Principled Selection of Baseline Covariates to Account for Censoring in Randomized Trials with a Survival Endpoint

The analysis of randomized trials with time-to-event endpoints is nearly always plagued by the problem of censoring. As the censoring mechanism is usually unknown, analyses typically employ the assumption of non-informative censoring. While this assumption usually becomes more plausible as more baseline covariates are being adjusted for, such adjustment also raises concerns. Pre-specification of which covariates will be adjusted for (and how) is difficult, thus prompting the use of data-driven variable selection procedures, which may impede valid inferences to be drawn. The adjustment for covariates moreover adds concerns about model misspecification, and the fact that each change in adjustment set, also changes the censoring assumption and the treatment effect estimand. In this paper, we discuss these concerns and propose a simple variable selection strategy that aims to produce a valid test of the null in large samples. The proposal can be implemented using off-the-shelf software for (penalized) Cox regression, and is empirically found to work well in simulation studies and real data analyses

Identification of the Pangenome and Its Components in 14 Distinct Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans Strains by Comparative Genomic Analysis

Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans is genetically heterogeneous and comprises distinct clonal lineages that may have different virulence potentials. However, limited information of the strain-to-strain genomic variations is available.The genome sequences of 11 A. actinomycetemcomitans strains (serotypes a-f) were generated de novo, annotated and combined with three previously sequenced genomes (serotypes a-c) for comparative genomic analysis. Two major groups were identified; serotypes a, d, e, and f, and serotypes b and c. A serotype e strain was found to be distinct from both groups. The size of the pangenome was 3,301 genes, which included 2,034 core genes and 1,267 flexible genes. The number of core genes is estimated to stabilize at 2,060, while the size of the pangenome is estimated to increase by 16 genes with every additional strain sequenced in the future. Within each strain 16.7-29.4% of the genome belonged to the flexible gene pool. Between any two strains 0.4-19.5% of the genomes were different. The genomic differences were occasionally greater for strains of the same serotypes than strains of different serotypes. Furthermore, 171 genomic islands were identified. Cumulatively, 777 strain-specific genes were found on these islands and represented 61% of the flexible gene pool.Substantial genomic differences were detected among A. actinomycetemcomitans strains. Genomic islands account for more than half of the flexible genes. The phenotype and virulence of A. actinomycetemcomitans may not be defined by any single strain. Moreover, the genomic variation within each clonal lineage of A. actinomycetemcomitans (as defined by serotype grouping) may be greater than between clonal lineages. The large genomic data set in this study will be useful to further examine the molecular basis of variable virulence among A. actinomycetemcomitans strains

Genome-Wide Maps of Circulating miRNA Biomarkers for Ulcerative Colitis

Inflammatory Bowel Disease – comprised of Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis (UC) - is a complex, multi-factorial inflammatory disorder of the gastrointestinal tract. In this study we have explored the utility of naturally occurring circulating miRNAs as potential blood-based biomarkers for non-invasive prediction of UC incidences. Whole genome maps of circulating miRNAs in micro-vesicles, Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells and platelets have been constructed from a cohort of 20 UC patients and 20 normal individuals. Through Significance Analysis of Microarrays, a signature of 31 differentially expressed platelet-derived miRNAs has been identified and biomarker performance estimated through a non-probabilistic binary linear classification using Support Vector Machines. Through this approach, classifier measurements reveal a predictive score of 92.8% accuracy, 96.2% specificity and 89.5% sensitivity in distinguishing UC patients from normal individuals. Additionally, the platelet-derived biomarker signature can be validated at 88% accuracy through qPCR assays, and a majority of the miRNAs in this panel can be demonstrated to sub-stratify into 4 highly correlated intensity based clusters. Analysis of predicted targets of these biomarkers reveal an enrichment of pathways associated with cytoskeleton assembly, transport, membrane permeability and regulation of transcription factors engaged in a variety of regulatory cascades that are consistent with a cell-mediated immune response model of intestinal inflammation. Interestingly, comparison of the miRNA biomarker panel and genetic loci implicated in IBD through genome-wide association studies identifies a physical linkage between hsa-miR-941 and a UC susceptibility loci located on Chr 20. Taken together, analysis of these expression maps outlines a promising catalog of novel platelet-derived miRNA biomarkers of clinical utility and provides insight into the potential biological function of these candidates in disease pathogenesis

Island survivors: population genetic structure and demography of the critically endangered giant lizard of La Gomera, Gallotia bravoana

Background: The giant lizard of La Gomera (Gallotia bravoana), is an endemic lacertid of this Canary Island that lives confined to a very restricted area of occupancy in a steep cliff, and is catalogued as Critically Endangered by IUCN. We present the first population genetic analysis of the wild population as well as of captive-born individuals (for which paternity data are available) from a recovery center. Current genetic variability, and inferred past demographic changes were determined in order to discern the relative contribution of natural versus human-mediated effects on the observed decline in population size. Results: Genetic analyses indicate that the only known natural population of the species shows low genetic diversity and acts as a single evolutionary unit. Demographic analyses inferred a prolonged decline of the species for at least 230 generations. Depending on the assumed generation time, the onset of the decline was dated between 1200-13000 years ago. Pedigree analyses of captive individuals suggest that reproductive behavior of the giant lizard of La Gomera may include polyandry, multiple paternity and female long-term sperm retention. Conclusions: The current low genetic diversity of G. bravoana is the result of a long-term gradual decline. Because generation time is unknown in this lizard and estimates had large credibility intervals, it is not possible to determine the relative contribution of humans in the collapse of the population. Shorter generation times would favor a stronger influence of human pressure whereas longer generation times would favor a climate-induced origin of the decline. In any case, our analyses show that the wild population has survived for a long period of time with low levels of genetic diversity and a small effective population size. Reproductive behavior may have acted as an important inbreeding avoidance mechanism allowing the species to elude extinction. Overall, our results suggest that the species retains its adaptive potential and could restore its ancient genetic diversity under favorable conditions. Therefore, management of the giant lizard of La Gomera should concentrate efforts on enhancing population growth rates through captive breeding of the species as well as on restoring the carrying capacity of its natural habitat.Spanish Ministry of Education; European Life Project [LIFE 02 NAT-E-008614]; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion [REN 2001- 1514/GLO, CGL 2010-18216]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio