Why do we overestimate others’ willingness to pay?

People typically overestimate how much others are prepared to pay for consumer goods and services. We investigated the extent to which latent beliefs about others’ affluence contribute to this overestimation. In Studies 1, 2a, and 2b we found that participants, on average, judge the other people taking part in the study to “have more money” and “have more disposable income” than themselves. The extent of these beliefs positively correlated with the overestimation of willingness to pay (WTP). Study 3 shows that the link between income-beliefs and WTP is causal, and Studies 4, 5a, and 5b show that it holds in a between-group design with a real financial transaction and is unaffected by accuracy incentives. Study 6 examines estimates of others’ income in more detail and, in conjunction with the earlier studies, indicates that participants’ reported beliefs about others’ affluence depend upon the framing of the question. Together, the data indicate that individual differences in the overestimation effect are partly due to differing affluence-beliefs, and that an overall affluence-estimation bias may contribute to the net tendency to overestimate other people’s willingness to pay.This work was funded by Leverhulme Trust grant RPG–2013–148 and Economic and Social Research Council studentship number ES/J500045/1.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Society for Judgment and Decision Making/The European Association for Decision Making via http://journal.sjdm.org/15/15909/jdm15909.pd

Do Changes in the Pace of Events Affect One-Off Judgments of Duration?

Five experiments examined whether changes in the pace of external events influence people’s judgments of duration. In Experiments 1a–1c, participants heard pieces of music whose tempo accelerated, decelerated, or remained constant. In Experiment 2, participants completed a visuo-motor task in which the rate of stimulus presentation accelerated, decelerated, or remained constant. In Experiment 3, participants completed a reading task in which facts appeared on-screen at accelerating, decelerating, or constant rates. In all experiments, the physical duration of the to-be-judged interval was the same across conditions. We found no significant effects of temporal structure on duration judgments in any of the experiments, either when participants knew that a time estimate would be required (prospective judgments) or when they did not (retrospective judgments). These results provide a starting point for the investigation of how temporal structure affects one-off judgments of duration like those typically made in natural settings

Detection of Rare Antimicrobial Resistance Profiles by Active and Passive Surveillance Approaches.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance systems are generally not specifically designed to detect emerging resistances and usually focus primarily on resistance to individual drugs. Evaluating the diversity of resistance, using ecological metrics, allows the assessment of sampling protocols with regard to the detection of rare phenotypes, comprising combinations of resistances. Surveillance data of phenotypic AMR of Canadian poultry Salmonella Heidelberg and swine Salmonella Typhimurium var. 5- were used to contrast active (representative isolates derived from healthy animals) and passive (diagnostic isolates) surveillance and assess their suitability for detecting emerging resistance patterns. Although in both datasets the prevalences of resistance to individual antimicrobials were not significantly different between the two surveillance systems, analysis of the diversity of entire resistance phenotypes demonstrated that passive surveillance of diagnostic isolates detected more unique phenotypes. Whilst the most appropriate surveillance method will depend on the relevant objectives, under the conditions of this study, passive surveillance of diagnostic isolates was more effective for the detection of rare and therefore potentially emerging resistance phenotypes.AEM was supported by the William Stewart Fellowship whilst at the University of Glasgow, and is currently supported by Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) grant BB/ M014088/1; RR is supported by BBSRC grant BB/ E010326/1 and BB/L004070/1; LM is supported by BB/K01126X/1, BB/L004070/1, BB/F015313/1, National Science Foundation DEB1216040 and an EU-funded Marie Curie Initial Training Network (MCITN) program (NEMATODE SYSTEM HEALTH project (FP7-PEOPLE-2010-ITN- ID:264639)).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Public Library of Science via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.015851

Reducing bias in auditory duration reproduction by integrating the reproduced signal

Duration estimation is known to be far from veridical and to differ for sensory estimates and motor reproduction. To investigate how these differential estimates are integrated for estimating or reproducing a duration and to examine sensorimotor biases in duration comparison and reproduction tasks, we compared estimation biases and variances among three different duration estimation tasks: perceptual comparison, motor reproduction, and auditory reproduction (i.e. a combined perceptual-motor task). We found consistent overestimation in both motor and perceptual-motor auditory reproduction tasks, and the least overestimation in the comparison task. More interestingly, compared to pure motor reproduction, the overestimation bias was reduced in the auditory reproduction task, due to the additional reproduced auditory signal. We further manipulated the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the feedback/comparison tones to examine the changes in estimation biases and variances. Considering perceptual and motor biases as two independent components, we applied the reliability-based model, which successfully predicted the biases in auditory reproduction. Our findings thus provide behavioral evidence of how the brain combines motor and perceptual information together to reduce duration estimation biases and improve estimation reliability

From Nonspecific DNA–Protein Encounter Complexes to the Prediction of DNA–Protein Interactions

©2009 Gao, Skolnick. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000341DNA–protein interactions are involved in many essential biological activities. Because there is no simple mapping code between DNA base pairs and protein amino acids, the prediction of DNA–protein interactions is a challenging problem. Here, we present a novel computational approach for predicting DNA-binding protein residues and DNA–protein interaction modes without knowing its specific DNA target sequence. Given the structure of a DNA-binding protein, the method first generates an ensemble of complex structures obtained by rigid-body docking with a nonspecific canonical B-DNA. Representative models are subsequently selected through clustering and ranking by their DNA–protein interfacial energy. Analysis of these encounter complex models suggests that the recognition sites for specific DNA binding are usually favorable interaction sites for the nonspecific DNA probe and that nonspecific DNA–protein interaction modes exhibit some similarity to specific DNA–protein binding modes. Although the method requires as input the knowledge that the protein binds DNA, in benchmark tests, it achieves better performance in identifying DNA-binding sites than three previously established methods, which are based on sophisticated machine-learning techniques. We further apply our method to protein structures predicted through modeling and demonstrate that our method performs satisfactorily on protein models whose root-mean-square Ca deviation from native is up to 5 Å from their native structures. This study provides valuable structural insights into how a specific DNA-binding protein interacts with a nonspecific DNA sequence. The similarity between the specific DNA–protein interaction mode and nonspecific interaction modes may reflect an important sampling step in search of its specific DNA targets by a DNA-binding protein

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Age differences in social comparison tendency and personal relative deprivation

We examined age-related differences in social comparison orientation and personal relative deprivation (PRD). In Study 1, participants (N = 1,290) reported their tendencies to engage in social comparisons and PRD. Older adults reported lower levels of social comparison tendency and PRD, and social comparison tendency mediated the relation between age and PRD. The findings reported in Study 1 were replicated in Study 2 using a sample of participants between the ages of 18 to 30 (n = 180) and 60+ years old (n = 176). Our findings provide evidence that older adults report lower levels of social comparison tendency that, in turn, relate to lower levels of PRD.This research was funded by a grant from the Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2013-148).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2015.08.00

Postcopulatory sexual selection

The female reproductive tract is where competition between the sperm of different males takes place, aided and abetted by the female herself. Intense postcopulatory sexual selection fosters inter-sexual conflict and drives rapid evolutionary change to generate a startling diversity of morphological, behavioural and physiological adaptations. We identify three main issues that should be resolved to advance our understanding of postcopulatory sexual selection. We need to determine the genetic basis of different male fertility traits and female traits that mediate sperm selection; identify the genes or genomic regions that control these traits; and establish the coevolutionary trajectory of sexes

Secular evolution versus hierarchical merging: galaxy evolution along the Hubble sequence, in the field and rich environments

In the current galaxy formation scenarios, two physical phenomena are invoked to build disk galaxies: hierarchical mergers and more quiescent external gas accretion, coming from intergalactic filaments. Although both are thought to play a role, their relative importance is not known precisely. Here we consider the constraints on these scenarios brought by the observation-deduced star formation history on the one hand, and observed dynamics of galaxies on the other hand: the high frequency of bars and spirals, the high frequency of perturbations such as lopsidedness, warps, or polar rings. All these observations are not easily reproduced in simulations without important gas accretion. N-body simulations taking into account the mass exchange between stars and gas through star formation and feedback, can reproduce the data, only if galaxies double their mass in about 10 Gyr through gas accretion. Warped and polar ring systems are good tracers of this accretion, which occurs from cold gas which has not been virialised in the system's potential. The relative importance of these phenomena are compared between the field and rich clusters. The respective role of mergers and gas accretion vary considerably with environment.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, review paper to "Penetrating Bars through Masks of Cosmic Dust: the Hubble Tuning Fork Strikes a New Note", Pilanesberg, ed. D. Block et al., Kluwe