Evidence-based decision support for pediatric rheumatology reduces diagnostic errors.

BACKGROUND: The number of trained specialists world-wide is insufficient to serve all children with pediatric rheumatologic disorders, even in the countries with robust medical resources. We evaluated the potential of diagnostic decision support software (DDSS) to alleviate this shortage by assessing the ability of such software to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-specialists. METHODS: Using vignettes of actual clinical cases, clinician testers generated a differential diagnosis before and after using diagnostic decision support software. The evaluation used the SimulConsult® DDSS tool, based on Bayesian pattern matching with temporal onset of each finding in each disease. The tool covered 5405 diseases (averaging 22 findings per disease). Rheumatology content in the database was developed using both primary references and textbooks. The frequency, timing, age of onset and age of disappearance of findings, as well as their incidence, treatability, and heritability were taken into account in order to guide diagnostic decision making. These capabilities allowed key information such as pertinent negatives and evolution over time to be used in the computations. Efficacy was measured by comparing whether the correct condition was included in the differential diagnosis generated by clinicians before using the software ( unaided ), versus after use of the DDSS ( aided ). RESULTS: The 26 clinicians demonstrated a significant reduction in diagnostic errors following introduction of the software, from 28% errors while unaided to 15% using decision support (p \u3c 0.0001). Improvement was greatest for emergency medicine physicians (p = 0.013) and clinicians in practice for less than 10 years (p = 0.012). This error reduction occurred despite the fact that testers employed an open book approach to generate their initial lists of potential diagnoses, spending an average of 8.6 min using printed and electronic sources of medical information before using the diagnostic software. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that decision support can reduce diagnostic errors and improve use of relevant information by generalists. Such assistance could potentially help relieve the shortage of experts in pediatric rheumatology and similarly underserved specialties by improving generalists\u27 ability to evaluate and diagnose patients presenting with musculoskeletal complaints. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT02205086

Resistance to Wheat streak mosaic virus identified in synthetic wheat lines

Citation: Shoup Rupp, J. L., Simon, Z. G., Gillett-Walker, B., & Fellers, J. P. (2014). Resistance to Wheat streak mosaic virus identified in synthetic wheat lines. Retrieved from http://krex.ksu.eduWheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV) is an important pathogen in wheat that causes significant yield losses each year. WSMV is typically controlled using cultural practices such as the removal of volunteer wheat. Genetic resistance is limited. Until recently, no varieties have been available with major resistance genes to WSMV. Two resistance genes have been derived from Thinopyrum intermedium through chromosome engineering, while a third gene was transferred from bread wheat through classical breeding. New sources of resistance are needed and synthetic wheat lines provide a means of accessing genetic variability in wheat progenitors. A collection of wheat synthetic lines was screened for WSMV resistance. Four lines, 07-SYN-27, -106, -164, and -383 had significant levels of resistance. Resistance was effective at 18 °C and virus accumulation was similar to the resistant control, WGGRC50 containing Wsm1. At 25 °C, resistance was no longer effective and virus accumulation was similar to the susceptible control, Tomahawk

Retardation of arsenic transport through a Pleistocene aquifer

Groundwater drawn daily from shallow alluvial sands by millions of wells over large areas of south and southeast Asia exposes an estimated population of over a hundred million people to toxic levels of arsenic1. Holocene aquifers are the source of widespread arsenic poisoning across the region2, 3. In contrast, Pleistocene sands deposited in this region more than 12,000 years ago mostly do not host groundwater with high levels of arsenic. Pleistocene aquifers are increasingly used as a safe source of drinking water4 and it is therefore important to understand under what conditions low levels of arsenic can be maintained. Here we reconstruct the initial phase of contamination of a Pleistocene aquifer near Hanoi, Vietnam. We demonstrate that changes in groundwater flow conditions and the redox state of the aquifer sands induced by groundwater pumping caused the lateral intrusion of arsenic contamination more than 120 metres from a Holocene aquifer into a previously uncontaminated Pleistocene aquifer. We also find that arsenic adsorbs onto the aquifer sands and that there is a 16–20-fold retardation in the extent of the contamination relative to the reconstructed lateral movement of groundwater over the same period. Our findings suggest that arsenic contamination of Pleistocene aquifers in south and southeast Asia as a consequence of increasing levels of groundwater pumping may have been delayed by the retardation of arsenic transport.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF grant EAR09-11557)Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (Grant NAFOSTED 105-09-59-09 to CETASD, the Centre for Environmental Technology and Sustainable Development (Vietnam))National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS grant P42 ES010349)National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS grant P42 ES016454

