From regional pulse vaccination to global disease eradication: insights from a mathematical model of Poliomyelitis

Mass-vaccination campaigns are an important strategy in the global fight against poliomyelitis and measles. The large-scale logistics required for these mass immunisation campaigns magnifies the need for research into the effectiveness and optimal deployment of pulse vaccination. In order to better understand this control strategy, we propose a mathematical model accounting for the disease dynamics in connected regions, incorporating seasonality, environmental reservoirs and independent periodic pulse vaccination schedules in each region. The effective reproduction number, $R_e$, is defined and proved to be a global threshold for persistence of the disease. Analytical and numerical calculations show the importance of synchronising the pulse vaccinations in connected regions and the timing of the pulses with respect to the pathogen circulation seasonality. Our results indicate that it may be crucial for mass-vaccination programs, such as national immunisation days, to be synchronised across different regions. In addition, simulations show that a migration imbalance can increase $R_e$ and alter how pulse vaccination should be optimally distributed among the patches, similar to results found with constant-rate vaccination. Furthermore, contrary to the case of constant-rate vaccination, the fraction of environmental transmission affects the value of $R_e$ when pulse vaccination is present.Comment: Added section 6.1, made other revisions, changed titl

Elevated hemostasis markers after pneumonia increases one-year risk of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths

Background: Acceleration of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease, may increase long-term mortality after community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), but underlying mechanisms are unknown. Persistence of the prothrombotic state that occurs during an acute infection may increase risk of subsequent atherothrombosis in patients with pre-existing cardiovascular disease and increase subsequent risk of death. We hypothesized that circulating hemostasis markers activated during CAP persist at hospital discharge, when patients appear to have recovered clinically, and are associated with higher mortality, particularly due to cardiovascular causes. Methods: In a cohort of survivors of CAP hospitalization from 28 US sites, we measured D-Dimer, thrombin-antithrombin complexes [TAT], Factor IX, antithrombin, and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 at hospital discharge, and determined 1-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results: Of 893 subjects, most did not have severe pneumonia (70.6% never developed severe sepsis) and only 13.4% required intensive care unit admission. At discharge, 88.4% of subjects had normal vital signs and appeared to have clinically recovered. D-dimer and TAT levels were elevated at discharge in 78.8% and 30.1% of all subjects, and in 51.3% and 25.3% of those without severe sepsis. Higher D-dimer and TAT levels were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (range of hazard ratios were 1.66-1.17, p = 0.0001 and 1.46-1.04, p = 0.001 after adjusting for demographics and comorbid illnesses) and cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.009 and 0.003 in competing risk analyses). Conclusions: Elevations of TAT and D-dimer levels are common at hospital discharge in patients who appeared to have recovered clinically from pneumonia and are associated with higher risk of subsequent deaths, particularly due to cardiovascular disease. © 2011 Yende et al

A bi-directional relationship between obesity and health-related quality of life : evidence from the longitudinal AusDiab study

Objective: To assess the prospective relationship between obesity and health-related quality of life, including a novel assessment of the impact of health-related quality of life on weight gain.Design and setting: Longitudinal, national, population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, with surveys conducted in 1999/2000 and 2004/2005.Participants: A total of 5985 men and women aged 25 years at study entry.Main outcome measure(s): At both time points, height, weight and waist circumference were measured and self-report data on health-related quality of life from the SF-36 questionnaire were obtained. Cross-sectional and bi-directional, prospective associations between obesity categories and health-related quality of life were assessed.Results: Higher body mass index (BMI) at baseline was associated with deterioration in health-related quality of life over 5 years for seven of the eight health-related quality of life domains in women (all P0.01, with the exception of mental health, P&gt;0.05), and six out of eight in men (all P&lt;0.05, with the exception of role-emotional, P=0.055, and mental health, P&gt;0.05). Each of the quality-of-life domains related to mental health as well as the mental component summary were inversely associated with BMI change (all P&lt;0.0001 for women and P0.01 for men), with the exception of vitality, which was significant in women only (P=0.008). For the physical domains, change in BMI was inversely associated with baseline general health in women only (P=0.023).Conclusions: Obesity was associated with a deterioration in health-related quality of life (including both physical and mental health domains) in this cohort of Australian adults followed over 5 years. Health-related quality of life was also a predictor of weight gain over 5 years, indicating a bi-directional association between obesity and health-related quality of life. The identification of those with poor health-related quality of life may be important in assessing the risk of future weight gain, and a focus on health-related quality of life may be beneficial in weight management strategies.<br /

