Трансграничное движение капитала в России: перспективы трансформации внутренней и географической структуры

The relevance of the study is due to the growing influence of external factors on the structure of cross-border capital flows associated with Russia. The aim of the study is to identify the main changes in the internal and geographical structure of international capital flows in Russia, trace their connection with the state economic policy and make practical proposals for improving their internal and geographical structure in Russia. The author uses statistical methods related to the calculation of individual indicators and the analysis of statistical data, the study of international experience. The analysis of the calculated structure of flows and stocks of foreign investment in 2007-2019 proves that the internal structure had an increase in the importance of direct investments in the composition of liabilities and a decrease in the role of reserve assets in the composition of assets. Offshore and related jurisdictions dominate in the geographic structure of direct investment, while the structure of reserve assets has shifted from the United States to Asian countries (China and Japan). International experience indicates the development of new approaches to the regulation of international capital flows, including measures of macroprudential policy. The author made a conclusion about the ineffectiveness of the current economic policy in regulating the internal and geographical structure of cross-border capital flows in Russia and about the prevailing influence of administrative measures by the external players. To improve the structure of international capital flows in Russia, the author suggests using separate currency restrictions, macroprudential policy measures, deoffshorization policy, as well as targeted insurance of external risks for Russian investors.Актуальность исследования обусловлена растущим влиянием внешних факторов на структуру трансграничных потоков капитала, связанных с Россией. Цель исследования — выявить основные изменения во внутренней и географической структуре международного движения капитала в России, проследить их связь с государственной экономической политикой и сформулировать практические предложения по совершенствованию внутренней и географической структуры международного движения капитала в России. Автор применяет статистические методы, связанные с расчетом отдельных показателей и анализом статистических данных, изучением международного опыта. На основании анализа рассчитанной структуры потоков и запасов иностранных инвестиций за 2007-2019 гг. показано, что внутренняя структура характеризовалась ростом значимости прямых инвестиций в составе пассивов и снижением роли резервных активов в составе активов. В географической структуре прямых инвестиций продолжают преобладать офшорные и связанные с ними юрисдикции, тогда как в структуре резервных активов произошел сдвиг от США к азиатским странам (Китай и Япония). Анализ международного опыта свидетельствует о разработке новых подходов к регулированию международного движения капитала, в том числе мерами макропруденциальной политики. Сделан вывод о неэффективности проводимой экономической политики в регулировании внутренней и географической структуры трансграничных потоков капитала в России и о преобладании воздействия административных мер внешних по отношению к России игроков. Для совершенствования структуры международного движения капитала в России автор предлагает: использовать отдельные валютные ограничения, меры макропру-денциальной политики, политики деофшоризации, а также целевого страхования внешних рисков для российских инвесторов

ДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА СТРАН ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ И ВОСТОЧНОЙ ЕВРОПЫ В УСЛОВИЯХ ГЛОБАЛИЗАЦИИ: РЕЖИМЫ И ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ

The paper explores the experience of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in responding to the globalization challenges relating to the monetary policy in terms of choosing a policy regime and a set of tools to implement it. Highlighted are the main globalization challenges for the national monetary policy associated with target restrictions, the impact of external crises and cross-border capital flows. The evolution of monetary policy regimes in the CEE countries corresponds to the “bipolar pattern”. It is shown that countries with the extreme form of the exchange rate fixation demonstrate the best results in quiescent periods and are more affected by crises whereas countries with the inflation targeting regime are characterized by smoothed dynamics of macroeconomic indices. The transformation of the tooling in terms of the active use of macroprudential policy tools in the countries of South-Eastern Europe in the periods preceding a global economic crisis and during transition to new monetary policy tools in some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary) in the post-crisis period is shown.В статье исследуется опыт стран Центральной и Восточной Европы (ЦВЕ) по реагированию на вызовы глобализации для денежно-кредитной политики в части выбора режима и набора инструментов ее реализации. Выделяются основные вызовы глобализации для национальной денежно-кредитной политики, связанные с ограничением по ее целям, воздействием со стороны внешних кризисов и потоков трансграничного движения капиталов. Выявлена эволюция режимов денежно-кредитной политики в странах ЦВЕ, соответствующая «биполярному подходу». При этом показано, что страны с крайней формой фиксации валютного курса демонстрируют лучшие результаты в спокойные периоды и подвержены более сильному воздействию кризисов, тогда как страны с режимом инфляционного таргетирования отличаются более сглаженной динамикой макроэкономических показателей. Показана трансформация инструментария в части активного использования инструментов макропруденциальной политики странами Юго-Восточной Европы в период, предшествующий глобальному экономическому кризису и переходу на новые инструменты денежно-кредитной политики в отдельных странах (Чехия, Венгрия) в посткризисный период

ДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА РОССИИ И ИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ОГРАНИЧЕНИЯ ФИНАНСОВОЙ СИСТЕМЫ

