Search for Gravitational Waves from Primordial Black Hole Binary Coalescences in the Galactic Halo

We use data from the second science run of the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors to search for the gravitational waves from primordial black hole (PBH) binary coalescence with component masses in the range 0.2--$1.0 M_\odot$. The analysis requires a signal to be found in the data from both LIGO observatories, according to a set of coincidence criteria. No inspiral signals were found. Assuming a spherical halo with core radius 5 kpc extending to 50 kpc containing non-spinning black holes with masses in the range 0.2--$1.0 M_\odot$, we place an observational upper limit on the rate of PBH coalescence of 63 per year per Milky Way halo (MWH) with 90% confidence.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, to be submitted to Phys. Rev.

Forecasting Non-Stationary Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infection, and Malaria Time-Series in Niono, Mali

BACKGROUND: Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel

State–Space Forecasting of Schistosoma haematobium Time-Series in Niono, Mali

Adequate forecasting and early warning systems are based upon observations of human behavior, population, disease time-series, climate, environment, and/or a combination thereof, whichever option best compromises among realism, feasibility, robustness, and parsimony. Fully automatic and user-friendly state–space forecasting frameworks, incorporating myriad options (e.g., expert opinion, univariate, multivariate, and spatial-temporal), could considerably enhance disease control and hazard mitigation efforts in regions where vulnerability to neglected tropical diseases is pervasive and statistical expertise is scarce. The operational simplicity, generality, and flexibility of state–space frameworks, encapsulating multiple methods, could conveniently allow for 1) unsupervised model selection without disease-specific methodological tailoring, 2) on-line adaptation to disease time-series fluctuations, and 3) automatic switches between distinct forecasting methods as new time-series perturbations dictate. In this investigation, a univariate state–space framework with the aforementioned properties was successfully applied to the Schistosoma haematobium time-series for the district of Niono, Mali, to automatically generate contemporaneous on-line forecasts and hence, providing a basis for local re-organization and strengthening public health programs in this and potentially other Sahelian districts

The Relative Influence of Competition and Prey Defenses on the Phenotypic Structure of Insectivorous Bat Ensembles in Southern Africa

Deterministic filters such as competition and prey defences should have a strong influence on the community structure of animals such as insectivorous bats that have life histories characterized by low fecundity, low predation risk, long life expectancy, and stable populations. We investigated the relative influence of these two deterministic filters on the phenotypic structure of insectivorous bat ensembles in southern Africa. We used null models to simulate the random phenotypic patterns expected in the absence of competition or prey defences and analysed the deviations of the observed phenotypic pattern from these expected random patterns. The phenotypic structure at local scales exhibited non-random patterns consistent with both competition and prey defense hypotheses. There was evidence that competition influenced body size distribution across ensembles. Competition also influenced wing and echolocation patterns in ensembles and in functional foraging groups with high species richness or abundance. At the same time, prey defense filters influenced echolocation patterns in two species-poor ensembles. Non-random patterns remained evident even after we removed the influence of body size from wing morphology and echolocation parameters taking phylogeny into account. However, abiotic filters such as geographic distribution ranges of small and large-bodied species, extinction risk, and the physics of flight and sound probably also interacted with biotic filters at local and/or regional scales to influence the community structure of sympatric bats in southern Africa. Future studies should investigate alternative parameters that define bat community structure such as diet and abundance to better determine the influence of competition and prey defences on the structure of insectivorous bat ensembles in southern Africa

