Calibration and Validation of A Shared space Model: A Case Study

Shared space is an innovative streetscape design that seeks minimum separation between vehicle traffic and pedestrians. Urban design is moving toward space sharing as a means of increasing the community texture of street surroundings. Its unique features aim to balance priorities and allow cars and pedestrians to coexist harmoniously without the need to dictate behavior. There is, however, a need for a simulation tool to model future shared space schemes and to help judge whether they might represent suitable alternatives to traditional street layouts. This paper builds on the authors’ previously published work in which a shared space microscopic mixed traffic model based on the social force model (SFM) was presented, calibrated, and evaluated with data from the shared space link typology of New Road in Brighton, United Kingdom. Here, the goal is to explore the transferability of the authors’ model to a similar shared space typology and investigate the effect of flow and ratio of traffic modes. Data recorded from the shared space scheme of Exhibition Road, London, were collected and analyzed. The flow and speed of cars and segregation between pedestrians and cars are greater on Exhibition Road than on New Road. The rule-based SFM for shared space modeling is calibrated and validated with the real data. On the basis of the results, it can be concluded that shared space schemes are context dependent and that factors such as the infrastructural design of the environment and the flow and speed of pedestrians and vehicles affect the willingness to share space

Modelling shared space users via rule-based social force model

The promotion of space sharing in order to raise the quality of community living and safety of street surroundings is increasingly accepted feature of modern urban design. In this context, the development of a shared space simulation tool is essential in helping determine whether particular shared space schemes are suitable alternatives to traditional street layouts. A simulation tool that enables urban designers to visualise pedestrians and cars trajectories, extract flow and density relation in a new shared space design, achieve solutions for optimal design features before implementation, and help getting the design closer to the system optimal. This paper presents a three-layered microscopic mathematical model which is capable of representing the behaviour of pedestrians and vehicles in shared space layouts and it is implemented in a traffic simulation tool. The top layer calculates route maps based on static obstacles in the environment. It plans the shortest path towards agents’ respective destinations by generating one or more intermediate targets. In the second layer, the Social Force Model (SFM) is modified and extended for mixed traffic to produce feasible trajectories. Since car movements are not as flexible as pedestrian movements, velocity angle constraints are included for cars. The conflicts described in the third layer are resolved by rule-based constraints for shared space users. An optimisation algorithm is applied to determine the interaction parameters of the force-based model for shared space users using empirical data. This new three-layer microscopic model can be used to simulate shared space environments and assess, for example, new street designs

Calibration and Validation of a Shared Space Model Case Study

Shared space is an innovative streetscape design that seeks minimum separation between vehicle traffic and pedestrians. Urban design is moving toward space sharing as a means of increasing the community texture of street surroundings. Its unique features aim to balance priorities and allow cars and pedestrians to coexist harmoniously without the need to dictate behavior. There is, however, a need for a simulation tool to model future shared space schemes and to help judge whether they might represent suitable alternatives to traditional street layouts. This paper builds on the authors’ previously published work in which a shared space microscopic mixed traffic model based on the social force model (SFM) was presented, calibrated, and evaluated with data from the shared space link typology of New Road in Brighton, United Kingdom. Here, the goal is to explore the transferability of the authors’ model to a similar shared space typology and investigate the effect of flow and ratio of traffic modes. Data recorded from the shared space scheme of Exhibition Road, London, were collected and analyzed. The flow and speed of cars and segregation between pedestrians and cars are greater on Exhibition Road than on New Road. The rule-based SFM for shared space modeling is calibrated and validated with the real data. On the basis of the results, it can be concluded that shared space schemes are context dependent and that factors such as the infrastructural design of the environment and the flow and speed of pedestrians and vehicles affect the willingness to share space

Finding legitimacy for the role of budget impact in drug reimbursement decisions

OBJECTIVES: Research has shown that effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and severity of illness each play a role in drug reimbursement decisions. However, the role of budget impact in such decisions is less obvious. Policy makers almost always demand a budget impact estimate yet seem reluctant to formally include budget impact as a rationing criterion. Health economists even reject budget impact as a legitimate criterion. For these reasons, it is important to examine its use in rationing decisions, and rationales underlying its use. METHODS: We trace several rationales supporting the use of budget impact through a literature review, supplemented by semistructured interviews with eleven key stakeholders involved in drug reimbursement decisions in the Netherlands. RESULTS: Budget impact arguments are used in certain instances, although policy makers appear uncomfortable with its use because well described rationales still are lacking. In addition, we identify the following rationales to support budget impact as a rationing criterion: opportunity costs, loss aversion, uncertainty and equal opportunity. CONCLUSIONS: Budget impact plays a role in drug reimbursement decisions and has rationales to support its use. However, policy makers do not easily admit that they consider budget impact and are even reluctant to explicitly use budget impact as a formal criterion. A debate would strengthen the theoretical foundation of budget impact a

Craniometric variation among Brazilian and Scottish populations: a physical anthropology approach

The present investigation intended to compare the craniometric variations of two samples of different nationalities (Brazilian and Scottish). Materials and methods: The Brazilian sample consisted of 100 modern complete skulls, including 53 female skulls and 47 male skulls, and the Scottish sample consisted of 100 historical skulls (61 males, 39 females) and 36 mandibles (24 males, 12 females). The cranial measurement protocol was composed of 40 measurements, 11 bilateral and 29 unilateral, and the measurement protocol of the mandible was composed of 15 measurements, with six that were bilateral and nine that were unique. The comparative analysis of the metric variability between the two samples was performed using the means and medians analysis, the t-test, the Wilcoxon test, and the coefficient of variance, with a significance level of 5%. Results: The results showed that, among the 72 analysed variables, 44 measurements (61.11%) presented statistical differences between the samples. The Scottish skull tends to have a cranial length (GOL diff=5.53), breadth (XCB diff=3.78) and height (NPH diff=5.33) greater than the Brazilian skulls, and the Scottish mandibles tend to show a higher mandibular ramus height (MRH diff=9.25), a higher mandibular body height (HMB diff=6.37) and a larger bigonial breadth (BGB diff=5.29) than the Brazilians. The discriminant analysis of the 51 cranial measurements and 21 mandibular measurements showed a variation of the percentage of accuracy between 46.3- 83.8%. Conclusion: The metric analysis demonstrated that there is variability between the two samples studied (61.11%), but a concrete cause cannot be determined considering the multifactorial aspects of the variations of form and size