Effects of Prediction Feedback in Multi-Route Intelligent Traffic Systems

We first study the influence of an efficient feedback strategy named prediction feedback strategy (PFS) based on a multi-route scenario in which dynamic information can be generated and displayed on the board to guide road users to make a choice. In this scenario, our model incorporates the effects of adaptability into the cellular automaton models of traffic flow. Simulation results adopting this optimal information feedback strategy have demonstrated high efficiency in controlling spatial distribution of traffic patterns compared with the other three information feedback strategies, i.e., vehicle number and flux. At the end of this paper, we also discuss in what situation PFS will become invalid in multi-route systems.Comment: 15 pages, 15 figures, Physica A (2010), doi:10.1016/j.physa.2010.02.03

Prediction feedback in intelligent traffic systems

The optimal information feedback has a significant effect on many socioeconomic systems like stock market and traffic systems aiming to make full use of resources. In this paper, we studied dynamics of traffic flow with real-time information provided and the influence of a feedback strategy named prediction feedback strategy is introduced, based on a two-route scenario in which dynamic information can be generated and displayed on the board to guide road users to make a choice. Our model incorporates the effects of adaptability into the cellular automaton models of traffic flow and simulation results adopting this optimal information feedback strategy have demonstrated high efficiency in controlling spatial distribution of traffic patterns compared with the other three information feedback strategies, i.e., vehicle number and flux.Comment: 14 pages, 15 figure

Social Class

Discussion of class structure in fifth-century Athens, historical constitution of theater audiences, and the changes in the comic representation of class antagonism from Aristophanes to Menander

Optimising mothers’ health behaviour after hypertensive disorders of pregnancy: a qualitative study of a postnatal intervention

Background: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy have longer-term implications, increasing women’s lifetime cardiovascular disease risk. The Blood Pressure Postpartum study is a multi-centre randomised three-arm trial of interventions, ranging in intensity and including education and lifestyle coaching, to support women to maintain or adopt healthy eating and physical activity during the first postpartum year. This qualitative sub-study nested within the main trial aimed to investigate whether and how women adopted healthy behaviours after a pregnancy complicated by a hypertensive disorder. Methods: Semi-structured telephone interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically, following Braun and Clarke principles. They explored behaviour change among new mothers following their hypertensive pregnancy, and the intervention’s effect on their capacity and motivation to pursue healthy lifestyles. Results: Thirty-four women from all three trial arms participated at 10–12 months postpartum. The three main themes were 1) Awareness of cardiovascular risk: some did not acknowledge the health risks, whereas others embraced this information. 2) Sources of motivation: while the majority were motivated to make a concerted effort to adapt their health behaviour, motivation often centred on their baby and family rather than their own needs. 3) Sustaining behaviour change with a new baby: women in the more intensive intervention arm demonstrated increased recognition of the importance of reducing cardiovascular health risks, with greater motivation and guidance to change their health behaviour. There was minimal evidence of crossover amongst groups, with women largely accepting their randomised level of intervention and not seeking additional help when randomised to minimal intervention. Conclusions: Among women participating in an early post-hypertensive disorders of pregnancy randomised controlled trial aimed at improving their cardiovascular disease risk profile, the majority recognised the future health risks and appeared motivated to improve their lifestyle, particularly women in the highest-intensity intervention group. This highlights the importance of structured support to assist women embrace healthy lifestyles especially during the challenges of new parenthood. Trial registration: The Blood Pressure Postpartum study was prospectively registered as a clinical trial with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (anzctr.org.au) on 13 December 2018 (registration number: ACTRN12618002004246)

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

Recently, major advances in the climate–zooplankton interface have been made some of which appeared to receive much attention in a broader audience of ecologists as well. In contrast to the marine realm, however, we still lack a more holistic summary of recent knowledge in freshwater. We discuss climate change-related variation in physical and biological attributes of lakes and running waters, high-order ecological functions, and subsequent alteration in zooplankton abundance, phenology, distribution, body size, community structure, life history parameters, and behavior by focusing on community level responses. The adequacy of large-scale climatic indices in ecology has received considerable support and provided a framework for the interpretation of community and species level responses in freshwater zooplankton. Modeling perspectives deserve particular consideration, since this promising stream of ecology is of particular applicability in climate change research owing to the inherently predictive nature of this field. In the future, ecologists should expand their research on species beyond daphnids, should address questions as to how different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers interact, should move beyond correlative approaches toward more mechanistic explanations, and last but not least, should facilitate transfer of biological data both across space and time

Sex Differences in Primary and Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in China

