Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Spatio-temporal Models of Lymphangiogenesis in Wound Healing

Several studies suggest that one possible cause of impaired wound healing is failed or insufficient lymphangiogenesis, that is the formation of new lymphatic capillaries. Although many mathematical models have been developed to describe the formation of blood capillaries (angiogenesis), very few have been proposed for the regeneration of the lymphatic network. Lymphangiogenesis is a markedly different process from angiogenesis, occurring at different times and in response to different chemical stimuli. Two main hypotheses have been proposed: 1) lymphatic capillaries sprout from existing interrupted ones at the edge of the wound in analogy to the blood angiogenesis case; 2) lymphatic endothelial cells first pool in the wound region following the lymph flow and then, once sufficiently populated, start to form a network. Here we present two PDE models describing lymphangiogenesis according to these two different hypotheses. Further, we include the effect of advection due to interstitial flow and lymph flow coming from open capillaries. The variables represent different cell densities and growth factor concentrations, and where possible the parameters are estimated from biological data. The models are then solved numerically and the results are compared with the available biological literature.Comment: 29 pages, 9 Figures, 6 Tables (39 figure files in total

Aerodynamics of the Hovering Hummingbird

Despite profound musculoskeletal differences, hummingbirds (Trochilidae) are widely thought to employ aerodynamic mechanisms similar to those used by insects. The kinematic symmetry of the hummingbird upstroke and downstroke has led to the assumption that these halves of the wingbeat cycle contribute equally to weight support during hovering, as exhibited by insects of similar size. This assumption has been applied, either explicitly or implicitly, in widely used aerodynamic models, and in a variety of empirical tests. Here we provide measurements of the wake of hovering rufous hummingbirds (Selasphorus rufus) obtained with digital particle image velocimetry that show force asymmetry: hummingbirds produce 75% of their weight support during the downstroke and only 25% during the upstroke. Some of this asymmetry is probably due to inversion of their cambered wings during upstroke. The wake of hummingbird wings also reveals evidence of leading-edge vortices created during the downstroke, indicating that they may operate at Reynolds numbers sufficiently low to exploit a key mechanism typical of insect hovering. Hummingbird hovering approaches that of insects, yet remains distinct because of effects resulting from an inherently dissimilar—avian—body plan

Percutaneous versus surgical strategy for tracheostomy: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of perioperative and postoperative complications

Background: Tracheostomy is one of the most frequently performed procedures in intensive care medicine. The two main approaches to form a tracheostoma are the open surgical tracheotomy (ST) and the interventional strategy of percutaneous dilatational tracheotomy (PDT). It is particularly important to the critically ill patients that both procedures are performed with high success rates and low complication frequencies. Therefore, the aim of this systematic review is to summarize and analyze existing and relevant evidence for peri- and postoperative parameters of safety. Methods/design: A systematic literature search will be conducted in The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, LILACS, and Embase to identify all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing peri- and postoperative complications between the two strategies and to define the strategy with the lower risk of potentially life-threatening events. A priori defined data will be extracted from included studies, and methodological quality will be assessed according to the recommendations of the Cochrane Collaboration. Discussion: The findings of this systematic review with proportional meta-analysis will help to identify the strategy with the lowest frequency of potentially life-threatening events. This may influence daily practice, and the data may be implemented in treatment guidelines or serve as the basis for planning further randomized controlled trials. Considering the critical health of these patients, they will particularly benefit from evidence-based treatment. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD4201502196

25-hydroxyvitamin D3 and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 exert distinct effects on human skeletal muscle function and gene expression

Age-associated decline in muscle function represents a significant public health burden. Vitamin D-deficiency is also prevalent in aging subjects, and has been linked to loss of muscle mass and strength (sarcopenia), but the precise role of specific vitamin D metabolites in determining muscle phenotype and function is still unclear. To address this we quantified serum concentrations of multiple vitamin D metabolites, and assessed the impact of these metabolites on body composition/muscle function parameters, and muscle biopsy gene expression in a retrospective study of a cohort of healthy volunteers. Active serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (1α,25(OH)2D3), but not inactive 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25OHD3), correlated positively with measures of lower limb strength including power (rho = 0.42, p = 0.02), velocity (Vmax, rho = 0.40, p = 0.02) and jump height (rho = 0.36, p = 0.04). Lean mass correlated positively with 1α,25(OH)2D3 (rho = 0.47, p = 0.02), in women. Serum 25OHD3 and inactive 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (24,25(OH)2D3) had an inverse relationship with body fat (rho = -0.30, p = 0.02 and rho = -0.33, p = 0.01, respectively). Serum 25OHD3 and 24,25(OH)2D3 were also correlated with urinary steroid metabolites, suggesting a link with glucocorticoid metabolism. PCR array analysis of 92 muscle genes identified vitamin D receptor (VDR) mRNA in all muscle biopsies, with this expression being negatively correlated with serum 25OHD3, and Vmax, and positively correlated with fat mass. Of the other 91 muscle genes analysed by PCR array, 24 were positively correlated with 25OHD3, but only 4 were correlated with active 1α,25(OH)2D3. These data show that although 25OHD3 has potent actions on muscle gene expression, the circulating concentrations of this metabolite are more closely linked to body fat mass, suggesting that 25OHD3 can influence muscle function via indirect effects on adipose tissue. By contrast, serum 1α,25(OH)2D3 has limited effects on muscle gene expression, but is associated with increased muscle strength and lean mass in women. These pleiotropic effects of the vitamin D ‘metabolome’ on muscle function indicate that future supplementation studies should not be restricted to conventional analysis of the major circulating form of vitamin D, 25OHD3

Bacterial endosymbiont Cardinium cSfur genome sequence provides insights for understanding the symbiotic relationship in Sogatella furcifera host

Background: Sogatella furcifera is a migratory pest that damages rice plants and causes severe economic losses. Due to its ability to annually migrate long distances, S.furcifera has emerged as a major pest of rice in several Asian countries. Symbiotic relationships of inherited bacteria with terrestrial arthropods have significant implications. The genus Cardinium is present in many types of arthropods, where it influences some host characteristics. We present a report of a newly # identified strain of the bacterial endosymbiont Cardinium cSfur in S. furcifera. Result: From the whole genome of S. furcifera previously sequenced by our laboratory, we assembled the whole genome sequence of Cardinium cSfur. The sequence comprised 1,103,593 bp with a GC content of 39.2%. The phylogenetic tree of the Bacteroides phylum to which Cardinium cSfur belongs suggests that Cardinium cSfur is closely related to the other strains (Cardinium cBtQ1 and cEper1) that are members of the Amoebophilaceae family. Genome comparison between the host-dependent endosymbiont including Cardinium cSfur and freeliving bacteria revealed that the endosymbiont has a smaller genome size and lower GC content, and has lost some genes related to metabolism because of its special environment, which is similar to the genome pattern observed in other insect symbionts. Cardinium cSfur has limited metabolic capability, which makes it less contributive to metabolic and biosynthetic processes in its host. From our findings, we inferred that, to compensate for its limited metabolic capability, Cardinium cSfur harbors a relatively high proportion of transport proteins, which might act as the hub between it and its host. With its acquisition of the whole operon related to biotin synthesis and glycolysis related genes through HGT event, Cardinium cSfur seems to be undergoing changes while establishing a symbiotic relationship with its host. Conclusion: A novel bacterial endosymbiont strain (Cardinium cSfur) has been discovered. A genomic analysis of the endosymbiont in S. furcifera suggests that its genome has undergone certain changes to facilitate its settlement in the host. The envisaged potential reproduction manipulative ability of the new endosymbiont strain in its S. furcifera host has vital implications in designing eco-friendly approaches to combat the insect pest

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change

Prevalence of Clostridium difficile colonization among healthcare workers

BackgroundClostridium difficile infection (CDI) has increased to epidemic proportions in recent years. The carriage of C. difficile among healthy adults and hospital inpatients has been established. We sought to determine whether C. difficile colonization exists among healthcare workers (HCWs) in our setting.MethodsA point prevalence study of stool colonization with C. difficile among doctors, nurses and allied health staff at a large regional teaching hospital in Geelong, Victoria. All participants completed a short questionnaire and all stool specimens were tested by Techlab&reg; C.diff Quik Check enzyme immunoassay followed by enrichment culture.ResultsAmong 128 healthcare workers, 77% were female, of mean age 43 years, and the majority were nursing staff (73%). Nineteen HCWs (15%) reported diarrhoea, and 12 (9%) had taken antibiotics in the previous six weeks. Over 40% of participants reported having contact with a patient with known or suspected CDI in the 6 weeks before the stool was collected. C. difficile was not isolated from the stool of any participants.ConclusionAlthough HCWs are at risk of asymptomatic carriage and could act as a reservoir for transmission in the hospital environment, with the use of a screening test and culture we were unable to identify C. difficile in the stool of our participants in a non-outbreak setting. This may reflect potential colonization resistance of the gut microbiota, or the success of infection prevention strategies at our institution.<br /

Preventing crime in cooperation with the mental health care profession

Although major mental disorders do not have a central position in many criminological theories, there seems to be an evident relationship between these disorders and criminal behavior. In daily practice police officers and mental health care workers work jointly to prevent nuisance and crime and to keep the city livable. Examining the situations where the criminal justice system and mental health institutes are jointly involved to prevent crime, some pitfalls emerge that seem to threaten successful cooperation. There appear to be unrealistic expectations of the possibility to reduce the risk of reoffending by means of treatment and of the possibility to predict which offender poses a risk to society. Another complexity is the fact that both parties work from different backgrounds and pursue different goals. The way society and the criminal justice system deal with persons who are assumed to be a risk to the community because of a mental disorder demands a further investigation from a criminological perspective

The perceptions of social responsibility for community resilience to flooding: the impact of past experience, age, gender and ethnicity

Community resilience to flooding depends, to a large extent, on the participation of community members to take more responsibility for enhancing their own resilience. The perception of social responsibility (SR) which is argued to be one of the antecedents influencing individual’s willingness to undertake resilient behaviours can significantly contribute to community resilience through individual and collective actions. Understanding of factors influencing the perceptions of SR of individuals within community might help with developing strategies to increase the perceptions of SR. This research explores perceptions of SR in relation to flooding for householders and local businesses and establishes their relationships with experience of flooding and demographic factors of age, gender and ethnicity. The data were obtained via a questionnaire survey of three communities in Birmingham and one community in South East London, UK, three with experience of flooding and one without. A total of 414 responses were received and used in the multiple regression analysis. The analysis identified ‘experience of flooding’, ‘age’ and ‘South Asian’ ethnic group as significant variables, suggesting that older individuals from South Asian ethnic groups with previous experience of flooding are likely to be more socially responsible than others without these attributes