Probabilistic inference for determining options in reinforcement learning

Tasks that require many sequential decisions or complex solutions are hard to solve using conventional reinforcement learning algorithms. Based on the semi Markov decision process setting (SMDP) and the option framework, we propose a model which aims to alleviate these concerns. Instead of learning a single monolithic policy, the agent learns a set of simpler sub-policies as well as the initiation and termination probabilities for each of those sub-policies. While existing option learning algorithms frequently require manual specification of components such as the sub-policies, we present an algorithm which infers all relevant components of the option framework from data. Furthermore, the proposed approach is based on parametric option representations and works well in combination with current policy search methods, which are particularly well suited for continuous real-world tasks. We present results on SMDPs with discrete as well as continuous state-action spaces. The results show that the presented algorithm can combine simple sub-policies to solve complex tasks and can improve learning performance on simpler tasks

Observation of a J^PC = 1-+ exotic resonance in diffractive dissociation of 190 GeV/c pi- into pi- pi- pi+

The COMPASS experiment at the CERN SPS has studied the diffractive dissociation of negative pions into the pi- pi- pi+ final state using a 190 GeV/c pion beam hitting a lead target. A partial wave analysis has been performed on a sample of 420000 events taken at values of the squared 4-momentum transfer t' between 0.1 and 1 GeV^2/c^2. The well-known resonances a1(1260), a2(1320), and pi2(1670) are clearly observed. In addition, the data show a significant natural parity exchange production of a resonance with spin-exotic quantum numbers J^PC = 1-+ at 1.66 GeV/c^2 decaying to rho pi. The resonant nature of this wave is evident from the mass-dependent phase differences to the J^PC = 2-+ and 1++ waves. From a mass-dependent fit a resonance mass of 1660 +- 10+0-64 MeV/c^2 and a width of 269+-21+42-64 MeV/c^2 is deduced.Comment: 7 page, 3 figures; version 2 gives some more details, data unchanged; version 3 updated authors, text shortened, data unchange

Analyzing Childlessness

Childlessness has been on the rise in many European societies. In Germany, the UK, Austria, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, childlessness has increased starting with the 1950s cohorts. In these countries, about 20 % of the women born around 1965 will remain childless. In southern Europe and the former state-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the rise in levels of childlessness is a more recent phenomenon. Yet among younger cohorts in these countries, childlessness has reached levels of 15 % or higher. In this introductory chapter, we summarize the long-term trends in childlessness and discuss the differences between European countries in the prevalence of childlessness. We also outline the structure and the logic of this volume

Genetic aspects of dental disorders

The document attached has been archived with permission from the Australian Dental Association. An external link to the publisher’s copy is included.This paper reviews past and present applications of quantitative and molecular genetics to dental disorders. Examples are given relating to craniofacial development (including malocclusion), oral supporting tissues (including periodontal diseases) and dental hard tissues (including defects of enamel and dentine as well as dental caries). Future developments and applications to clinical dentistry are discussed. Early investigations confirmed genetic bases to dental caries, periodontal diseases and malocclusion, but research findings have had little impact on clinical practice. The complex multifactorial aetiologies of these conditions, together with methodological problems, have limited progress until recently. Present studies are clarifying previously unrecognized genetic and phenotypic heterogeneities and attempting to unravel the complex interactions between genes and environment by applying new statistical modelling approaches to twin and family data. linkage studies using highly polymorphic DNA markers are providing a means of locating candidate genes, including quantitative trait loci (QTL). In future, as knowledge increases: it should be possible to implement preventive strategies for those genetically-predisposed individuals who are identified-predisposed individuals who are identified to be at risk.Grant C. Townsend, Michael J. Aldred and P. Mark Bartol

Lateral distribution of muons in IceCube cosmic ray events

In cosmic ray air showers, the muon lateral separation from the center of the shower is a measure of the transverse momentum that the muon parent acquired in the cosmic ray interaction. IceCube has observed cosmic ray interactions that produce muons laterally separated by up to 400 m from the shower core, a factor of 6 larger distance than previous measurements. These muons originate in high p(T) (>2 GeV/c) interactions from the incident cosmic ray, or high-energy secondary interactions. The separation distribution shows a transition to a power law at large values, indicating the presence of a hard p(T) component that can be described by perturbative quantum chromodynamics. However, the rates and the zenith angle distributions of these events are not well reproduced with the cosmic ray models tested here, even those that include charm interactions. This discrepancy may be explained by a larger fraction of kaons and charmed particles than is currently incorporated in the simulations.R. Abbasi ... G. C. Hill ... et al. (IceCube Collaboration

Landslide susceptibility mapping at VAZ watershed (Iran) using an artificial neural network model: a comparison between multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basic function (RBF) algorithms

Landslide susceptibility and hazard assessments are the most important steps in landslide risk mapping. The main objective of this study was to investigate and compare the results of two artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms, i.e., multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basic function (RBF) for spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility in Vaz Watershed, Iran. At first, landslide locations were identified by aerial photographs and field surveys, and a total of 136 landside locations were constructed from various sources. Then the landslide inventory map was randomly split into a training dataset 70 % (95 landslide locations) for training the ANN model and the remaining 30 % (41 landslides locations) was used for validation purpose. Nine landslide conditioning factors such as slope, slope aspect, altitude, land use, lithology, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, and rainfall were constructed in geographical information system. In this study, both MLP and RBF algorithms were used in artificial neural network model. The results showed that MLP with Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno learning algorithm is more efficient than RBF in landslide susceptibility mapping for the study area. Finally the landslide susceptibility maps were validated using the validation data (i.e., 30 % landslide location data that was not used during the model construction) using area under the curve (AUC) method. The success rate curve showed that the area under the curve for RBF and MLP was 0.9085 (90.85 %) and 0.9193 (91.93 %) accuracy, respectively. Similarly, the validation result showed that the area under the curve for MLP and RBF models were 0.881 (88.1 %) and 0.8724 (87.24 %), respectively. The results of this study showed that landslide susceptibility mapping in the Vaz Watershed of Iran using the ANN approach is viable and can be used for land use planning

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta