Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

New mutations at the imprinted Gnas cluster show gene dosage effects of Gsα in postnatal growth and implicate XLαs in bone and fat metabolism, but not in suckling

The imprinted Gnas cluster is involved in obesity, energy metabolism, feeding behavior, and viability. Relative contribution of paternally expressed proteins XLαs, XLN1, and ALEX or a double dose of maternally expressed Gsα to phenotype has not been established. In this study, we have generated two new mutants (Ex1A-T-CON and Ex1A-T) at the Gnas cluster. Paternal inheritance of Ex1A-T-CON leads to loss of imprinting of Gsα, resulting in preweaning growth retardation followed by catch-up growth. Paternal inheritance of Ex1A-T leads to loss of imprinting of Gsα and loss of expression of XLαs and XLN1. These mice have severe preweaning growth retardation and incomplete catch-up growth. They are fully viable probably because suckling is unimpaired, unlike mutants in which the expression of all the known paternally expressed Gnasxl proteins (XLαs, XLN1 and ALEX) is compromised. We suggest that loss of ALEX is most likely responsible for the suckling defects previously observed. In adults, paternal inheritance of Ex1A-T results in an increased metabolic rate and reductions in fat mass, leptin, and bone mineral density attributable to loss of XLαs. This is, to our knowledge, the first report describing a role for XLαs in bone metabolism. We propose that XLαs is involved in the regulation of bone and adipocyte metabolism

Challenges and Opportunities: What Can We Learn from Patients Living with Chronic Musculoskeletal Conditions, Health Professionals and Carers about the Concept of Health Literacy Using Qualitative Methods of Inquiry?

The field of health literacy continues to evolve and concern public health researchers and yet remains a largely overlooked concept elsewhere in the healthcare system. We conducted focus group discussions in England UK, about the concept of health literacy with older patients with chronic musculoskeletal conditions (mean age = 73.4 years), carers and health professionals. Our research posed methodological, intellectual and practical challenges. Gaps in conceptualisation and expectations were revealed, reiterating deficiencies in predominant models for understanding health literacy and methodological shortcomings of using focus groups in qualitative research for this topic. Building on this unique insight into what the concept of health literacy meant to participants, we present analysis of our findings on factors perceived to foster and inhibit health literacy and on the issue of responsibility in health literacy. Patients saw health literacy as a result of an inconsistent interactive process and the implications as wide ranging; healthcare professionals had more heterogeneous views. All focus group discussants agreed that health literacy most benefited from good inter-personal communication and partnership. By proposing a needs-based approach to health literacy we offer an alternative way of conceptualising health literacy to help improve the health of older people with chronic conditions

Scavenging in Northwestern Europe: A Survey of UK Police Specialist Search Officers

Physical search methods used by police specialist searchers are based on counter-terrorism methods and not on the search and recovery of outdoor surface deposited human remains, nevertheless these methods are applied to scenes involving human remains. Additionally, there is limited published forensic literature within Northwestern Europe on the potential taphonomic agents within this region that are capable of modifying human remains through scavenging, scattering and removal. The counter-terrorism basis in physical search methods and the gap in published forensic literature regarding scavenging in this region can potentially impede searchers’ abilities to adapt physical search methods to their full efficiency in the search and recovery of scavenged human remains. This paper analysed through a questionnaire survey of 111 police specialist searchers, within the U.K., the impact of animal scavenging on the search and recovery of human remains.According to questionnaire respondents’ experiences and knowledge, the occurrence of scavenging at scenes in which respondents took part in a physical search for human remains was common (63.46%,n= 66) and happened most frequently with surface deposits (68.25%,n= 43). Scavenging resulted in the recovery of incomplete sets of remains (59.79%, n= 58) and influenced search perimeters (58.33%, n= 35). Scavenging also affected recovery rates at scene searches (80.43%,n= 74) that included the use of cadaver dogs with police handlers. The impact scavengers within this region have on different crime scene scenarios and search methods is not reflected in current published literature or search standards

Ambient-aware continuous care through semantic context dissemination

Background: The ultimate ambient-intelligent care room contains numerous sensors and devices to monitor the patient, sense and adjust the environment and support the staff. This sensor-based approach results in a large amount of data, which can be processed by current and future applications, e. g., task management and alerting systems. Today, nurses are responsible for coordinating all these applications and supplied information, which reduces the added value and slows down the adoption rate. The aim of the presented research is the design of a pervasive and scalable framework that is able to optimize continuous care processes by intelligently reasoning on the large amount of heterogeneous care data. Methods: The developed Ontology-based Care Platform (OCarePlatform) consists of modular components that perform a specific reasoning task. Consequently, they can easily be replicated and distributed. Complex reasoning is achieved by combining the results of different components. To ensure that the components only receive information, which is of interest to them at that time, they are able to dynamically generate and register filter rules with a Semantic Communication Bus (SCB). This SCB semantically filters all the heterogeneous care data according to the registered rules by using a continuous care ontology. The SCB can be distributed and a cache can be employed to ensure scalability. Results: A prototype implementation is presented consisting of a new-generation nurse call system supported by a localization and a home automation component. The amount of data that is filtered and the performance of the SCB are evaluated by testing the prototype in a living lab. The delay introduced by processing the filter rules is negligible when 10 or fewer rules are registered. Conclusions: The OCarePlatform allows disseminating relevant care data for the different applications and additionally supports composing complex applications from a set of smaller independent components. This way, the platform significantly reduces the amount of information that needs to be processed by the nurses. The delay resulting from processing the filter rules is linear in the amount of rules. Distributed deployment of the SCB and using a cache allows further improvement of these performance results

Population policies and education: exploring the contradictions of neo-liberal globalisation

The world is increasingly characterised by profound income, health and social inequalities (Appadurai, 2000). In recent decades development initiatives aimed at reducing these inequalities have been situated in a context of increasing globalisation with a dominant neo-liberal economic orthodoxy. This paper argues that neo-liberal globalisation contains inherent contradictions regarding choice and uniformity. This is illustrated in this paper through an exploration of the impact of neo-liberal globalisation on population policies and programmes. The dominant neo-liberal economic ideology that has influenced development over the last few decades has often led to alternative global visions being overlooked. Many current population and development debates are characterised by polarised arguments with strongly opposing aims and views. This raises the challenge of finding alternatives situated in more middle ground that both identify and promote the socially positive elements of neo-liberalism and state intervention, but also to limit their worst excesses within the population field and more broadly. This paper concludes with a discussion outling the positive nature of middle ground and other possible alternatives

Open data and digital morphology

Over the past two decades, the development of methods for visualizing and analysing specimens digitally, in three and even four dimensions, has transformed the study of living and fossil organisms. However, the initial promise, that the widespread application of such methods would facilitate access to the underlying digital data, has not been fully achieved. The underlying datasets for many published studies are not readily or freely available, introducing a barrier to verification and reproducibility, and the reuse of data. There is no current agreement or policy on the amount and type of data that should be made available alongside studies that use, and in some cases are wholly reliant on, digital morphology. Here, we propose a set of recommendations for minimum standards and additional best practice for 3D digital data publication, and review the issues around data storage, management and accessibility

All clinically-relevant blood components transmit prion disease following a single blood transfusion: a sheep model of vCJD

Variant CJD (vCJD) is an incurable, infectious human disease, likely arising from the consumption of BSE-contaminated meat products. Whilst the epidemic appears to be waning, there is much concern that vCJD infection may be perpetuated in humans by the transfusion of contaminated blood products. Since 2004, several cases of transfusion-associated vCJD transmission have been reported and linked to blood collected from pre-clinically affected donors. Using an animal model in which the disease manifested resembles that of humans affected with vCJD, we examined which blood components used in human medicine are likely to pose the greatest risk of transmitting vCJD via transfusion. We collected two full units of blood from BSE-infected donor animals during the pre-clinical phase of infection. Using methods employed by transfusion services we prepared red cell concentrates, plasma and platelets units (including leucoreduced equivalents). Following transfusion, we showed that all components contain sufficient levels of infectivity to cause disease following only a single transfusion and also that leucoreduction did not prevent disease transmission. These data suggest that all blood components are vectors for prion disease transmission, and highlight the importance of multiple control measures to minimise the risk of human to human transmission of vCJD by blood transfusion