Seismogenic sources and related active faults in the gulf of Corinth; a combined approach

To νεοτεκτονικό βύθισμα του Κορινθιακού κόλπου αποτελεί μία ιδιαίτερη περίπτωση από γεωδυναμικής και σεισμολογικής άποψης, καθώς τα ιδιαίτερα χαρακτηριστικά των ρηξιγενών επιφανειών και τα σεισμολογικά δεδομένα θέτουν ερωτήματα σχετικά με την σύγχρονη δραστηριότητα ορισμένων ενεργών ρηγμάτων. Η συνδυασμένη χρήση σεισμικών πηγών και νεοτεκτονικών δεδομένων βοηθά στην εκτίμηση του σεισμικού δυναμικού αναδεικνύοντας το ρόλο των προαναφερθέντων στο ήδη πολύπλοκο γεωδυναμικό περιβάλλον.The neotectonic graben of Corinth gulf forms an interesting case study from the geodynamical and seismological point of view, since specific characteristics met on the fault zones around the gulf and the adjacent seismological data pose several questions related with the overall modern activity across a number of neotectonic faults. Indexing active fault zones with structural, seismological and sedimentological criteria leads to thorough understanding of the evolution and modern activity and provide researchers useful tools in order to evaluate the degree of present day activity of the broader area. The combined approach proposed here, with joint use of both, seismogenic sources and structural evidence, contributes to the re-evaluation of the earthquake potential by assessing the role of active features in the already complex geodynamic environment of the Corinthian gul

The Role of Seismic and Slow Slip Events in Triggering the 2018 M 7.1 Anchorage Earthquake in the Southcentral Alaska Subduction Zone

The M 7.1 2018 Anchorage earthquake occurred in the bending part of the subducting North Pacific plate near the geometrical barrier formed by the underthrusting Yakutat terrane. We calculate the triggering potential related with stress redistribution from deformation sources including the M 9.2 1964 earthquake coseismic slip, postseismic deformation, slip from regional M > 5 earthquakes, and the cumulative slip of previously detected slow slip events over the past 55 years. We investigate the deeper shallow depth (20–60 km) seismicity response to these perturbations using an epidemic type aftershock sequence model to describe earthquake‐to‐earthquake interactions. The statistical forecast captures the triggered seismicity during the 1983 M 6+ aftershocks in Columbia Bay but performs poorly during the slow slip event period between 1992.0 and 2004.8 that presents a statistically significant rate change (β , Z > 2; M < 4.0). We find that stress effects from the 1964 postseismic source and the 12‐year‐long slow slip event (~M 7.8) contribute to the 2018 Anchorage earthquake occurrence and that slow slip events modulate the deeper shallow depth seismicity patterns in the region

Testing earthquake links in Mexico from 1978 to the 2017 M = 8.1 Chiapas and M = 7.1 Puebla Shocks

The M = 8.1 Chiapas and the M = 7.1 Puebla earthquakes occurred in the bending part of the subducting Cocos plate 11 days and ~600 km apart, a range that puts them well outside the typical aftershock zone. We find this to be a relatively common occurrence in Mexico, with 14% of M > 7.0 earthquakes since 1900 striking more than 300 km apart and within a 2 week interval, not different from a randomized catalog. We calculate the triggering potential caused by crustal stress redistribution from large subduction earthquakes over the last 40 years. There is no evidence that static stress transfer or dynamic triggering from the 8 September Chiapas earthquake promoted the 19 September earthquake. Both recent earthquakes were promoted by past thrust events instead, including delayed afterslip from the 2012 M = 7.5 Oaxaca earthquake. A repeated pattern of shallow thrust events promoting deep intraslab earthquakes is observed over the past 40 years

ON THE SENSITIVITY OF GROUND MOTION PREDICTION EQUATIONS IN GREECE

Ground motion prediction equations, widely known as attenuation relations, are common input for probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard studies. The construction of a ground motion model to describe such a complex phenomenon as the effects of seismic wave propagation is highly dependable on a number of parameters. The quality and the distribution of strong motion data, which is the original input for the calculation of any ground motion model, can be thought as one of the main parameters that heavily influence the form of ground motion prediction equations. The selected processing scheme, involving significant choices about a series of adjustments and filter specifications, implemented to remove low and high frequency noise, is related with the credibility of the calculated ground motion parameters such as the spectral ordinates. Once a set of response variables for a number of predictors is available, the researcher’s interest is related with the mathematical definition of the ground motion model, in terms of selecting the appropriate parameters and the determination of their coefficients of the equation. Another significant part involves the selection of the optimum solver in order to achieve high confidence level coefficients and a computationally inexpensive solution. Each method should be evaluated through statistics but the researcher should bear in mind that residual analysis and statistical errors, although they can adequately represent the efficiency of the mathematical equations, do not always provide information about where our efforts should lie in terms of further improvement. The scope of this paper is to point out the multi-parametric nature of the construction of ground motion prediction equations and how each of the aforementioned development stages influences the credibility of the proposed attenuation relations

Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe

The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234-3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazar

An automatically generated high-resolution earthquake catalogue for the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence, including P and S phase arrival times

The 2016–2017 central Italy earthquake sequence began with the first main shock near the town of Amatrice on August 24 (Mw 6.0), and was followed by two subsequent large events near Visso on October 26 (Mw 5.9) and Norcia on October 30 (Mw 6.5), plus a cluster of four events with Mw > 5.0 within few hours on 18 January 2017. The affected area had been monitored before the sequence started by the permanent Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC), and was enhanced during the sequence by temporary stations deployed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and the British Geological Survey. By the middle of September, there was a dense network of 155 stations, with a mean separation in the epicentral area of 6–10 km, comparable to the most likely earthquake depth range in the region. This network configuration was kept stable for an entire year, producing 2.5 TB of continuous waveform recordings. Here we describe how this data was used to develop a large and comprehensive earthquake catalogue using the Complete Automatic Seismic Processor (CASP) procedure. This procedure detected more than 450 000 events in the year following the first main shock, and determined their phase arrival times through an advanced picker engine (RSNI-Picker2), producing a set of about 7 million P- and 10 million S-wave arrival times. These were then used to locate the events using a non-linear location (NLL) algorithm, a 1-D velocity model calibrated for the area, and station corrections and then to compute their local magnitudes (ML). The procedure was validated by comparison of the derived data for phase picks and earthquake parameters with a handpicked reference catalogue (hereinafter referred to as ‘RefCat’). The automated procedure takes less than 12 hr on an Intel Core-i7 workstation to analyse the primary waveform data and to detect and locate 3000 events on the most seismically active day of the sequence. This proves the concept that the CASP algorithm can provide effectively real-time data for input into daily operational earthquake forecasts, The results show that there have been significant improvements compared to RefCat obtained in the same period using manual phase picks. The number of detected and located events is higher (from 84 401 to 450 000), the magnitude of completeness is lower (from ML 1.4 to 0.6), and also the number of phase picks is greater with an average number of 72 picked arrival for a ML = 1.4 compared with 30 phases for RefCat using manual phase picking. These propagate into formal uncertainties of ±0.9 km in epicentral location and ±1.5 km in depth for the enhanced catalogue for the vast majority of the events. Together, these provide a significant improvement in the resolution of fine structures such as local planar structures and clusters, in particular the identification of shallow events occurring in parts of the crust previously thought to be inactive. The lower completeness magnitude provides a rich data set for development and testing of analysis techniques of seismic sequences evolution, including real-time, operational monitoring of b-value, time-dependent hazard evaluation and aftershock forecasting