The modulating influence of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures on Australian region seasonal tropical cyclone counts

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. The Australian region seasonal tropical cyclone count (TCC) maintained a robust statistical relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with skillful forecasts of above (below) average TCC during La Niña (El Niño) years from 1969 until about 1998, weakening thereafter. The current study identifies an additional climate driver that mitigates the loss of predictive skill for Australian TCC after about 1998. It is found that the seasonal Australian TCC is strongly modulated by a southwest-to-northeast-oriented dipole in Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), referred to here as the transverse Indian Ocean dipole (TIOD). The TIOD emerges as the leading mode of detrended Indian Ocean SSTAs in the Southern Hemisphere during late winter and spring. Active (inactive) TC seasons are linked to positive (negative) TIOD phases, most notably during August-October immediately preceding the TC season, when SSTAs northwest of Australia, in the northeast pole of the TIOD, are positive (negative). To provide a physical interpretation of the TIOD-TCC relationship, 850-hPa zonal winds, 850-hPa relative vorticity, and 600-hPa relative humidity are composited for positive and negative TIOD phases, providing results consistent with observed TCC modulation. Correlations between ENSO and TCC weaken from 1998 onward, becoming statistically insignificant, whereas the TIOD-TCC correlation remains statistically significant until 2003. Overall, TIOD outperforms Niño-4 SSTA as a TCC predictor (46% skill increase since about 1998), when used individually or with Niño-4. The combination of TIOD and Niño 4 provide a skill increase (up to 33%) over climatology, demonstrating reliably accurate seasonal predictions of Australian region TCC

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of ethiopia/horn of Africa monsoon. Part II: Statistical multimodel ensemble rainfall predictions

© 2015 American Meteorological Society. An ensemble-based multiple linear regression technique is developed to assess the predictability of regional and national June-September (JJAS) anomalies and local monthly rainfall totals for Ethiopia. The ensemble prediction approach captures potential predictive signals in regional circulations and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) two to three months in advance of the monsoon season. Sets of 20 potential predictors are selected from visual assessments of correlation maps that relate rainfall with regional and global predictors. Individual predictors in each set are utilized to initialize specific forward stepwise regression models to develop ensembles of equal number of statistical model estimates, which allow quantifying prediction uncertainties related to individual predictors and models. Prediction skill improvement is achieved through error minimization afforded by the ensemble. For retroactive validation (RV), the ensemble predictions reproduce well the observed all-Ethiopian JJAS rainfall variability two months in advance. The ensemble mean prediction outperforms climatology, with mean square error reduction (SSClim) of 62%. The skill of the prediction remains high for leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV), with the observed-predicted correlation r (SSClim) being +0.81 (65%) for 1970-2002. For tercile predictions (below, near, and above normal), the ranked probability skill score is 0.45, indicating improvement compared to climatological forecasts. Similarly high prediction skill is found for local prediction of monthly rainfall total at Addis Ababa (r = +0.72) and Combolcha (r = +0.68), and for regional prediction of JJAS standardized rainfall anomalies for northeastern Ethiopia (r = +0.80). Compared to the previous generation of rainfall forecasts, the ensemble predictions developed in this paper show substantial value to benefit society

An assessment of areal coverage of severe weather parameters for severe weather outbreak diagnosis

The areal extent of severeweather parameters favorable for significant severeweather is evaluated as a means of identifying major severe weather outbreaks. The first areal coverage method uses kernel density estimation (KDE) to identify severeweather outbreak locations. Aselected severeweather parameter value is computed at each grid point within the region identified by KDE. The average, median, or sum value is used to diagnose the event's severity. The second areal coverage method finds the largest contiguous region where a severe weather parameter exceeds a specified threshold that intersects theKDEregion. The severeweather parameter values at grid points within the parameter exceedance region are computed, with the average, median, or sumvalue used to diagnose the event's severity. A total of 4057 severe weather outbreaks from 1979 to 2008 are analyzed. An event is considered a major outbreak if it exceeds a selected ranking index score (developed in previous work), and is a minor event otherwise. The areal coverage method is also compared to Storm Prediction Center (SPC) day-1 convective outlooks from 2003 to 2008. Comparisons of the SPC forecasts and areal coverage diagnoses indicate the areal coverage methods have similar skill to SPC convective outlooks in discriminating major and minor severe weather outbreaks. Despite a seemingly large sample size, the rare-events nature of the dataset leads to sample size sensitivities. Nevertheless, the findings of this study suggest that areal coverage should be tested in a forecasting environment as a means of providing guidance in future outbreak scenarios. © 2012 American Meteorological Society

Synoptic composites of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks

Tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks occur within the United States and elsewhere around the world each year with devastating effect. However, few studies have considered the physical differences between these two outbreak types. To address this issue, synoptic-scale pattern composites of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks are formulated over North America using a rotated principal component analysis (RPCA). A cluster analysis of the RPC loadings group similar outbreak events, and the resulting map types represent an idealized composite of the constituent cases in each cluster. These composites are used to initialize aWeather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation of each hypothetical composite outbreak type in an effort to determine the WRF's capability to distinguish the outbreak type each composite represents. Synoptic-scale pattern analyses of the composites reveal strikingly different characteristics within each outbreak type, particularly in the wind fields. The tornado outbreak composites reveal a strong low- and midlevel cyclone over the eastern Rockies, which is likely responsible for the observed surface low pressure system in the plains. Composite soundings from the hypothetical outbreak centroids reveal significantly greater bulk shear and storm-relative environmental helicity values in the tornado outbreak environment, whereas instability fields are similar between the two outbreak types. The WRF simulations of the map types confirm results observed in the composite soundings. © 2012 American Meteorological Society

Search for the Decays B^0 -> D^{(*)+} D^{(*)-}

Using the CLEO-II data set we have searched for the Cabibbo-suppressed decays B^0 -> D^{(*)+} D^{(*)-}. For the decay B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}, we observe one candidate signal event, with an expected background of 0.022 +/- 0.011 events. This yield corresponds to a branching fraction of Br(B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}) = (5.3^{+7.1}_{-3.7}(stat) +/- 1.0(syst)) x 10^{-4} and an upper limit of Br(B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}) D^{*\pm} D^\mp and B^0 -> D^+ D^-, no significant excess of signal above the expected background level is seen, and we calculate the 90% CL upper limits on the branching fractions to be Br(B^0 -> D^{*\pm} D^\mp) D^+ D^-) < 1.2 x 10^{-3}.Comment: 12 page postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to Physical Review Letter

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

Hydropower comprises a significant and rapidly expanding proportion of electricity production in eastern and southern Africa. In both regions, hydropower is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional climate linkages are strong, yet an understanding of spatial interdependences is lacking. Here we consider river basin configuration and define regions of coherent rainfall variability using cluster analysis to illustrate exposure to the risk of hydropower supply disruption of current (2015) and planned (2030) hydropower sites. Assuming completion of the dams planned, hydropower will become increasingly concentrated in the Nile (from 62% to 82% of total regional capacity) and Zambezi (from 73% to 85%) basins. By 2030, 70% and 59% of total hydropower capacity will be located in one cluster of rainfall variability in eastern and southern Africa, respectively, increasing the risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption in each region. Linking of nascent regional electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate intraregional risk, although these mechanisms face considerable political and infrastructural challenges

Motives for choosing growth-enhancing hormone treatment in adolescents with idiopathic short stature: a questionnaire and structured interview study

