The risk of misclassifying subjects within principal component based asset index.

The asset index is often used as a measure of socioeconomic status in empirical research as an explanatory variable or to control confounding. Principal component analysis (PCA) is frequently used to create the asset index. We conducted a simulation study to explore how accurately the principal component based asset index reflects the study subjects' actual poverty level, when the actual poverty level is generated by a simple factor analytic model. In the simulation study using the PC-based asset index, only 1% to 4% of subjects preserved their real position in a quintile scale of assets; between 44% to 82% of subjects were misclassified into the wrong asset quintile. If the PC-based asset index explained less than 30% of the total variance in the component variables, then we consistently observed more than 50% misclassification across quintiles of the index. The frequency of misclassification suggests that the PC-based asset index may not provide a valid measure of poverty level and should be used cautiously as a measure of socioeconomic status

Climate change and water resources in arid regions : uncertainty of the baseline time period

Recent climate change studies have given a lot of attention to the uncertainty that stems from general circulation models (GCM), greenhouse gas emission scenarios, hydrological models and downscaling approaches. Yet, the uncertainty that stems from the selection of the baseline period has not been studied. Accordingly, the main research question is as follows: What would be the differences and/or the similarities in the evaluation of climate change impacts between the GCM and the delta perturbation scenarios using different baseline periods? This article addresses this issue through comparison of the results of two different baseline periods, investigating the uncertainties in evaluating climate change impact on the hydrological characteristics of arid regions. The Lower Zab River Basin (Northern Iraq) has been selected as a representative case study. The research outcomes show that the considered baseline periods suggest increases and decreases in the temperature and precipitation (P), respectively, over the 2020, 2050 and 2080 periods. The two climatic scenarios are likely to lead to similar reductions in the reservoir mean monthly flows, and subsequently, their maximum discharge is approximately identical. The predicted reduction in the inflow for the 2080–2099 time period fluctuates between 31 and 49% based on SRA1B and SRA2 scenarios, respectively. The delta perturbation scenario permits the sensitivity of the climatic models to be clearly determined compared to the GCM. The former allows for a wide variety of likely climate change scenarios at the regional level and are easier to generate and apply so that they could complement the latter

Merging Flows in Terminal Moneuvering Area using Time Decomposition Approach

International audienceWith a continuous growth of air traffic demand, more effort must be made to alleviate the current overloaded airspace charges. This research focuses on the aircraft merging and sequencing problem at Terminal Maneuvering Area. Tactical conflict detection and resolution methods are applied to a predefined route network structure. Speed and time changes are proposed via an optimization methodology to resolve conflicts and maintain separation between aircraft with regard to the wake turbulence constraints and runway occupancy time. A new time decomposition approach is introduced. It consists in partitioning the whole time interval under consideration into several overlapping time windows, and in solving the merging and sequencing problem individually in each such sub-window. Four aircraft status are defined to classify flights according to their temporal position relative to the current sliding window. Moreover, an adapted simulated annealing heuristic is proposed to solve the corresponding sub-problems. Finally, computational experiments of the proposed algorithm, performed on real-world case studies of Paris Charles De-Gaulle airport, show the benefits of this sliding-window time-decomposition approac

Traditional Underground Grain Storage in Clay Soils in Sudan Improved by Recent Innovations

In the central clay plain of the Sudan, traditional subsistence farmers and small farmers that also produce for local markets want to keep the region near food self-sufficiency. They combine annual production of sorghum with underground pit storage of part of the harvest. With increasing climate variability this food security is coming more and more under pressure. Farmers recently experimented with pit innovations that would allow storage for more than one season. These innovations were quantified and further improvements were suggested. It was found that in the most abundantly occurring cracking clay soils, wide shallow pits, using thick chaff linings, with wider above ground soil caps, are most suitable for longer term storage

Effective field approach to the Ising film in a transverse field

We study the phase transitions of the spin-1/2 Ising film in a transverse field within the framework of the effective field theory. We evaluate the critical temperature of the film as a function of the exchange interactions, the transverse field and the film thickness. We find that, if the ratio of the surface exchange interactions to the bulk ones R=Js/J is smaller than a critical value Rc, the critical temperature Tc/J of the film is smaller than the bulk critical temperature Tc^B/J and approaches Tc^B/J as R increases further. On the other hand, if R>Rc, Tc/J is larger than both the bulk Tc^B/J and the surface Tc^S/J critical temperatures of the corresponding semi-infinite system, and approaches Tc^S as R increases further.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, elsart.cls (included

Which is more useful in predicting hospital mortality - dichotomised blood test results or actual test values? A retrospective study in two hospitals

Routine blood tests are an integral part of clinical medicine and in interpreting blood test results clinicians have two broad options. (1) Dichotomise the blood tests into normal/abnormal or (2) use the actual values and overlook the reference values. We refer to these as the "binary" and the "non-binary" strategy respectively. We investigate which strategy is better at predicting the risk of death in hospital based on seven routinely undertaken blood tests (albumin, creatinine, haemoglobin, potassium, sodium, urea, and white blood cell count) using tree models to implement the two strategies

