Lymphatic Filariasis Control in Tanzania: Effect of Six Rounds of Mass Drug Administration with Ivermectin and Albendazole on Infection and Transmission.

Control of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa is based on annual mass drug administration (MDA) with a combination of ivermectin and albendazole, in order to interrupt transmission. We present findings from a detailed study on the effect of six rounds of MDA with this drug combination as implemented by the National Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Programme (NLFEP) in a highly endemic rural area of north-eastern Tanzania.\ud The effect of treatment on transmission and human infection was monitored in a community- and a school-based study during an 8-year period (one pre-intervention and 7 post-intervention years) from 2003 to 2011. Before intervention, 24.5% of the community population had microfilariae (mf) in the blood, 53.3% had circulating filarial antigens (CFA) and 78.9% had specific antibodies to the recombinant filarial antigen Bm14. One year after the sixth MDA, these values had decreased considerably to 2.7%, 19.6% and 27.5%, respectively. During the same period, the CFA prevalence among new intakes of Standard 1 pupils in 10 primary schools decreased from 25.2% to 5.6%. In line with this, transmission by the three vectors (Anopheles gambiae, An. funestus and Culex quinquefasciatus) as determined by dissection declined sharply (overall vector infectivity rate by 99.3% and mean monthly transmission potential by 99.2% between pre-intervention and fifth post-intervention period). A major shift in vector species composition, from predominantly anopheline to almost exclusively culicine was observed over the years. This may be largely unrelated to the MDAs but may have important implications for the epidemiology of LF in the area. Six MDAs caused considerable decrease in all the measured indices for transmission and human infection. In spite of this, indices were still relatively high in the late period of the study, and it may take a long time to reach the recommended cut-off levels for interruption of transmission unless extra efforts are made. These should include increased engagement of the target population in the control activities, to ensure higher treatment coverage. It is expected that the recent initiative to distribute insecticide impregnated bed nets to every household in the area will also contribute towards reaching the goal of successful LF elimination

Inverse Statistics for Stocks and Markets

In recent publications, the authors have considered inverse statistics of the Dow Jones Industrial Averaged (DJIA) [1-3]. Specifically, we argued that the natural candidate for such statistics is the investment horizons distribution. This is the distribution of waiting times needed to achieve a predefined level of return obtained from detrended historic asset prices. Such a distribution typically goes through a maximum at a time coined the {\em optimal investment horizon}, $\tau^*_\rho$, which defines the most likely waiting time for obtaining a given return $\rho$. By considering equal positive and negative levels of return, we reported in [2,3] on a quantitative gain/loss asymmetry most pronounced for short horizons. In the present paper, this gain/loss asymmetry is re-visited for 2/3 of the individual stocks presently in the DJIA. We show that this gain/loss asymmetry established for the DJIA surprisingly is {\em not} present in the time series of the individual stocks. The most reasonable explanation for this fact is that the gain/loss asymmetry observed in the DJIA as well as in the SP500 and Nasdaq are due to movements in the market as a whole, {\it i.e.}, cooperative cascade processes (or ``synchronization'') which disappear in the inverse statistics of the individual stocks.Comment: Revtex 13 pages, including 15 figure

The Importance of Suspension Stability for the Hot-wire Measurements of Thermal Conductivity of Colloidal Suspensions.

The development of advanced heat transfer fluids with enhanced thermal conductivity is essential to improve the effective heat transfer behavior of conventional coolants. Thermal conductivity enhancement has been reported for colloidal suspensions formulated with different nanoparticles. Reliable thermal conductivity measurement requires that the suspension is stable against sedimentation during the measurement since particle sedimentation may effect the experimental results. The present study proposes a criterion to ensure that thermal conductivity data is independent of the particle sedimentation. A measuring device based on the transient hot-wire method is designed to allow vertical and horizontal thermal conductivity data collection. Our investigation shows that the thermal conductivity measurements in the horizontal and vertical configurations are almost identical when the colloidal suspension is stable while they differ for unstable systems