Background: Despite improvements in diagnostic and therapeutic interventions to combat cardiovascular disease (CVD) in recent decades, there are significant ongoing access gaps and sex disparities in prevention that have not been adequately quantified in China. Methods: A representative, cross-sectional, community-based survey of adults (aged ≥45 years) was conducted in 7 geographic regions of China between 2014 and 2016. Logistic regression models were used to determine sex differences in primary and secondary CVD prevention, and any interaction by age, education level, and area of residence. Data are presented as adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs. Results: Of 47 841 participants (61.3% women), 5454 (57.2% women) had established CVD and 9532 (70.5% women) had a high estimated 10-year CVD risk (≥10%). Only 48.5% and 48.6% of women and 39.3% and 59.8% of men were on any kind of blood pressure (BP)-lowering medication, lipid-lowering medication, or antiplatelet therapy for primary and secondary prevention, respectively. Women with established CVD were significantly less likely than men to receive BP-lowering medications (OR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.65-0.95]), lipid-lowering medications (OR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.56-0.84]), antiplatelets (OR, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.45-0.62]), or any CVD prevention medication (OR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.52-0.73]). Women with established CVD, however, had better BP control (OR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.14-1.50]) but less well-controlled low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.57-0.76]), and were less likely to smoke (OR, 13.89 [95% CI, 11.24-17.15]) and achieve physical activity targets (OR, 1.92 [95% CI, 1.61-2.29]). Conversely, women with high CVD risk were less likely than men to have their BP, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and bodyweight controlled (OR, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.38-0.55]; OR, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.52-0.69]; OR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.48-0.63], respectively), despite a higher use of BP-lowering medications (OR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.01-1.45]). Younger patients (<65 years) with established CVD were less likely to be taking CVD preventive medications, but there were no sex differences by area of residence or education level. Conclusions: Large and variable gaps in primary and secondary CVD prevention exist in China, particularly for women. Effective CVD prevention requires an improved overall nationwide strategy and a special emphasis on women with established CVD, who have the greatest disparity and the most to benefit

Travel cost budget based user equilibrium in a bottleneck model with stochastic capacity

This paper studies a bottleneck model in which the capacity of the bottleneck is constant within a day but changes stochastically from day-to-day between a designed value (good condition) and a degraded one (bad condition). The study relates the travel cost variability due to stochastic capacity with commuters' departure time choice behaviors. We postulate that commuters acquire the variability of travel cost based on past experiences and factor such variability into their departure time choice consideration by minimizing their travel cost budget (TCB), defined as a weighted average of mean travel cost and standard deviation of travel cost. We show that the consideration of TCB yields seven possible equilibrium patterns. Closed form solutions to all possible equilibrium patterns and their corresponding parameter ranges are derived. The rationality of the patterns has been investigated. Dependence of travel cost and the duration of peak hours on the commuters' risk attitude has also been derived in each equilibrium pattern. Finally, numerical studies have been conducted to illustrate the properties

Contemporary epidemiology of hospitalised heart failure with reduced versus preserved ejection fraction in England: a retrospective, cohort study of whole-population electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is common, complex, and often associated with coexisting chronic medical conditions and a high mortality. We aimed to assess the epidemiology of people admitted to hospital with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), including the period covering the COVID-19 pandemic, which was previously not well characterised. METHODS: In this retrospective, cohort study, we used whole-population electronic health records with 57 million individuals in England to identify patients hospitalised with heart failure as the primary diagnosis in any consultant episode of an in-patient admission to a National Health Service (NHS) hospital. We excluded individuals with less than 1 year of medical history records in primary or secondary care; admissions to NHS hospitals for which less than 10% of heart failure cases were linkable to the National Heart Failure Audit (NHFA); individuals younger than 18 years at the time of the heart failure hospitalisation; and patients who died in hospital during the index heart failure admission. For patients with new onset heart failure, we assessed incidence rates of 30-day and 1-year all-cause and cause-specific (cardiovascular, non-cardiovascular, and heart failure-related) emergency rehospitalisation and mortality after discharge, and dispensed guideline-recommended medical therapy (GRMT). Follow-up occurred from the index admission to the earliest occurrence of the event of interest, death, or end of data coverage. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) to compare HFrEF with HFpEF. We computed population-attributable fractions to quantify the percentage of outcomes attributable to coexisting chronic medical conditions. FINDINGS: Among 233 320 patients identified who survived the index heart failure admission across 335 NHS hospitals between Jan 1, 2019, and Dec 31, 2022, 101 320 (43·4%) had HFrEF, 71 910 (30·8%) had HFpEF, and 60 090 (25·8%) had an unknown classification. In patients with new onset heart failure, there were reductions in all-cause 30-day (-5·2% [95% CI -7·7 to -2·6] in 2019-22) and 1-year rehospitalisation rates (-3·9% [-6·6 to -1·2]). Declining 30-day rehospitalisation rates affected patients with HFpEF (-4·8% [-9·2 to -0·2]) and HFrEF (-6·2% [-10·5 to -1·6]), although 1-year rates were not statistically significant for patients with HFpEF (-2·2% [-6·6 to 2·3] vs -5·7% [-10·6 to -0·5] for HFrEF). There were no temporal trends in incidence rates of 30-day or 1-year mortality after discharge. The rates of all-cause (HR 1·20 [1·18-1·22]) and cause-specific rehospitalisation were uniformly higher in those with HFpEF than those with HFrEF. Patients with HFpEF also had higher rates of 1-year all-cause mortality after discharge (HR 1·07 [1·05-1·09]), driven by excess risk of non-cardiovascular death (HR 1·25 [1·21-1·29]). Rates of rehospitalisation and mortality were highest in patients with coexisting chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, and liver disease. Chronic kidney disease contributed to 6·5% (5·6-7·4) of rehospitalisations within 1 year for HFrEF and 5·0% (4·1-5·9) of rehospitalisations for HFpEF, double that of any other coexisting condition. There was swift implementation of newer GRMT, but markedly lower dispensing of these medications in patients with coexisting chronic kidney disease. INTERPRETATION: Rates of rehospitalisation in patients with heart failure in England have decreased during 2019-22. Further population health improvements could be reached through enhanced implementation of GRMT, particularly in patients with coexisting chronic kidney disease, who, despite being at high risk, remain undertreated. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre