Do television and electronic games predict children's psychosocial adjustment? Longitudinal research using the UK Millennium Cohort Study

Background: Screen entertainment for young children has been associated with several aspects of psychosocial adjustment. Most research is from North America and focuses on television. Few longitudinal studies have compared the effects of TV and electronic games, or have investigated gender differences. Purpose: To explore how time watching TV and playing electronic games at age 5 years each predicts change in psychosocial adjustment in a representative sample of 7 year-olds from the UK. Methods: Typical daily hours viewing television and playing electronic games at age 5 years were reported by mothers of 11 014 children from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Conduct problems, emotional symptoms, peer relationship problems, hyperactivity/inattention and prosocial behaviour were reported by mothers using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Change in adjustment from age 5 years to 7 years was regressed on screen exposures; adjusting for family characteristics and functioning, and child characteristics. Results: Watching TV for 3 h or more at 5 years predicted a 0.13 point increase (95% CI 0.03 to 0.24) in conduct problems by 7 years, compared with watching for under an hour, but playing electronic games was not associated with conduct problems. No associations were found between either type of screen time and emotional symptoms, hyperactivity/inattention, peer relationship problems or prosocial behaviour. There was no evidence of gender differences in the effect of screen time. Conclusions: TV but not electronic games predicted a small increase in conduct problems. Screen time did not predict other aspects of psychosocial adjustment. Further work is required to establish causal mechanisms

National Evaluation of the Capacity Building Programme in English Local Government: Evaluation of the National Programmes: Annex 2: Evaluation of the National Programmes

The report is one of a series of outputs from the national evaluation of the CBP, being undertaken by a team of researchers at the Policy Research Institute (PRI) at Leeds Metropolitan University and the Cities Research Unit at the University of West of England. The Capacity Building Programme for local government was launched in 2003 as a joint Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) / Local Government Association (LGA) initiative to support capacity building and improvement activities within local authorities in England. The evaluation of the Capacity Building Programme has been underway since late 2004. A scoping phase was conducted until May 2005, including a short evaluation of the Pilot Programmes. The main phase of the evaluation commenced in September 2005 and encompassed four main phases (see Section 1.3: p10)

Patient reactions to a web-based cardiovascular risk calculator in type 2 diabetes: a qualitative study in primary care.

Use of risk calculators for specific diseases is increasing, with an underlying assumption that they promote risk reduction as users become better informed and motivated to take preventive action. Empirical data to support this are, however, sparse and contradictory

Modelling semi-attributable toxicity in dual-agent phase I trials with non-concurrent drug administration.

In oncology, combinations of drugs are often used to improve treatment efficacy and/or reduce harmful side effects. Dual-agent phase I clinical trials assess drug safety and aim to discover a maximum tolerated dose combination via dose-escalation; cohorts of patients are given set doses of both drugs and monitored to see if toxic reactions occur. Dose-escalation decisions for subsequent cohorts are based on the number and severity of observed toxic reactions, and an escalation rule. In a combination trial, drugs may be administered concurrently or non-concurrently over a treatment cycle. For two drugs given non-concurrently with overlapping toxicities, toxicities occurring after administration of the first drug yet before administration of the second may be attributed directly to the first drug, whereas toxicities occurring after both drugs have been given some present ambiguity; toxicities may be attributable to the first drug only, the second drug only or the synergistic combination of both. We call this mixture of attributable and non-attributable toxicity semi-attributable toxicity. Most published methods assume drugs are given concurrently, which may not be reflective of trials with non-concurrent drug administration. We incorporate semi-attributable toxicity into Bayesian modelling for dual-agent phase I trials with non-concurrent drug administration and compare the operating characteristics to an approach where this detail is not considered. Simulations based on a trial for non-concurrent administration of intravesical Cabazitaxel and Cisplatin in early-stage bladder cancer patients are presented for several scenarios and show that including semi-attributable toxicity data reduces the number of patients given overly toxic combinations. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.G.M. Wheeler and A.P. Mander are supported by the Medical Research Council (grant number G0800860). M.J. Sweeting is supported by a European Research Council Advanced Investigator Award: EPIC-Heart (grant number 268834), the UK Medical Research Council (grant number MR/L003120/1), the British Heart Foundation and the Cambridge National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre. S.M. Lee is supported by the American Cancer Society (grant number MRSG-13-146-01-CPHPS).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.691

The use of repeated blood pressure measures for cardiovascular risk prediction: a comparison of statistical models in the ARIC study.

Many prediction models have been developed for the risk assessment and the prevention of cardiovascular disease in primary care. Recent efforts have focused on improving the accuracy of these prediction models by adding novel biomarkers to a common set of baseline risk predictors. Few have considered incorporating repeated measures of the common risk predictors. Through application to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and simulations, we compare models that use simple summary measures of the repeat information on systolic blood pressure, such as (i) baseline only; (ii) last observation carried forward; and (iii) cumulative mean, against more complex methods that model the repeat information using (iv) ordinary regression calibration; (v) risk-set regression calibration; and (vi) joint longitudinal and survival models. In comparison with the baseline-only model, we observed modest improvements in discrimination and calibration using the cumulative mean of systolic blood pressure, but little further improvement from any of the complex methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.J.K.B. was supported by the Medical Research Council grant numbers G0902100 and MR/K014811/1. This work was funded by the UK Medical Research Council (G0800270), British Heart Foundation (SP/09/002), UK National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council (268834) and European Commission Framework Programme 7 (HEALTH-F2-2012-279233). The ARIC study is carried out as a collaborative study supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute contracts (HHSN268201100005C, HHSN268201100006C, HHSN268201100007C, HHSN268201100008C, HHSN268201100009C, HHSN268201100010C, HHSN268201100011C and HHSN268201100012C).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.714

Landmark Models for Optimizing the Use of Repeated Measurements of Risk Factors in Electronic Health Records to Predict Future Disease Risk.

The benefits of using electronic health records (EHRs) for disease risk screening and personalized health-care decisions are being increasingly recognized. Here we present a computationally feasible statistical approach with which to address the methodological challenges involved in utilizing historical repeat measures of multiple risk factors recorded in EHRs to systematically identify patients at high risk of future disease. The approach is principally based on a 2-stage dynamic landmark model. The first stage estimates current risk factor values from all available historical repeat risk factor measurements via landmark-age-specific multivariate linear mixed-effects models with correlated random intercepts, which account for sporadically recorded repeat measures, unobserved data, and measurement errors. The second stage predicts future disease risk from a sex-stratified Cox proportional hazards model, with estimated current risk factor values from the first stage. We exemplify these methods by developing and validating a dynamic 10-year cardiovascular disease risk prediction model using primary-care EHRs for age, diabetes status, hypertension treatment, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in 41,373 persons from 10 primary-care practices in England and Wales contributing to The Health Improvement Network (1997-2016). Using cross-validation, the model was well-calibrated (Brier score = 0.041, 95% confidence interval: 0.039, 0.042) and had good discrimination (C-index = 0.768, 95% confidence interval: 0.759, 0.777)

Freezing and chemical preservatives alter the stable isotope values of carbon and nitrogen of the Asiatic clam (Corbicula fluminea)

We tested the impacts of most common sample preservation methods used for aquatic sample materials on the stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in clams, a typical baseline indicator organism for many aquatic food web studies utilising stable isotope analysis (SIA). In addition to common chemical preservatives ethanol and formalin, we also assessed the potential impacts of freezing on δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values and compared the preserved samples against freshly dried and analysed samples. All preservation methods, including freezing, had significant impacts on δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values and the effects in general were greater on the carbon isotope values (1.3-2.2% difference) than on the nitrogen isotope values (0.9-1.0% difference). However, the impacts produced by the preservation were rather consistent within each method during the whole 1 year experiment allowing these to be accounted for, if clams are intended for use in retrospective stable isotope studies

The effectiveness of manual stretching in the treatment of plantar heel pain: a systematic review