Habitat associations of juvenile versus adult butterflyfishes

Author Posting. © Springer-Verlag, 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer-Verlag for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Coral Reefs 27 (2008): 541-551, doi:10.1007/s00338-008-0357-8.Many coral reef fishes exhibit distinct ontogenetic shifts in habitat use while some species settle directly in adult habitats, but there is not any general explanation to account for these differences in settlement strategies among coral reef fishes. This study compared distribution patterns and habitat associations of juvenile (young of the year) butterflyfishes to those of adult conspecifics. Three species, Chaetodon auriga, Chaetodon melannotus, and Chaetodon vagabundus, all of which have limited reliance on coral for food, exhibited marked differences in habitat association of juvenile versus adult individuals. Juveniles of these species were consistently found in shallow-water habitats, whereas adult conspecifics were widely distributed throughout a range of habitats. Juveniles of seven other species (Chaetodon aureofasciatus, Chaetodon baronessa, Chaetodon citrinellus, Chaetodon lunulatus, Chaetodon plebeius, Chaetodon rainfordi, and Chaetodon trifascialis), all of which feed predominantly on live corals, settled directly into habitat occupied by adult conspecifics. Butterflyfishes with strong reliance on corals appear to be constrained to settle in habitats that provide access to essential prey resources, precluding their use of distinct juvenile habitats. More generalist butterflyfishes, however, appear to utilise distinct juvenile habitats and exhibit marked differences in the distribution of juveniles versus adults.This research was funded by a JCU Program Grant to MSP, while MLB was supported by an NSF (USA) Graduate Research Fellowship

Assessment of factors associated with complete immunization coverage in children aged 12-23 months: a cross-sectional study in Nouna district, Burkina Faso

This study identifies specific factors associated with immunization status in Nouna health district (Burkina Faso) in order to advance improved intervention strategies in this district and in those with similar environmental and social contexts. While comprehensive communication may improve understanding about immunization, local interventions should also take into account religious specificities and critical economic periods. Communication problems need to be examined; for instance, many respondents did not understand what the health workers wanted; and or they assumed their child was already totally immunized. Particular approaches that take into consideration local distinctions need to be applied

Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data

Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As a result, they are widely used, especially for inventory and production forecasts, for operational planning for up to two years ahead, and for long-term forecasts in some situations, such as population forecasting. This paper provides principles for selecting and preparing data, making seasonal adjustments, extrapolating, assessing uncertainty, and identifying when to use extrapolation. The principles are based on received wisdom (i.e., experts’ commonly held opinions) and on empirical studies. Some of the more important principles are:• In selecting and preparing data, use all relevant data and adjust the data for important events that occurred in the past.• Make seasonal adjustments only when seasonal effects are expected and only if there is good evidence by which to measure them.• In extrapolating, use simple functional forms. Weight the most recent data heavily if there are small measurement errors, stable series, and short forecast horizons. Domain knowledge and forecasting expertise can help to select effective extrapolation procedures. When there is uncertainty, be conservative in forecasting trends. Update extrapolation models as new data are received.• To assess uncertainty, make empirical estimates to establish prediction intervals.• Use pure extrapolation when many forecasts are required, little is known about the situation, the situation is stable, and expert forecasts might be biased

A case of behavioural diversification in male floral function – the evolution of thigmonastic pollen presentation

The authors gratefully acknowledge funding provided by an Else-Neumann-Stipendium (http://www.fu-berlin.de/sites/promovieren/drs/nachwuchs/nachwuchs/nafoeg.html), Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst (DAAD) and botconsult GmbH at different stages of data acquisition. We thank Tobias Grass, Joana Bergmann and Franziska Weber (Freie Universität Berlin) for help with data collection in the field and in the greenhouse. Nicole Schmandt, Federico Luebert, Juliana Chacón and Dietmar Quant (Universität Bonn) provided help in the molecular laboratory and the edition of the molecular dataset. We furthermore thank Markus Ackermann (Koblenz) for providing photographs, Philipp Klein (Berlin) for editing the video and Katy Jones (Berlin) for helpful comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. Rafael Acuña has been supported by the ALECOSTA scholarship program. Coverage of the article processing charge by the German Research Foundation via the Open Access Publication Fund of the Freie Universität Berlin is gratefully acknowledged.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Seasonality and shift in age-specific malaria prevalence and incidence in Binko and Carrière villages close to the lake in Selingué, Mali