What Have Long-Term Field Studies Taught Us About Population Dynamics?

Long-term studies have been crucial to the advancement of population biology, especially our understanding of population dynamics. We argue that this progress arises from three key characteristics of long-term research. First, long-term data are necessary to observe the heterogeneity that drives most population processes. Second, long-term studies often inherently lead to novel insights. Finally, long-term field studies can serve as model systems for population biology, allowing for theory and methods to be tested under well-characterized conditions. We illustrate these ideas in three long-term field systems that have made outsized contributions to our understanding of population ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. We then highlight three emerging areas to which long-term field studies are well positioned to contribute in the future: ecological forecasting, genomics, and macrosystems ecology. Overcoming the obstacles associated with maintaining long-term studies requires continued emphasis on recognizing the benefits of such studies to ensure that long-term research continues to have a substantial impact on elucidating population biology

A model of feedback control for the charge-balanced suppression of epileptic seizures

Here we present several refinements to a model of feedback control for the suppression of epileptic seizures. We utilize a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) model of the human cortex. First, we verify the strong convergence of numerical solutions to this model, paying special attention to the sharp spatial changes that occur at electrode edges. This allows us to choose appropriate step sizes for our simulations; because the spatial step size must be small relative to the size of an electrode in order to resolve its electrical behavior, we are able to include a more detailed electrode profile in the simulation. Then, based on evidence that the mean soma potential is not the variable most closely related to the measurement of a cortical surface electrode, we develop a new model for this. The model is based on the currents flowing in the cortex and is used for a simulation of feedback control. The simulation utilizes a new control algorithm incorporating the total integral of the applied electrical potential. Not only does this succeed in suppressing the seizure-like oscillations, but it guarantees that the applied signal will be charge-balanced and therefore unlikely to cause cortical damage

A continuous mapping of sleep states through association of EEG with a mesoscale cortical model

Here we show that a mathematical model of the human sleep cycle can be used to obtain a detailed description of electroencephalogram (EEG) sleep stages, and we discuss how this analysis may aid in the prediction and prevention of seizures during sleep. The association between EEG data and the cortical model is found via locally linear embedding (LLE), a method of dimensionality reduction. We first show that LLE can distinguish between traditional sleep stages when applied to EEG data. It reliably separates REM and non-REM sleep and maps the EEG data to a low-dimensional output space where the sleep state changes smoothly over time. We also incorporate the concept of strongly connected components and use this as a method of automatic outlier rejection for EEG data. Then, by using LLE on a hybrid data set containing both sleep EEG and signals generated from the mesoscale cortical model, we quantify the relationship between the data and the mathematical model. This enables us to take any sample of sleep EEG data and associate it with a position among the continuous range of sleep states provided by the model; we can thus infer a trajectory of states as the subject sleeps. Lastly, we show that this method gives consistent results for various subjects over a full night of sleep and can be done in real time

The safety of over-the-counter niacin. A randomized placebo-controlled trial [ISRCTN18054903]