The paper focuses on impediments for efficient implementation of inflation targeting framework in Russia. Different structural and institutional problems of Russian economy and financial system are analyzed, including dependence on fuel sector, impact of external shocks, government-owned banks’ dominance, role of foreign capital on stock market and banking system, low level of trust, financial sanctions etc. Instead of implementing inflation targeting framework the authors offer switch monetary policy goals to crisis management with special focus on set of indicators, including exchange rate, and to supplement monetary policy by some capital account restrictions, macroprudential policy and fiscal policy (in terms of using development banks mechanisms). В статье анализируются ограничения для эффективного применения в России режима инфляционного таргетирования. Выделяются структурно-институциональные проблемы российской экономики (роль топливно-энергетического комплекса, зависимость от внешних шоков), финансовой системы (преобладание принадлежащих государству банков, значительная роль иностранного капитала, низкий уровень доверия, финансовые санкции). Предлагается вместо реализации режима инфляционного таргетирования сосредоточить денежно- кредитную политику России на решении текущих антикризисных задач, выделяя совокупность целевых индикаторов, включающих валютный курс, а также дополнить ее мерами валютного регулирования, макропруденциальной политики и бюджетно-налоговой политики.

THE MONETARY POLICY IN COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE IN THE GLOBALIZATION CONTEXT: REGIMES AND TOOLS

The paper explores the experience of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in responding to the globalization challenges relating to the monetary policy in terms of choosing a policy regime and a set of tools to implement it. Highlighted are the main globalization challenges for the national monetary policy associated with target restrictions, the impact of external crises and cross-border capital flows. The evolution of monetary policy regimes in the CEE countries corresponds to the “bipolar pattern”. It is shown that countries with the extreme form of the exchange rate fixation demonstrate the best results in quiescent periods and are more affected by crises whereas countries with the inflation targeting regime are characterized by smoothed dynamics of macroeconomic indices. The transformation of the tooling in terms of the active use of macroprudential policy tools in the countries of South-Eastern Europe in the periods preceding a global economic crisis and during transition to new monetary policy tools in some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary) in the post-crisis period is shown

Transformation of the Global Financial System in the First Two Decades of the Twenty-first Century

The article analyzes the changes that have occurred in the global financial system in the XXI century. Moreover, the study covers the global financial system in its integrity as a combination of different financial markets and  international financial institutions. Based on the analysis of statistical data, it is shown that the global economic  and financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to a reduction in international capital flows, a change in their structure (towards an increase in the share of foreign direct investment) and a decrease in cross-border financial activity. In  the post-crisis period, government debt and equity markets developed relatively more dynamically, while banking  activity was restrained, including as a result of intersectoral arbitrage caused by international financial system  reforms. The process of reforming the global financial system has reduced risks in certain segments of the global financial market (banking services markets, over-the-counter derivatives), but retained relatively less regulated segments that may be subject to risks of financial shocks. Changes in the global financial architecture have led to the formal involvement of emerging markets in the process of reforming the global financial system  (through the Group of 20) and to some strengthening of the supranational component of regulation. However, in general, the interests of countries with emerging markets both in the reform processes and in the construction of the global financial architecture are not fully taken into account

External effects of US monetary policy

The article focuses on the changes in US monetary policy since the  beginning of the 21st century and reveals the impact of this policy  on the national economies of other countries, especially emerging markets. The US monetary policy influenced the emerging  markets both through the real and financial channels. Through the  latter, the main impact was on the Treasury bills rates and on the  exchange rates. At the same time, the influence on different  countries varied in different periods. For example, interest rates in  Thailand, Mexico and Pakistan before the global economic and  financial crisis in general followed the cycle of US monetary policy.  The “quantitative easing” policy, the statements and the follow-up  actions to abolish it, have influenced cross-border capital flows to  emerging markets. A number of countries, including Russia,  experienced the impact of US monetary policy through the dynamics  of oil prices. Emerging markets face restrictions on their monetary  policy from the US monetary policy, but in practice they seek to  circumvent them through exchange rate regulation, restrictions on  crossborder capital flows and the pursuit of an independent monetary policy, not following the  cycles of interest rate changes in the US

Cross-border Capital Flows in Russia: Prospects for Changing their Internal and Geographical Structure

The relevance of the study is due to the growing influence of external factors on the structure of cross-border capital flows associated with Russia. The aim of the study is to identify the main changes in the internal and geographical structure of international capital flows in Russia, trace their connection with the state economic policy and make practical proposals for improving their internal and geographical structure in Russia. The author uses statistical methods related to the calculation of individual indicators and the analysis of statistical data, the study of international experience. The analysis of the calculated structure of flows and stocks of foreign investment in 2007-2019 proves that the internal structure had an increase in the importance of direct investments in the composition of liabilities and a decrease in the role of reserve assets in the composition of assets. Offshore and related jurisdictions dominate in the geographic structure of direct investment, while the structure of reserve assets has shifted from the United States to Asian countries (China and Japan). International experience indicates the development of new approaches to the regulation of international capital flows, including measures of macroprudential policy. The author made a conclusion about the ineffectiveness of the current economic policy in regulating the internal and geographical structure of cross-border capital flows in Russia and about the prevailing influence of administrative measures by the external players. To improve the structure of international capital flows in Russia, the author suggests using separate currency restrictions, macroprudential policy measures, deoffshorization policy, as well as targeted insurance of external risks for Russian investors