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission in Mali is seasonal and peaks at the end of the rainy season in October. This study assessed the seasonal variations in the epidemiology of malaria among children under 10 years of age living in two villages in Selingué: Carrière, located along the Sankarani River but distant from the hydroelectric dam, and Binko, near irrigated rice fields, close to the dam. The aim of this study was to provide baseline data, seasonal pattern and age distribution of malaria incidence in two sites situated close to a lake in Selingué. METHODS: Geographically, Selingué area is located in the basin of Sakanrani and belongs to the district of Yanfolila in the third administrative region of Mali, Sikasso. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in October 2010 (end of transmission season) and in July 2011 (beginning of transmission season) to determine the point prevalence of asymptomatic parasitaemia, and anaemia among the children. Cumulative incidence of malaria per month was determined in a cohort of 549 children through active and passive case detection from November 2010 through October 2011. The number of clinical episodes per year was determined among the children in the cohort. Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for malaria. RESULTS: The prevalence of malaria parasitaemia varied significantly between villages with a strong seasonality in Carrière (52.0–18.9 % in October 2010 and July 2011, respectively) compared with Binko (29.8–23.8 % in October 2010 and July 2011, respectively). Children 6–9 years old were at least twice more likely to carry parasites than children up to 5 years old. For malaria incidence, 64.8–71.9 % of all children experienced at least one episode of clinical malaria in Binko and Carrière, respectively. The peak incidence was observed between August and October (end of the rainy season), but the incidence remained high until December. Surprisingly, the risk of clinical malaria was two- to nine-fold higher among children 5–9 years old compared to younger children. CONCLUSIONS: A shift in the peak of clinical episodes from children under 5–9 years of age calls for expanding control interventions, such as seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis targeting the peak transmission months

Course of serum amyloid A (SAA) plasma concentrations in horses undergoing surgery for injuries penetrating synovial structures, an observational clinical study

Abstract Background Injuries penetrating synovial structures are common in equine practice and often result in septic synovitis. Significantly increased plasma levels of serum amyloid A (SAA) have been found in various infectious conditions in horses including wounds and septic arthritis. Plasma SAA levels were found to decrease rapidly once the infectious stimulus was eliminated. The purpose of the current study was to investigate the usefulness of serial measurements of plasma SAA as a monitoring tool for the response to treatment of horses presented with injuries penetrating synovial structures. In the current study plasma SAA concentrations were measured every 48 hours (h) during the course of treatment. Results A total of 19 horses with a wound penetrating a synovial structure were included in the current study. Horses in Group 1 (n = 12) (injuries older than 24 h) only needed one surgical intervention. Patients in this group had significantly lower median plasma SAA levels (P = 0.001) between 48 h (median 776 mg/L) and 96 h (median 202 mg/L) after surgery. A significant decrease (P = 0.004) in plasma SAA levels was also observed between 96 h after surgery (median 270 mg/L) and 6 days (d) after surgery (median 3 mg/L). Four horses (Group 2) required more than one surgical intervention. In contrast to Group 1 patients in Group 2 had either very high initial plasma concentrations (3378 mg/L), an increase or persistently high concentrations of plasma SAA after the first surgery (median 2525 mg/L). A small group of patients (n = 3) (Group 3) were admitted less than 24 h after sustaining a wound. In this group low SAA values at admission (median 23 mg/L) and peak concentrations at 48 h after surgery (median 1016 mg/L) were observed followed by a decrease in plasma SAA concentration over time. Conclusions A decrease in plasma SAA concentrations between two consecutive time points could be associated with positive response to treatment in the current study. Therefore, serial measurements of plasma SAA could potentially be used as an additional inexpensive, quick and easy tool for monitoring the treatment response in otherwise healthy horses presented with injuries penetrating synovial structures. However further studies will be necessary to ascertain its clinical utility