness of interventions

Study of cosolvent-induced α-chymotrypsin fibrillogenesis: Does protein surface hydrophobicity trigger early stages of aggregation reaction?

The misfolding of specific proteins is often associated with their assembly into fibrillar aggregates, commonly termed amyloid fibrils. Despite the many efforts expended to characterize amyloid formation in vitro, there is no deep knowledge about the environment (in which aggregation occurs) as well as mechanism of this type of protein aggregation. Alpha-chymotrypsin was recently driven toward amyloid aggregation by the addition of intermediate concentrations of trifluoroethanol. In the present study, approaches such as turbidimetric, thermodynamic, intrinsic fluorescence and quenching studies as well as chemical modification have been successfully used to elucidate the underlying role of hydrophobic interactions (involved in early stages of amyloid formation) in α-chymotrypsin-based experimental system. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

Cost-effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention with cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents versus bare metal stents: Results from a patient level meta-analysis of randomized trials

Background: Second-generation drug eluting stents (DES) may reduce costs and improve clinical outcomes compared to first-generation DES with improved cost-effectiveness when compared to bare metal stents (BMS). We aimed to conduct an economic evaluation of a cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stent (Co-Cr EES) compared with BMS in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Objective: To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of a cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stent (Co-Cr EES) versus BMS in PCI. Methods: A Markov state transition model with a 2-year time horizon was applied from a US Medicare setting with patients undergoing PCI with Co-Cr EES or BMS. Baseline characteristics, treatment effects, and safety measures were taken from a patient level meta-analysis of 5 RCTs (n=4,896). The base-case analysis evaluated stent-related outcomes; a secondary analysis considered the broader set of outcomes reported in the meta-analysis. Results: The base-case and secondary analyses reported an additional 0.018 and 0.013 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost savings of $236 and$288, respectively with Co-Cr EES versus BMS. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses and were most sensitive to the price of clopidogrel. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, Co-Cr EES was associated with a greater than 99% chance of being cost savin

Technical Proposal for FASER: ForwArd Search ExpeRiment at the LHC

FASER is a proposed small and inexpensive experiment designed to search for light, weakly-interacting particles during Run 3 of the LHC from 2021-23. Such particles may be produced in large numbers along the beam collision axis, travel for hundreds of meters without interacting, and then decay to standard model particles. To search for such events, FASER will be located 480 m downstream of the ATLAS IP in the unused service tunnel TI12 and be sensitive to particles that decay in a cylindrical volume with radius R=10 cm and length L=1.5 m. FASER will complement the LHC's existing physics program, extending its discovery potential to a host of new, light particles, with potentially far-reaching implications for particle physics and cosmology. This document describes the technical details of the FASER detector components: the magnets, the tracker, the scintillator system, and the calorimeter, as well as the trigger and readout system. The preparatory work that is needed to install and operate the detector, including civil engineering, transport, and integration with various services is also presented. The information presented includes preliminary cost estimates for the detector components and the infrastructure work, as well as a timeline for the design, construction, and installation of the experiment.Comment: 82 pages, 62 figures; submitted to the CERN LHCC on 7 November 201

Escherichia coli-mediated impairment of ureteric contractility is uropathogenic E. coli specific.

BACKGROUND: Ureters are fundamental for keeping kidneys free from uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC), but we have shown that 2 strains (J96 and 536) can subvert this role and reduce ureteric contractility. To determine whether this is (1) a widespread feature of UPEC, (2) exhibited only by UPEC, and (3) dependent upon type 1 fimbriae, we analyzed strains representing epidemiologically important multilocus sequence types ST131, ST73, and ST95 and non-UPEC E. coli. METHODS: Contractility and calcium transients in intact rat ureters were compared between strains. Mannose and fim mutants were used to investigate the role of type 1 fimbriae. RESULTS: Non-UPEC had no significant effect on contractility, with a mean decrease after 8 hours of 8.8%, compared with 8.8% in controls. UPEC effects on contractility were strain specific, with decreases from 9.47% to 96.7%. Mannose inhibited the effects of the most potent strains (CFT073 and UTI89) but had variable effects among other UPEC strains. Mutation and complementation studies showed that the effects of the UTI89 cystitis isolate were fimH dependent. CONCLUSIONS: We find that (1) non-UPEC do not affect ureteric contractility, (2) impairment of contractility is a common feature of UPEC, and (3) the mechanism varies between strains, but for the most potent UPEC type 1 fimbriae are involved

Effects of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents or bare metal stent on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: Patient level meta-analysis

Objectives: To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents.Design: Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported.Data sources and study selection: Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients.Primary outcomes: The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death.Results: The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coro