Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process

for the ANZICS Centre for Outcome and Resource Evaluation (CORE) of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS)BACKGROUND Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. METHODS Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995–2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) “in-control” status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. RESULTS The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag ₄₀ and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag ₄₀; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals which were in-control with respect to EWMA control limits and one-step prediction error limits (3SE). The expected series was modelled with a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive model. CONCLUSIONS The data generating process of monthly raw mortality series at the ICU level displayed autocorrelation, seasonality and volatility. False-positive signalling of the raw mortality series was evident with respect to RA-EWMA control limits. A time series approach using residual control charts resolved these issues.John L Moran, Patricia J Solomo

Time-series clustering for sensor fault detection in large-scale Cyber-Physical Systems

Large-scale Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) are information systems that involve a vast network of sensor nodes and other devices that stream observations in real-time and typically are deployed in uncontrolled, broad geographical terrains. Sensor node failures are inevitable and unpredictable events in large-scale CPSs, which compromise the integrity of the sensors measurements and potentially reduce the quality of CPSs services and raise serious concerns related to CPSs safety, reliability, performance, and security. While many studies were conducted to tackle the challenge of sensor nodes failure detection using domain-specific solutions, this paper proposes a novel sensor nodes failure detection approach and empirically evaluates its validity using a real-world case study. This paper investigates time-series clustering techniques as a feasible solution to identify sensor nodes malfunctions by detecting long-segmental outliers in their observations' time series. Three different time-series clustering techniques have been investigated using real-world observations collected from two various sensor node networks, one of which consists of 275 temperature sensors distributed around London. This study demonstrates that time-series clustering effectively detects sensor node's continuous (halting/repeating) and incipient faults. It also showed that the feature-based time series clustering technique is a more efficient long-segmental outliers detection mechanism compared to shape-based time-series clustering techniques such as DTW and K-Shape, mainly when applied to shorter time-series windows

Longitudinal investigation of training status and cardiopulmonary responses in pre- and early-pubertal children

PurposeThe presence of a maturational threshold that modulates children’s physiological responses to exercise training continues to be debated, not least due to a lack of longitudinal evidence to address this question. The purpose of this study was to investigate the interaction between swim-training status and maturity in nineteen trained (T, 10 ± 1 years, −2.4 ± 1.9 years pre-peak height velocity, 8 boys) and fifteen untrained (UT, 10 ± 1 years, −2.3 ± 0.9 years pre-peak height velocity, 5 boys) children, at three annual measurements.MethodsIn addition to pulmonary gas exchange measurements, stroke volume (SV) and cardiac output ( Q˙) were estimated by thoracic bioelectrical impedance during incremental ramp exercise.ResultsAt baseline and both subsequent measurement points, trained children had significantly (P < 0.05) higher peak oxygen uptake (year 1 T 1.75 ± 0.34 vs. UT 1.49 ± 0.22; year 2 T 2.01 ± 0.31 vs. UT 1.65 ± 0.08; year 3 T 2.07 ± 0.30 vs. UT 1.77 ± 0.16 l min−1) and Q˙ (year 1 T 15.0 ± 2.9 vs. UT 13.2 ± 2.2; year 2 T 16.1 ± 2.8 vs. UT 13.8 ± 2.9; year 3 T 19.3 ± 4.4 vs. UT 16.0 ± 2.7 l min−1). Furthermore, the SV response pattern differed significantly with training status, demonstrating the conventional plateau in UT but a progressive increase in T. Multilevel modelling revealed that none of the measured pulmonary or cardiovascular parameters interacted with maturational status, and the magnitude of the difference between T and UT was similar, irrespective of maturational status.ConclusionThe results of this novel longitudinal study challenge the notion that differences in training status in young people are only evident once a maturational threshold has been exceeded

Relationship of the Frequency, Distribution, and Content of Meals/Snacks to Glycaemic Control in Gestational Diabetes: The myfood24 GDM Pilot Study

This study examines nutritional intakes in Gestational diabetes mellitus piloting the myfood24 tool, to explore frequency of meals/snacks, and daily distribution of calories and carbohydrates in relation to glycaemic control. A total of 200 women aged 20–43 years were recruited into this prospective observational study between February 2015 and February 2016. Diet was assessed using myfood24, a novel online 24-h dietary recall tool. Out of 200 women 102 completed both ≥1 dietary recalls and all blood glucose measurements. Blood glucose was self-measured as part of usual care. Differences between groups meeting and exceeding glucose targets in relation to frequency of meal/snack consumption and nutrients were assessed using chi-squared and Mann–Whitney tests. Women achieving a fasting glucose target <5.3 mmol/L, compared to those exceeding it, consumed three meals (92% vs. 78%: p = 0.04) and three snacks (10% vs. 4%: p = 0.06) per day, compared with two or less; and in relation to evening snacks, consumed a higher percentage of daily energy (6% vs. 5%: p = 0.03) and carbohydrates (8% vs. 6%: p = 0.01). Achieving glycaemic control throughout the day was positively associated with snacking (p = 0.008). Achieving glucose targets was associated with having more snacks across the day, and may be associated with frequency and distribution of meals and nutrients. A larger study is required to confirm this