BACKGROUND: Niacin is widely available over the counter (OTC). We sought to determine the safety of 500 mg immediate release niacin, when healthy individuals use them as directed. METHODS: 51 female and 17 male healthy volunteers (mean age 27 years SD 4.4) participated in a randomized placebo-controlled blinded trial of a single dose of an OTC, immediate-release niacin 500 mg (n = 33), or a single dose of placebo (n = 35) on an empty stomach. The outcomes measured were self-reported incidence of flushing and other adverse effects. RESULTS: 33 volunteers on niacin (100%) and 1 volunteer on placebo (3%) flushed (relative risk 35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.8–194.7). Mean time to flushing on niacin was 18.2 min (95% CI: 12.7–23.6); mean duration of flushing was 75.4 min (95% CI: 62.5–88.2). Other adverse effects occurred commonly in the niacin group: chills (51.5% vs. 0%, P < .0001), generalized pruritus (75% vs. 0%, P = <.001), gastrointestinal upset (30% vs. 3%, P = .005), and cutaneous tingling (30% vs. 0%, P = <.001). Six participants did not tolerate the adverse effects of niacin and 3 required medical attention. CONCLUSION: Clinicians counseling patients about niacin should alert patients not only about flushing but also about gastrointestinal symptoms, the most severe in this study. They should not trust that patients would receive information about these side effects or their prevention (with aspirin) from the OTC packet insert

Estimating Distribution of Hidden Objects with Drones: From Tennis Balls to Manatees

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or drones, have been used widely in military applications, but more recently civilian applications have emerged (e.g., wildlife population monitoring, traffic monitoring, law enforcement, oil and gas pipeline threat detection). UAV can have several advantages over manned aircraft for wildlife surveys, including reduced ecological footprint, increased safety, and the ability to collect high-resolution geo-referenced imagery that can document the presence of species without the use of a human observer. We illustrate how geo-referenced data collected with UAV technology in combination with recently developed statistical models can improve our ability to estimate the distribution of organisms. To demonstrate the efficacy of this methodology, we conducted an experiment in which tennis balls were used as surrogates of organisms to be surveyed. We used a UAV to collect images of an experimental field with a known number of tennis balls, each of which had a certain probability of being hidden. We then applied spatially explicit occupancy models to estimate the number of balls and created precise distribution maps. We conducted three consecutive surveys over the experimental field and estimated the total number of balls to be 328 (95%CI: 312, 348). The true number was 329 balls, but simple counts based on the UAV pictures would have led to a total maximum count of 284. The distribution of the balls in the field followed a simulated environmental gradient. We also were able to accurately estimate the relationship between the gradient and the distribution of balls. Our experiment demonstrates how this technology can be used to create precise distribution maps in which discrete regions of the study area are assigned a probability of presence of an object. Finally, we discuss the applicability and relevance of this experimental study to the case study of Florida manatee distribution at power plants

Understanding patient acceptance and refusal of HIV testing in the emergency department

<p>ABSTRACT</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite high rates of patient satisfaction with emergency department (ED) HIV testing, acceptance varies widely. It is thought that patients who decline may be at higher risk for HIV infection, thus we sought to better understand patient acceptance and refusal of ED HIV testing.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In-depth interviews with fifty ED patients (28 accepters and 22 decliners of HIV testing) in three ED HIV testing programs that serve vulnerable urban populations in northern California.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Many factors influenced the decision to accept ED HIV testing, including curiosity, reassurance of negative status, convenience, and opportunity. Similarly, a number of factors influenced the decision to decline HIV testing, including having been tested recently, the perception of being at low risk for HIV infection due to monogamy, abstinence or condom use, and wanting to focus on the medical reason for the ED visit. Both accepters and decliners viewed ED HIV testing favorably and nearly all participants felt comfortable with the testing experience, including the absence of counseling. While many participants who declined an ED HIV test had logical reasons, some participants also made clear that they would prefer not to know their HIV status rather than face psychosocial consequences such as loss of trust in a relationship or disclosure of status in hospital or public health records.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Testing for HIV in the ED as for any other health problem reduces barriers to testing for some but not all patients. Patients who decline ED HIV testing may have rational reasons, but there are some patients who avoid HIV testing because of psychosocial ramifications. While ED HIV testing is generally acceptable, more targeted approaches to testing are necessary for this subgroup.</p