Backpack-mounted satellite transmitters do not affect reproductive performance in a migratory bustard

Backpack-mounted satellite transmitters (PTTs) are used extensively in the study of avian habitat use and of the movements and demography of medium- to large-bodied species, but can affect individuals’ performance and fitness. Transparent assessment of potential transmitter effects is important for both ethical accountability and confidence in, or adjustment to, life history parameter estimates. We assessed the influence of transmitters on seven reproductive parameters in Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii, comparing 114 nests of 38 females carrying PTTs to 184 nests of untagged birds (non-PTT) over seven breeding seasons (2012‒2018) in Uzbekistan. There was no evidence of any influence of PTTs on: lay date (non-PTT x̅ = 91.7 Julian day ± 12.3 SD; PTT x̅ = 95.1 Julian day ± 15.7 SD); clutch size (non-PTT x̅ = 3.30 ± 0.68 SD; PTT x̅ = 3.25 ± 0.65 SD); mean egg weight at laying (non-PTT x̅ = 66.1g ± 5.4 SD; PTT x̅ = 66.4g ± 5.4 SD); nest success (non-PTT x̅ = 57.08% ± 4.3 SE; PTT x̅ = 58.24% ± 4.5 SE for nests started 2 April); egg hatchability (non-PTT x̅ = 88.3% ± 2.2 SE; PTT x̅ = 88.3% ± 2.6 SE); or chick survival to fledging from broods that had at least one surviving chick (non-PTT x̅ = 63.4% ± 4.2 SE; PTT x̅= 64.4% ± 4.7 SE). High nesting propensity (97.3% year-1 ± 1.9% SE) of tagged birds indicated minimal PTT effect on breeding probability. These findings show harness-mounted transmitters can give unbiased measures of demographic parameters of this species, and are relevant to other large-bodied, cursorial, ground-nesting birds of open habitats, particularly other bustards

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

The Reproductive Ecology of Industrial Societies, Part I : Why Measuring Fertility Matters.

Is fertility relevant to evolutionary analyses conducted in modern industrial societies? This question has been the subject of a highly contentious debate, beginning in the late 1980s and continuing to this day. Researchers in both evolutionary and social sciences have argued that the measurement of fitness-related traits (e.g., fertility) offers little insight into evolutionary processes, on the grounds that modern industrial environments differ so greatly from those of our ancestral past that our behavior can no longer be expected to be adaptive. In contrast, we argue that fertility measurements in industrial society are essential for a complete evolutionary analysis: in particular, such data can provide evidence for any putative adaptive mismatch between ancestral environments and those of the present day, and they can provide insight into the selection pressures currently operating on contemporary populations. Having made this positive case, we then go on to discuss some challenges of fertility-related analyses among industrialized populations, particularly those that involve large-scale databases. These include "researcher degrees of freedom" (i.e., the choices made about which variables to analyze and how) and the different biases that may exist in such data. Despite these concerns, large datasets from multiple populations represent an excellent opportunity to test evolutionary hypotheses in great detail, enriching the evolutionary understanding of human behavior