Explaining inconsistencies between data on condom use and condom sales

BACKGROUND: Several HIV prevention programs use data on condom sales and survey-based data on condom prevalence to monitor progress. However, such indicators are not always consistent. This paper aims to explain these inconsistencies and to assess whether the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used can be estimated from survey data. This would be useful for program managers, as it would enable estimation of the number of condoms needed for different target groups. METHODS: We use data from six Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate the total annual number of sex acts and number of condoms used. Estimates of the number of sex acts are based on self-reported coital frequency, the proportion reporting intercourse the previous day, and survival methods. Estimates of the number of condoms used are based on self-reported frequency of use, the proportion reporting condom use the previous day and in last intercourse. The estimated number of condoms used is then compared with reported data on condom sales and distribution. RESULTS: Analysis of data on the annual number of condoms sold and distributed to the trade reveals very erratic patterns, which reflect stock-ups at various levels in the distribution chain. Consequently, condom sales data are a very poor indicator of the level of condom use. Estimates of both the number of sexual acts and the number of condoms used vary enormously based on the estimation method used. For several surveys, the highest estimate of the annual number of condoms used is tenfold that of the lowest estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Condom sales to the trade are a poor indicator of levels of condom use, and are therefore insufficient to monitor HIV prevention programs. While survey data on condom prevalence allow more detailed monitoring, converting such data to an estimated number of sex acts and condoms used is not straightforward. The estimation methods yield widely different results, and it is impossible to determine which method is most accurate. Until the reliability of these various estimation methods can be established, estimating the annual number of condoms used from survey data will not be feasible. Collecting survey data on the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used in a fixed time period may enable the calculation of more reliable estimates of the number of sex acts and condoms used

Beta decay of 115-In to the first excited level of 115-Sn: Potential outcome for neutrino mass

Recent observation of beta decay of 115-In to the first excited level of 115-Sn with an extremely low Q_beta value (Q_beta ~ 1 keV) could be used to set a limit on neutrino mass. To give restriction potentially competitive with those extracted from experiments with 3-H (~2 eV) and 187-Re (~15 eV), atomic mass difference between 115-In and 115-Sn and energy of the first 115-Sn level should be remeasured with higher accuracy (possibly of the order of ~1 eV).Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures; talk at the NANP'05 Conferenc

The Problem of Large Leptonic Mixing

Unlike in the quark sector where simple $S_3$ permutation symmetries can generate the general features of quark masses and mixings, we find it impossible (under conditions of hierarchy for the charged leptons and without considering the see-saw mechanism or a more elaborate extension of the SM) to guarantee large leptonic mixing angles with any general symmetry or transformation of only known particles. If such symmetries exist, they must be realized in more extended scenarios.Comment: RevTeX, 4 pages, no figure

Clinical Determinants and Prognostic Implications of Renin and Aldosterone in Patients with Symptomatic Heart Failure

Aims Activation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system plays an important role in the pathophysiology of heart failure (HF) and has been associated with poor prognosis. There are limited data on the associations of renin and aldosterone levels with clinical profiles, treatment response, and study outcomes in patients with HF. Methods and results We analysed 2,039 patients with available baseline renin and aldosterone levels in BIOSTAT-CHF (a systems BIOlogy study to Tailored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure). The primary outcome was the composite of all-cause mortality or HF hospitalization. We also investigated changes in renin and aldosterone levels after administration of mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) in a subset of the EPHESUS trial and in an acute HF cohort (PORTO). In BIOSTAT-CHF study, median renin and aldosterone levels were 85.3 (percentile(25-75) = 28-247) mu IU/mL and 9.4 (percentile(25-75) = 4.4-19.8) ng/dL, respectively. Prior HF admission, lower blood pressure, sodium, poorer renal function, and MRA treatment were associated with higher renin and aldosterone. Higher renin was associated with an increased rate of the primary outcome [highest vs. lowest renin tertile: adjusted-HR (95% CI) = 1.47 (1.16-1.86), P = 0.002], whereas higher aldosterone was not [highest vs. lowest aldosterone tertile: adjusted-HR (95% CI) = 1.16 (0.93-1.44), P = 0.19]. Renin and/or aldosterone did not improve the BIOSTAT-CHF prognostic models. The rise in aldosterone with the use of MRAs was observed in EPHESUS and PORTO studies. Conclusions Circulating levels of renin and aldosterone were associated with both the disease severity and use of MRAs. By reflecting both the disease and its treatments, the prognostic discrimination of these biomarkers was poor. Our data suggest that the "point" measurement of renin and aldosterone in HF is of limited clinical utility

Declining HIV-1 Prevalence and Incidence among Police Officers - A potential Cohort for HIV Vaccine Trials, in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

A safe effective and affordable HIV vaccine is the most cost effective way to prevent HIV infection worldwide. Current studies of HIV prevalence and incidence are needed to determine potentially suitable cohorts for vaccine studies. The prevalence and incidence of HIV-1 infection among the police in Dar es Salaam in 1996 were 13.8% and 19.6/1000 PYAR respectively. This study aimed at determining the current prevalence and incidence of HIV in a police cohort 10 years after a similar study was conducted. Police officers in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania were prospectively enrolled into the study from 2005 and followed-up in an incidence study three years later. HIV infection was determined by two sequential enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) in the prevalence study and discordant results between two ELISAs were resolved by a Western blot assay. Rapid HIV assays (SD Bioline and Determine) were used for the incidence study. A total of 1,240 police participated in the HIV prevalence study from August 2005 to November 2008. Of these, 1101 joined the study from August 2005-September 2007 and an additional 139 were recruited between October 2007 to November 2008 while conducting the incidence study. A total of 726 (70%) out of the 1043 eligible police participated in the incidence study.The overall HIV-1 prevalence was 65/1240 (5.2%). Females had a non-statistically significant higher prevalence of HIV infection compared to males 19/253, (7.5%) vs. 46/987 (4.7%) respectively (p = 0.07). The overall incidence of HIV-1 was 8.4 per 1000 PYAR (95% CI 4.68-14.03), and by gender was 8.8 and 6.9 per 1000 PYAR, among males and females respectively, (p = 0.82). The HIV prevalence and incidence among the studied police has declined over the past 10 years, and therefore this cohort is better suited for phase I/II HIV vaccine studies than for efficacy trials

"My Children and I Will no Longer Suffer from Malaria": A Qualitative Study of the Acceptance and Rejection of Indoor Residual Spraying to Prevent Malaria in Tanzania.

The objective of this study was to identify attitudes and misconceptions related to acceptance or refusal of indoor residual spraying (IRS) in Tanzania for both the general population and among certain groups (e.g., farmers, fishermen, community leaders, and women). This study was a series of qualitative, semi-structured, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions conducted from October 2010 to March 2011 on Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar. Three groups of participants were targeted: acceptors of IRS (those who have already had their homes sprayed), refusers (those whose communities have been sprayed, but refused to have their individual home sprayed), and those whose houses were about to be sprayed as part of IRS scale-up. Interviews were also conducted with farmers, fishermen, women, community leaders and members of non-government organizations responsible for community mobilization around IRS. Results showed refusers are a very small percentage of the population. They tend to be more knowledgeable people such as teachers, drivers, extension workers, and other civil servants who do not simply follow the orders of the local government or the sprayers, but are skeptical about the process until they see true results. Refusal took three forms: 1) refusing partially until thorough explanation is provided; 2) accepting spray to be done in a few rooms only; and 3) refusing outright. In most of the refusal interviews, refusers justified why their houses were not sprayed, often without admitting that they had refused. Reasons for refusal included initial ignorance about the reasons for IRS, uncertainty about its effectiveness, increased prevalence of other insects, potential physical side effects, odour, rumours about the chemical affecting fertility, embarrassment about moving poor quality possessions out of the house, and belief that the spray was politically motivated. To increase IRS acceptance, participants recommended more emphasis on providing thorough public education, ensuring the sprayers themselves are more knowledgeable about IRS, and asking that community leaders encourage participation by their constituents rather than threatening punishment for noncompliance. While there are several rumours and misconceptions concerning IRS in Tanzania, acceptance is very high and continues to increase as positive results become apparent

Design, implementation and evaluation of a national campaign to distribute nine million free LLINs to children under five years of age in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud After a national voucher scheme in 2004 provided pregnant women and infants with highly subsidized insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), use among children under five years (U5s) in mainland Tanzania increased from 16% in 2004 to 26.2% in 2007. In 2008, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare planned a catch-up campaign to rapidly and equitably deliver a free long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) to every child under five years in Tanzania.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud The ITN Cell, a unit within the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP), coordinated the campaign on behalf of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Government contractors trained and facilitated local government officials to supervise village-level volunteers on a registration of all U5s and the distribution and issuing of LLINs. The registration results formed the basis for the LLIN order and delivery to village level. Caregivers brought their registration coupons to village issuing posts during a three-day period where they received LLINs for their U5s. Household surveys in five districts assessed ITN ownership and use immediately after the campaign.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud Nine donors contributed to the national campaign that purchased and distributed 9.0 million LLINs at an average cost of $7.07 per LLIN, including all campaign-associated activities. The campaign covered all eight zones of mainland Tanzania, the first region being covered separately during an integrated measles immunization/malaria LLIN distribution in August 2008, and was implemented one zone at a time from March 2009 until May 2010. ITN ownership at household level increased from Tanzania's 2008 national average of 45.7% to 63.4%, with significant regional variations. ITN use among U5s increased from 28.8% to 64.1%, a 2.2-fold increase, with increases ranging from 22.1-38.3% percentage points in different regions.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud A national-level LLIN distribution strategy that fully engaged local government authorities helped avoid additional burden on the healthcare system. Distribution costs per net were comparable to other public health interventions. Particularly among rural residents, ITN ownership and use increased significantly for the intended beneficiaries. The upcoming universal LLIN distribution and further behaviour change communication will further improve ITN ownership and use in 2010-2011