Modularity of Convergence and Strong Convergence in Infinitary Rewriting

Properties of Term Rewriting Systems are called modular iff they are preserved under (and reflected by) disjoint union, i.e. when combining two Term Rewriting Systems with disjoint signatures. Convergence is the property of Infinitary Term Rewriting Systems that all reduction sequences converge to a limit. Strong Convergence requires in addition that redex positions in a reduction sequence move arbitrarily deep. In this paper it is shown that both Convergence and Strong Convergence are modular properties of non-collapsing Infinitary Term Rewriting Systems, provided (for convergence) that the term metrics are granular. This generalises known modularity results beyond metric \infty

Urban Lymphatic Filariasis in the Metropolis of\ud Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

The last decades have seen a considerable increase in urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa, and it is estimated that over 50% of the population will live in urban areas by 2040. Rapid growth of cities combined with limited economic resources often result in informal settlements and slums with favorable conditions for proliferation of vectors of lymphatic filariasis (LF). In Dar es Salaam, which has grown more than 30 times in population during the past 55 years (4.4 million inhabitants in 2012), previous surveys have indicated high prevalences of LF. This study investigated epidemiological aspects of LF in Dar es Salaam, as a background for planning and implementation of control. Six sites with varying distance from the city center (3–30 km) and covering different population densities, socioeconomic characteristics, and water, sewerage and sanitary facilities were selected for the study. Pupils from one public primary school at each site were screened for circulating filarial antigen (CFA; marker of adult worm infection) and antibodies to Bm14 (marker of exposure to transmission). Community members were examined for CFA, microfilariae and chronic manifestations. Structured questionnaires were administered to pupils and heads of community households, and vector surveys were carried out in selected households. The study indicated that a tremendous decrease in the burden of LF infection had occurred, despite haphazard urbanisation. Contributing factors may be urban malaria control targeting Anopheles vectors, short survival time of the numerous Culex quinquefasciatus vectors in the urban environment, widespread use of bed nets and other mosquito proofing measures, and mass drug administration (MDA) in 2006 and 2007. Although the level of ongoing transmission was low, the burden of chronic LF disease was still high. The development has so far been promising, but continued efforts are necessary to ensure elimination of LF as a public health problem. These will include improving the awareness of people about the role of mosquitoes in transmission of LF, more thorough implementation of environmental sanitation to reduce Cx. Quinquefasciatus breeding, continued MDA to high-risk areas, and set-up of programmes for management of chronic LF disease

Level Crossing Analysis of the Stock Markets

We investigate the average frequency of positive slope $\nu_{\alpha}^{+}$, crossing for the returns of market prices. The method is based on stochastic processes which no scaling feature is explicitly required. Using this method we define new quantity to quantify stage of development and activity of stocks exchange. We compare the Tehran and western stock markets and show that some stocks such as Tehran (TEPIX) and New Zealand (NZX) stocks exchange are emerge, and also TEPIX is a non-active market and financially motivated to absorb capital.Comment: 6 pages and 4 figure

Fear and its implications for stock markets

The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper, we discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be associated with a long term positive trend. These empirical asymmetries predict that stock index drops are more common on a relatively short time scale than the corresponding raises. We present several empirical examples of such asymmetries. Furthermore, a simple model featuring occasional short periods of synchronized dropping prices for all stocks constituting the index is introduced with the aim of explaining these facts. The collective negative price movements are imagined triggered by external factors in our society, as well as internal to the economy, that create fear of the future among investors. This is parameterized by a ``fear factor'' defining the frequency of synchronized events. It is demonstrated that such a simple fear factor model can reproduce several empirical facts concerning index asymmetries. It is also pointed out that in its simplest form, the model has certain shortcomings.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures. Submitted to the Proceedings of Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis 5, Turin 200

A multiscale view on inverse statistics and gain/loss asymmetry in financial time series

Researchers have studied the first passage time of financial time series and observed that the smallest time interval needed for a stock index to move a given distance is typically shorter for negative than for positive price movements. The same is not observed for the index constituents, the individual stocks. We use the discrete wavelet transform to illustrate that this is a long rather than short time scale phenomenon -- if enough low frequency content of the price process is removed, the asymmetry disappears. We also propose a new model, which explain the asymmetry by prolonged, correlated down movements of individual stocks