Tailoring the oxidation state of cobalt through halide functionality in sol-gel silica

The functionality or oxidation state of cobalt within a silica matrix can be tailored through the use of cationic surfactants and their halide counter ions during the sol-gel synthesis. Simply by adding surfactant we could significantly increase the amount of cobalt existing as Co3O4 within the silica from 44% to 77%, without varying the cobalt precursor concentration. However, once the surfactant to cobalt ratio exceeded 1, further addition resulted in an inhibitory mechanism whereby the altered pyrolysis of the surfactant decreased Co3O4 production. These findings have significant implications for the production of cobalt/silica composites where maximizing the functional Co3O4 phase remains the goal for a broad range of catalytic, sensing and materials applications

Special thematic section on "rethinking health and social justice activism in changing times": Queer solidarities: New activisms erupting at the intersection of structural precarity and radical misrecognition

This article investigates the relationship between exposure to structural injustice, experiences of social discrimination, psychological well being, physical health, and engagement in activist solidarities for a large, racially diverse and inclusive sample of 5,860 LGBTQ/Gender Expansive youth in the United States. Through a participatory action research design and a national survey created by an intergenerational research collective, the “What’s Your Issue?” survey data are used to explore the relationships between injustice, discrimination and activism; to develop an analysis of how race and gender affect young people’s vulnerabilities to State violence (in housing, schools and by the police), and their trajectories to activism, and to amplify a range of “intimate activisms” engaged by LGBTQ/GE youth with powerful adults outside their community, and with often marginalized peers within. The essay ends with a theoretical appreciation of misrecognition as structural violence; activism as a racialized and gendered response to injustice, and an elaborated archive of “intimate activisms” engaged with dominant actors and within community, by LGBTQ/GE youth who have been exiled from home, school, state protection and/or community and embody, nevertheless, “willful subjectivities”

Survival in Southern European patients waitlisted for kidney transplant after graft failure: A competing risk analysis

Background Whether patients waitlisted for a second transplant after failure of a previous kidney graft have higher mortality than transplant-näive waitlisted patients is uncertain. Methods We assessed the relationship between a failed transplant and mortality in 3851 adult KT candidates, listed between 1984–2012, using a competing risk analysis in the total population and in a propensity score-matched cohort. Mortality was also modeled by inverse probability weighting (IPTW) competing risk regression. Results At waitlist entry 225 (5.8%) patients had experienced transplant failure. All-cause mortality was higher in the post-graft failure group (16% vs. 11%; P = 0.033). Most deaths occurred within three years after listing. Cardiovascular disease was the leading cause of death (25.3%), followed by infections (19.3%). Multivariate competing risk regression showed that prior transplant failure was associated with a 1.5-fold increased risk of mortality (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–2.2). After propensity score matching (1:5), the competing risk regression model revealed a subhazard ratio (SHR) of 1.6 (95% CI, 1.01–2.5). A similar mortality risk was observed after the IPTW analysis (SHR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.6). Conclusions Previous transplant failure is associated with increased mortality among KT candidates after relisting. This information is important in daily clinical practice when assessing relisted patients for a retransplant.This study was supported in part by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) (grant ICI14/00016) from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III co-funded by the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional±FEDER, RETICS (REDINREN RD16/0009/0006, RD16/0009/0031

Formalization of the classification pattern: Survey of classification modeling in information systems engineering