Treatments for gestational diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To investigate the effectiveness of different treatments for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Design Systematic review, meta-analysis and network meta-analysis. Methods Data sources were searched up to July 2016 and included MEDLINE and Embase. Randomised trials comparing treatments for GDM (packages of care (dietary and lifestyle interventions with pharmacological treatments as required), insulin, metformin, glibenclamide (glyburide)) were selected by two authors and double checked for accuracy. Outcomes included large for gestational age, shoulder dystocia, neonatal hypoglycaemia, caesarean section and pre-eclampsia. We pooled data using random-effects meta-analyses and used Bayesian network meta-analysis to compare pharmacological treatments (ie, including treatments not directly compared within a trial). Results Forty-two trials were included, the reporting of which was generally poor with unclear or high risk of bias. Packages of care varied in their composition and reduced the risk of most adverse perinatal outcomes compared with routine care (eg, large for gestational age: relative risk0.58 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.68; I2=0%; trials 8; participants 3462). Network meta-analyses suggest that metformin had the highest probability of being the most effective treatment in reducing the risk of most outcomes compared with insulin or glibenclamide. Conclusions Evidence shows that packages of care are effective in reducing the risk of most adverse perinatal outcomes. However, trials often include few women, are poorly reported with unclear or high risk of bias and report few outcomes. The contribution of each treatment within the packages of care remains unclear. Large well-designed and well-conducted trials are urgently needed. Trial registration number PROSPERO CRD42013004608

A comparison of nutritional intake and daily physical activity of girls aged 8-11 years old in Makkah, Saudi Arabia according to weight status

Abstract Background Obesity rates in Saudi Arabia are amongst the highest in the world. It is known that teenage girls are less active than teenage boys, but less is known about the diet and activity patterns in younger girls. Therefore this study sought to investigate dietary intake and daily physical activity in girls aged 8-11 years old in Saudi Arabia. Methods This was a cross- sectional observational study conducted in seven schools across the city of Makkah. A total of 266 girls had anthropometric measurements taken including height, weight, waist circumference and body fat estimations. Dietary assessment using a 4 day unweighed diet diary was undertaken in 136 of these participants, and 134 agreed to monitor their physical activity for the 4 days using an accelerometer. After exclusion for under-reporting, 109 remained in the dietary analysis and 78 in the physical activity analyses. Differences in means between BMI groups were determined using one-way ANOVA with post hoc Tukey test. Multivariable linear regression analysis was performed to look at the effect of multiple variables on body weight. Results A total of 30% of participants were classified obese or overweight. There was a significant difference in the mean daily energy intake between the BMI groups with the obese group having the highest energy, fat, carbohydrate and protein intake (obese group: 2677 ± 804 kcal/d; healthy weight group: 1806 ± 403 kcal/d, p < 0.001), but the percentage contribution of the macronutrients to energy intake remained the same across the BMI groups. There were no differences in number of steps taken per day or time spent in moderate to vigorous intensity exercise according to BMI category. Most of the girls did not meet daily physical activity guidelines (5969 to 6773 steps per day and 18.5 - 22.5 mins per day of moderate to vigorous activity). Multiple linear regression showed that energy intake positively predicted body weight (Beta = 0.279, p =0 .001), whereas, total energy expenditure per kg of body weight and family income had a significant negative influence on body weight (Beta = −0.661, p < 0.001; −0.131, p = 0.028 respectively). Conclusions The results of this cross sectional analysis suggest that obesity in girls aged 8-11 years is linked to excessive energy intake from all macronutrients and the majority of girls in all weight categories are inactive. Research should be conducted to further investigate causal relationships in longitudinal studies and develop interventions to promote dietary change and activity that is culturally acceptable for girls in Saudi Arabia

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) Antidepressants in Pregnancy and Congenital Anomalies: Analysis of Linked Databases in Wales, Norway and Funen, Denmark