Genome-wide mRNA and miRNA expression profiling reveal multiple regulatory networks in colorectal cancer

Despite recent advances in cancer management, colorectal cancer (CRC) remains the third most common cancer and a major health-care problem worldwide. MicroRNAs have recently emerged as key regulators of cancer development and progression by targeting multiple cancer-related genes; however, such regulatory networks are not well characterized in CRC. Thus, the aim of this study was to perform global messenger RNA (mRNA) and microRNA expression profiling in the same CRC samples and adjacent normal tissues and to identify potential miRNA-mRNA regulatory networks. Our data revealed 1273 significantly upregulated and 1902 downregulated genes in CRC. Pathway analysis revealed significant enrichment in cell cycle, integrated cancer, Wnt (wingless-type MMTV integration site family member), matrix metalloproteinase, and TGF-β pathways in CRC. Pharmacological inhibition of Wnt (using XAV939 or IWP-2) or TGF-β (using SB-431542) pathways led to dose- and time-dependent inhibition of CRC cell growth. Similarly, our data revealed up- (42) and downregulated (61) microRNAs in the same matched samples. Using target prediction and bioinformatics, ~77% of the upregulated genes were predicted to be targeted by microRNAs found to be downregulated in CRC. We subsequently focused on EZH2 (enhancer of zeste homolog 2 ), which was found to be regulated by hsa-miR-26a-5p and several members of the let-7 (lethal-7) family in CRC. Significant inverse correlation between EZH2 and hsa-miR-26a-5p (R(2)=0.56, P=0.0001) and hsa-let-7b-5p (R(2)=0.19, P=0.02) expression was observed in the same samples, corroborating the belief of EZH2 being a bona fide target for these two miRNAs in CRC. Pharmacological inhibition of EZH2 led to significant reduction in trimethylated histone H3 on lysine 27 (H3K27) methylation, marked reduction in cell proliferation, and migration in vitro. Concordantly, small interfering RNA-mediated knockdown of EZH2 led to similar effects on CRC cell growth in vitro. Therefore, our data have revealed several hundred potential miRNA-mRNA regulatory networks in CRC and suggest targeting relevant networks as potential therapeutic strategy for CRC

Quorum-sensing signaling is required for production of the antibiotic pyrrolnitrin in a rhizospheric biocontrol strain of Serratia plymuthica

One mechanism that bacteria have adopted to regulate the production of antimicrobial compounds is population-density-dependent LuxRI-type quorum sensing (QS), exploiting the production of N-acyl homoserine lactone (AHL) autoinducer signals. In biocontrol bacteria, most known cases involve the AHL control of phenazine antibiotics production by rhizospheric pseudomonads. This work is the first to demonstrate that phenazines are not the only group of biocontrol-related antibiotics whose production is regulated by QS systems. Strain HRO-C48 of Serratia plymuthica isolated from the rhizosphere of oilseed rape and described as a chitinolytic bacterium, which protects crops against Verticillium wilt, was also shown to produce wide-range antibiotic pyrrolnitrin and several AHLs, including N-butanoyl-HSL, N-hexanoyl-HSL and N-3-oxo-hexanoyl-HSL (OHHL). The genes splI and splR, which are analogues of luxI and luxR genes from other Gram-negative bacteria, were cloned and sequenced. The mutant AHL-4 (splI::miniTn5) was simultaneously deficient in the production of AHLs and pyrrolnitrin, as well as in its ability to suppress the growth of several fungal plant pathogens in vitro. However, pyrrolnitrin production could be restored in this mutant by introduction of the splIR genes cloned into a plasmid or by addition of the conditioned medium from strain C48 or OHHL standard to the growth mediu

Climate change and anthropogenic intervention impact on the hydrologic anomalies in a semi-arid area : lower Zab river basin, Iraq

Climate change impact, drought phenomena and anthropogenic stress are of increasing apprehension for water resource managers and strategists, particularly in arid regions. The current study proposes a generic methodology to evaluate the potential impact of such changes at a basin scale. The Lower Zab River Basin located in the north of Iraq has been selected for illustration purposes. The method has been developed through evaluating changes during normal hydrological years to separate the effects of climate change and estimate the hydrologic abnormalities utilising Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration. The meteorological parameters were perturbed by applying adequate delta perturbation climatic scenarios. Thereafter, a calibrated rainfall-runoff model was used for streamflow simulations. Findings proved that climate change has a more extensive impact on the hydrological characteristics of the streamflow than anthropogenic intervention (i.e. the construction of a large dam in the catchment). The isolated baseflow is more sensitive to the precipitation variations than to the variations of the potential evapotranspiration. The current hydrological anomalies are expected to continue. This comprehensive basin study demonstrates how climate change impact, anthropogenic intervention as well as hydro-climatic drought and hydrological anomalies can be evaluated with a new methodology