Background: Plantar heel pain is a commonly occurring foot complaint. Stretching is frequently utilised as a treatment, yet a systematic review focusing only on its effectiveness has not been published. This review aimed to assess the effectiveness of stretching on pain and function in people with plantar heel pain. Methods: Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, and The Cochrane Library were searched from inception to July 2010. Studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were independently assessed, and their quality evaluated using the modified PEDro scale. Results: Six studies including 365 symptomatic participants were included. Two compared stretching with a control, one study compared stretching to an alternative intervention, one study compared stretching to both alternative and control interventions, and two compared different stretching techniques and durations. Quality rating on the modified Pedro scale varied from two to eight out of a maximum of ten points. The methodologies and interventions varied significantly between studies, making meta-analysis inappropriate. Most participants improved over the course of the studies, but when stretching was compared to alternative or control interventions, the changes only reached statistical significance in one study that used a combination of calf muscle stretches and plantar fascia stretches in their stretching programme. Another study comparing different stretching techniques, showed a statistically significant reduction in some aspects of pain in favour of plantar fascia stretching over calf stretches in the short term. Conclusions: There were too few studies to assess whether stretching is effective compared to control or other interventions, for either pain or function. However, there is some evidence that plantar fascia stretching may be more effective than Achilles tendon stretching alone in the short-term. Appropriately powered randomised controlled trials, utilizing validated outcome measures, blinded assessors and long-term follow up are needed to assess the efficacy of stretching

Modeling the initiation of others into injection drug use, using data from 2,500 injectors surveyed in Scotland during 2008-2009

The prevalence of injection drug use has been of especial interest for assessment of the impact of blood-borne viruses. However, the incidence of injection drug use has been underresearched. Our 2-fold aim in this study was to estimate 1) how many other persons, per annum, an injection drug user (IDU) has the equivalent of full responsibility (EFR) for initiating into injection drug use and 2) the consequences for IDUs' replacement rate. EFR initiation rates are strongly associated with incarceration history, so that our analysis of IDUs' replacement rate must incorporate when, in their injecting career, IDUs were first incarcerated. To do so, we have first to estimate piecewise constant incarceration rates in conjunction with EFR initiation rates, which are then combined with rates of cessation from injecting to model IDUs' replacement rate over their injecting career, analogous to the reproduction number of an epidemic model. We apply our approach to Scotland's IDUs, using over 2,500 anonymous injector participants who were interviewed in Scotland's Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative during 2008-2009. Our approach was made possible by the inclusion of key questions about initiations. Finally, we extend our model to include an immediate quit rate, as a reasoned compensation for higher-than-expected replacement rates, and we estimate how high initiates' quit rate should be for IDUs' replacement rate to be 1

Editor's Choice - Re-interventions After Repair of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: A Report From the IMPROVE Randomised Trial.

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: The aim was to describe the re-interventions after endovascular and open repair of rupture, and investigate whether these were associated with aortic morphology. METHODS: In total, 502 patients from the IMPROVE randomised trial (ISRCTN48334791) with repair of rupture were followed-up for re-interventions for at least 3 years. Pre-operative aortic morphology was assessed in a core laboratory. Re-interventions were described by time (0-90 days, 3 months-3 years) as arterial or laparotomy related, respectively, and ranked for severity by surgeons and patients separately. Rare re-interventions to 1 year, were summarised across three ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm trials (IMPROVE, AJAX, and ECAR) and odds ratios (OR) describing differences were pooled via meta-analysis. RESULTS: Re-interventions were most common in the first 90 days. Overall rates were 186 and 226 per 100 person years for the endovascular strategy and open repair groups, respectively (p = .20) but between 3 months and 3 years (mid-term) the rates had slowed to 9.5 and 6.0 re-interventions per 100 person years, respectively (p = .090) and about one third of these were for a life threatening condition. In this latter, mid-term period, 42 of 313 remaining patients (13%) required at least one re-intervention, most commonly for endoleak or other endograft complication after treatment by endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) (21 of 38 re-interventions), whereas distal aneurysms were the commonest reason (four of 23) for re-interventions after treatment by open repair. Arterial re-interventions within 3 years were associated with increasing common iliac artery diameter (OR 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.13-0.93; p = .004). Amputation, rare but ranked as the worst re-intervention by patients, was less common in the first year after treatment with EVAR (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.05-0.88) from meta-analysis of three trials. CONCLUSION: The rate of mid-term re-interventions after rupture is high, more than double that after elective EVAR and open repair, suggesting the need for bespoke surveillance protocols. Amputations are much less common in patients treated by EVAR than in those treated by open repair