Background: Hypothesised associations between in utero exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and congenital anomalies, particularly congenital heart defects (CHD), remain controversial. We investigated the putative teratogenicity of SSRI prescription in the 91 days either side of first day of last menstrual period (LMP). Methods and Findings: Three population-based EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries- Norway (2004–2010), Wales (2000–2010) and Funen, Denmark (2000–2010)—were linked to the electronic healthcare databases holding prospectively collected prescription information for all pregnancies in the timeframes available. We included 519,117 deliveries, including foetuses terminated for congenital anomalies, with data covering pregnancy and the preceding quarter, including 462,641 with data covering pregnancy and one year either side. For SSRI exposures 91 days either side of LMP, separately and together, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (ORs, 95%CI) for all major anomalies were estimated. We also explored: pausing or discontinuing SSRIs preconception, confounding, high dose regimens, and, in Wales, diagnosis of depression. Results were combined in meta-analyses. SSRI prescription 91 days either side of LMP was associated with increased prevalence of severe congenital heart defects (CHD) (as defined by EUROCAT guide 1.3, 2005) (34/12,962 [0.26%] vs. 865/506,155 [0.17%] OR 1.50, 1.06–2.11), and the composite adverse outcome of 'anomaly or stillbirth' (473/12962, 3.65% vs. 15829/506,155, 3.13%, OR 1.13, 1.03–1.24). The increased prevalence of all major anomalies combined did not reach statistical significance (3.09% [400/12,962] vs. 2.67% [13,536/506,155] OR 1.09, 0.99–1.21). Adjusting for socio-economic status left ORs largely unchanged. The prevalence of anomalies and severe CHD was reduced when SSRI prescriptions were stopped or paused preconception, and increased when >1 prescription was recorded, but differences were not statistically significant. The dose-response relationship between severe CHD and SSRI dose (meta-regression OR 1.49, 1.12–1.97) was consistent with SSRI-exposure related risk. Analyses in Wales suggested no associations between anomalies and diagnosed depression. Conclusion: The additional absolute risk of teratogenesis associated with SSRIs, if causal, is small. However, the high prevalence of SSRI use augments its public health importance, justifying modifications to preconception care

Utilization of additive from waste products with gasoline fuel to operate spark ignition engine

Impacts of blending fusel oil with gasoline on fuel combustion have been investigated experimentally in the current research to evaluate engine performance improvement and exhaust emission. Tested fuel include F10, F20 (10% and 20% of fusel oil by volume) and pure gasoline as baseline fuel have been used to operate 4-cylinder SI engine at increasing engine speed and constant throttle valve of 45%. The present results reveal a shorter combustion duration and better engine performance with F10 over engine speeds with maximum value of 33.9% for the engine brake thermal efficiency. The lowest BSFC of 251 g/kW h was recorded at 3500 rpm engine speed also with F10. All blended fuel have almost similar COVIMEP. Less NOx emission was measured with F10 at 4500 engine speed compared to gasoline. However, CO emissions reduced while higher CO2 was observed with introducing fusel oil in the blend. Moreover, HC emission increased an average by 11% over speed range and the highest value was achieved with 10% fusel oil addition compared to 20% and pure gasoline. Accordingly, higher oxygen content of fusel oil and octane number contribute to improve combustion of fuel mixture. © 2022, The Author(s).King Saud University, KSUThis Project is funded by King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Agreement between an online dietary assessment tool (myfood24) and interviewer-administered 24-h dietary recall in British adolescents aged 11-18 years

myfood24 is an online 24hour dietary assessment tool developed for use among British adolescents and adults. Limited information is available regarding the validity of using new technology in assessing nutritional intake among adolescents. Thus, a relative validation of myfood24 against a face-to-face interviewer-administered 24hour multiple-pass recall (MPR) was conducted among 75 British adolescents aged 11-18 years old. Participants were asked to complete myfood24 and an interviewer-administered MPR on the same day for two non-consecutive days at school. Total energy intake (EI) and nutrients recorded by the two methods were compared using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), Bland-Altman plots (using between and within-individual information) and weighted Kappa to assess the agreement. Energy, macronutrients and other reported nutrients from myfood24 demonstrated strong agreement with the interview MPR data and ICC ranged from 0.46 for sodium to 0.88 for EI. There was no significant bias between the two methods for EI, macronutrients and most reported nutrients. The mean difference between myfood24 and the interviewer-administered MPR for EI was -55 kcal (-230kJ) (95% CI: -117, 7 kcal, (-490 to 30 kJ); P=0.4) with limits of agreement ranging between 39% (-797kcal (3336kJ)) lower and 34% (687 kcal (2874kJ)) higher than the interviewer-administered MPR. There was good agreement in terms of classifying adolescents into tertiles of EI (κ=0.64). The agreement between day1 and day2 was as good for myfood24 as for the interviewer-administered MPR reflecting the reliability of myfood24. myfood24 has the potential to collect dietary data of comparable quality to that of an interviewer-administered MPR