Formalization is becoming more common in all stages of the development of information systems, as a better understanding of its benefits emerges. Classification systems are ubiquitous, no more so than in domain modeling. The classification pattern that underlies these systems provides a good case study of the move towards formalization in part because it illustrates some of the barriers to formalization; including the formal complexity of the pattern and the ontological issues surrounding the ‘one and the many’. Powersets are a way of characterizing the (complex) formal structure of the classification pattern and their formalization has been extensively studied in mathematics since Cantor’s work in the late 19th century. One can use this formalization to develop a useful benchmark. There are various communities within Information Systems Engineering (ISE) that are gradually working towards a formalization of the classification pattern. However, for most of these communities this work is incomplete, in that they have not yet arrived at a solution with the expressiveness of the powerset benchmark. This contrasts with the early smooth adoption of powerset by other Information Systems communities to, for example, formalize relations. One way of understanding the varying rates of adoption is recognizing that the different communities have different historical baggage. Many conceptual modeling communities emerged from work done on database design and this creates hurdles to the adoption of the high level of expressiveness of powersets. Another relevant factor is that these communities also often feel, particularly in the case of domain modeling, a responsibility to explain the semantics of whatever formal structures they adopt. This paper aims to make sense of the formalization of the classification pattern in ISE and surveys its history through the literature; starting from the relevant theoretical works of the mathematical literature and gradually shifting focus to the ISE literature. The literature survey follows the evolution of ISE’s understanding of how to formalize the classification pattern. The various proposals are assessed using the classical example of classification; the Linnaean taxonomy formalized using powersets as a benchmark for formal expressiveness. The broad conclusion of the survey is that (1) the ISE community is currently in the early stages of the process of understanding how to formalize the classification pattern, particularly in the requirements for expressiveness exemplified by powersets and (2) that there is an opportunity to intervene and speed up the process of adoption by clarifying this expressiveness. Given the central place that the classification pattern has in domain modeling, this intervention has the potential to lead to significant improvements.The UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant EP/K009923/1)

Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model

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The evolution of sex-specific virulence in infectious diseases

Fatality rates of infectious diseases are often higher in men than women. Although this difference is often attributed to a stronger immune response in women, we show that differences in the transmission routes that the sexes provide can result in evolution favouring pathogens with sex-specific virulence. Because women can transmit pathogens during pregnancy, birth or breast-feeding, pathogens adapt, evolving lower virulence in women. This can resolve the long-standing puzzle on progression from Human T-cell Lymphotropic Virus Type 1 (HTLV-1) infection to lethal Adult T-cell Leukaemia (ATL); a progression that is more likely in Japanese men than women, while it is equally likely in Caribbean women and men. We argue that breastfeeding, being more prolonged in Japan than in the Caribbean, may have driven the difference in virulence between the two populations. Our finding signifies the importance of investigating the differences in genetic expression profile of pathogens in males and females

Heritable symbionts in a world of varying temperature

Heritable microbes represent an important component of the biology, ecology and evolution of many plants, animals and fungi, acting as both parasites and partners. In this review, we examine how heritable symbiont–host interactions may alter host thermal tolerance, and how the dynamics of these interactions may more generally be altered by thermal environment. Obligate symbionts, those required by their host, are considered to represent a thermally sensitive weak point for their host, associated with accumulation of deleterious mutations. As such, these symbionts may represent an important determinant of host thermal envelope and spatial distribution. We then examine the varied relationship between thermal environment and the frequency of facultative symbionts that provide ecologically contingent benefits or act as parasites. We note that some facultative symbionts directly alter host thermotolerance. We outline how thermal environment will alter the benefits/costs of infection more widely, and additionally modulate vertical transmission efficiency. Multiple patterns are observed, with symbionts being cold sensitive in some species and heat sensitive in others, with varying and non-coincident thresholds at which phenotype and transmission are ablated. Nevertheless, it is clear that studies aiming to predict ecological and evolutionary dynamics of symbiont–host interactions need to examine the interaction across a range of thermal environments. Finally, we discuss the importance of thermal sensitivity in predicting the success/failure of symbionts to spread into novel species following natural/engineered introduction