Background Growth-enhancing hormone treatment is considered a possible intervention in short but otherwise healthy adolescents. Although height gain is an obvious measure for evaluating hormone treatment, this may not be the ultimate goal for the person, but rather a means to reach other goals such as the amelioration of current height-related psychosocial problems or the enhancement of future prospects in life and society. The aim of our study was to clarify the motives of adolescents and their parents when choosing to participate in a growth-enhancing trial combining growth hormone and puberty-delaying hormone treatment. Methods Participants were early pubertal adolescents (25 girls, 13 boys) aged from 11 to 13 years (mean age 11.5 years) with a height standard deviation score (SDS) ranging from -1.03 to -3.43. All had been classified as idiopathic short stature or persistent short stature born small for the gestational age (intrauterine growth retardation) on the basis of a height SDS below -2, or had a height SDS between -1 and -2 and a predicted adult height SDS below -2. The adolescents and their parents completed questionnaires and a structured interview on the presence of height-related stressors, parental worries about their child's behavior and future prospects, problems in psychosocial functioning, and treatment expectations. Questionnaire scores were compared to norms of the general Dutch population. Results The adolescents reported normal psychosocial functioning and highly positive expectations of the treatment in terms of height gain, whereas the parents reported that their children encountered some behavioral problems (being anxious/depressed, and social and attention problems) and height-related stressors (being teased and juvenilized). About 40% of the parents were worried about their children's future prospects for finding a spouse or job. The motives of the adolescents and their parents exhibited rather different profiles. The most prevalent parental worries related to the current or future functioning of their children, while a few cases were characterized by no observed motives or by psychosocial problems only reported by the adolescents themselves. Conclusion The motives for participating in a growth-enhancing hormone trial are more obvious in the parents than in the adolescents themselves. Two out of three parents report worries about the future opportunities or observe modest current psychosocial problems in their children. The adolescents want to gain height, but the motivation underlying this remains unclear. Few of the adolescents experience psychosocial problems. Our analyses revealed differences among individuals in terms of motives, which implies that in an evaluation of hormone treatment, the importance of divergent outcome variables will also differ among individuals. Effectiveness evaluations of hormone treatment to increase height and the consequential fulfillment of other goals must be awaited

Combining dispersion modelling with synoptic patterns to understand the wind-borne transport into the UK of the bluetongue disease vector

Bluetongue, an economically important animal disease, can be spread over long distances by carriage of insect vectors (Culicoides biting midges) on the wind. The weather conditions which influence the midge’s flight are controlled by synoptic scale atmospheric circulations. A method is proposed that links wind-borne dispersion of the insects to synoptic circulation through the use of a dispersion model in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. We illustrate how to identify the main synoptic situations present during times of midge incursions into the UK from the European continent. A PCA was conducted on high-pass-filtered mean sea-level pressure data for a domain centred over north-west Europe from 2005 to 2007. A clustering algorithm applied to the PCA scores indicated the data should be divided into five classes for which averages were calculated, providing a classification of the main synoptic types present. Midge incursion events were found to mainly occur in two synoptic categories; 64.8% were associated with a pattern displaying a pressure gradient over the North Atlantic leading to moderate south-westerly flow over the UK and 17.9% of the events occurred when high pressure dominated the region leading to south-easterly or easterly winds. The winds indicated by the pressure maps generally compared well against observations from a surface station and analysis charts. This technique could be used to assess frequency and timings of incursions of virus into new areas on seasonal and decadal timescales, currently not possible with other dispersion or biological modelling methods

First Observation of τ→3πηντ\tau\to 3\pi\eta\nu_{\tau} and τ→f1πντ\tau\to f_{1}\pi\nu_{\tau} Decays

We have observed new channels for $\tau$ decays with an $\eta$ in the final state. We study 3-prong tau decays, using the $\eta\to\gamma\gamma$ and \eta\to 3\piz decay modes and 1-prong decays with two \piz's using the $\eta\to\gamma\gamma$ channel. The measured branching fractions are \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}\pi^{-}\pi^{+}\eta\nu_{\tau}) =(3.4^{+0.6}_{-0.5}\pm0.6)\times10^{-4} and \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}2\piz\eta\nu_{\tau} =(1.4\pm0.6\pm0.3)\times10^{-4}. We observe clear evidence for $f_1\to\eta\pi\pi$ substructure and measure \B(\tau^{-}\to f_1\pi^{-}\nu_{\tau})=(5.8^{+1.4}_{-1.3}\pm1.8)\times10^{-4}. We have also searched for $\eta'(958)$ production and obtain 90% CL upper limits \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}\eta'\nu_\tau)<7.4\times10^{-5} and \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}\piz\eta'\nu_\tau)<8.0\times10^{-5}.Comment: 11 page postscript file, postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN