A quantum theory account of order effects and conjunction fallacies in political judgments

Are our everyday judgments about the world around us normative? Decades of research in the judgment and decision-making literature suggest the answer is no. If people's judgments do not follow normative rules, then what rules if any do they follow? Quantum probability theory is a promising new approach to modeling human behavior that is at odds with normative, classical rules. One key advantage of using quantum theory is that it explains multiple types of judgment errors using the same basic machinery, unifying what have previously been thought of as disparate phenomena. In this article, we test predictions from quantum theory related to the co-occurrence of two classic judgment phenomena, order effects and conjunction fallacies, using judgments about real-world events (related to the U.S. presidential primaries). We also show that our data obeys two a priori and parameter free constraints derived from quantum theory. Further, we examine two factors that moderate the effects, cognitive thinking style (as measured by the Cognitive Reflection Test) and political ideology

Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Maternal and perinatal outcomes after bariatric surgery: a spanish multicenter study

The final publication is avaliable at Springer Link[Abstract] Background. Bariatric surgery (BS) has become more frequent among women of child-bearing age. Data regarding the underlying maternal and perinatal risks are scarce. The objective of this nationwide study is to evaluate maternal and perinatal outcomes after BS. Methods. We performed a retrospective observational study of 168 pregnancies in 112 women who underwent BS in 10 tertiary hospitals in Spain over a 15-year period. Maternal and perinatal outcomes, including gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), pregnancy-associated hypertensive disorders (PAHD), pre-term birth cesarean deliveries, small and large for gestational age births (SGA, LGA), still births, and neonatal deaths, were evaluated. Results were further compared according to the type of BS performed: restrictive techniques (vertical-banded gastroplasty, sleeve gastrectomy, and gastric banding), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), and biliopancreatic diversion (BPD). Results. GDM occurred in five (3 %) pregnancies and there were no cases of PAHD. Women whose pregnancies occurred before 1 year after BS had a higher pre-gestational body mass index (BMI) than those who got pregnant 1 year after BS (34.6 ± 7.7 vs 30.4 ± 5.3 kg/m2, p = 0.007). In pregnancies occurring during the first year after BS, a higher rate of stillbirths was observed compared to pregnancies occurring after this period of time (35.5 vs 16.8 %, p = 0.03). Women who underwent BPD delivered a higher rate of SGA babies than women with RYGB or restrictive procedures (34.8, 12.7, and 8.3 %, respectively). Conclusions. Pregnancy should be scheduled at least 1 year after BS. Malabsorptive procedures are associated to a higher rate of SGA births

Psychological Determinants of Consumer Acceptance of Personalised Nutrition in 9 European Countries

YesObjective: To develop a model of the psychological factors which predict people’s intention to adopt personalised nutrition. Potential determinants of adoption included perceived risk and benefit, perceived self-efficacy, internal locus of control and health commitment. Methods: A questionnaire, developed from exploratory study data and the existing theoretical literature, and including validated psychological scales was administered to N = 9381 participants from 9 European countries (Germany, Greece, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, the UK, and Norway). Results: Structural equation modelling indicated that the greater participants’ perceived benefits to be associated with personalised nutrition, the more positive their attitudes were towards personalised nutrition, and the greater their intention to adopt it. Higher levels of nutrition self-efficacy were related to more positive attitudes towards, and a greater expressed intention to adopt, personalised nutrition. Other constructs positively impacting attitudes towards personalised nutrition included more positive perceptions of the efficacy of regulatory control to protect consumers (e.g. in relation to personal data protection), higher self-reported internal health locus of control, and health commitment. Although higher perceived risk had a negative relationship with attitude and an inverse relationship with perceived benefit, its effects on attitude and intention to adopt personalised nutrition was less influential than perceived benefit. The model was stable across the different European countries, suggesting that psychological factors determining adoption of personalised nutrition have generic applicability across different European countries. Conclusion: The results suggest that transparent provision of information about potential benefits, and protection of consumers’ personal data is important for adoption, delivery of public health benefits, and commercialisation of personalised nutrition.This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement n u 265494 (http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/home_en.html). Food4Me is the acronym of the project ‘‘Personalised nutrition: an integrated analysis of opportunities and challenges’’ (http://www.food4me.org/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Weight Loss and Mortality in Overweight and Obese Cancer Survivors: A Systematic Review

Background Excess adiposity is a risk factor for poorer cancer survival, but there is uncertainty over whether losing weight reduces the risk. We conducted a critical review of the literature examining weight loss and mortality in overweight or obese cancer survivors. Methods We systematically searched PubMed and EMBASE for articles reporting associations between weight loss and mortality (cancer-specific or all-cause) in overweight/obese patients with obesity-related cancers. Where available, data from the same studies on non-overweight patients were compared. Results Five articles describing observational studies in breast cancer survivors were included. Four studies reported a positive association between weight loss and mortality in overweight/obese survivors, and the remaining study observed no significant association. Results were similar for non-overweight survivors. Quality assessment indicated high risk of bias across studies. Conclusions There is currently a lack of observational evidence that weight loss improves survival for overweight and obese cancer survivors. However, the potential for bias in these studies is considerable and the results likely reflect the consequences of disease-related rather than intentional weight loss. There is a need for stronger study designs, incorporating measures of intentionality of weight loss, and extended to other cancers

A common haplotype lowers PU.1 expression in myeloid cells and delays onset of Alzheimer's disease

A genome-wide survival analysis of 14,406 Alzheimer's disease (AD) cases and 25,849 controls identified eight previously reported AD risk loci and 14 novel loci associated with age at onset. Linkage disequilibrium score regression of 220 cell types implicated the regulation of myeloid gene expression in AD risk. The minor allele of rs1057233 (G), within the previously reported CELF1 AD risk locus, showed association with delayed AD onset and lower expression of SPI1 in monocytes and macrophages. SPI1 encodes PU.1, a transcription factor critical for myeloid cell development and function. AD heritability was enriched within the PU.1 cistrome, implicating a myeloid PU.1 target gene network in AD. Finally, experimentally altered PU.1 levels affected the expression of mouse orthologs of many AD risk genes and the phagocytic activity of mouse microglial cells. Our results suggest that lower SPI1 expression reduces AD risk by regulating myeloid gene expression and cell function

Appeals to evidence for the resolution of wicked problems: the origins and mechanisms of evidentiary bias

Wicked policy problems are often said to be characterized by their ‘intractability’, whereby appeals to evidence are unable to provide policy resolution. Advocates for ‘Evidence Based Policy’ (EBP) often lament these situations as representing the misuse of evidence for strategic ends, while critical policy studies authors counter that policy decisions are fundamentally about competing values, with the (blind) embrace of technical evidence depoliticizing political decisions. This paper aims to help resolve these conflicts and, in doing so, consider how to address this particular feature of problem wickedness. Specifically the paper delineates two forms of evidentiary bias that drive intractability, each of which is reflected by contrasting positions in the EBP debates: ‘technical bias’ - referring to invalid uses of evidence; and ‘issue bias’ - referring to how pieces of evidence direct policy agendas to particular concerns. Drawing on the fields of policy studies and cognitive psychology, the paper explores the ways in which competing interests and values manifest in these forms of bias, and shape evidence utilization through different mechanisms. The paper presents a conceptual framework reflecting on how the nature of policy problems in terms of their complexity, contestation, and polarization can help identify the potential origins and mechanisms of evidentiary bias leading to intractability in some wicked policy debates. The discussion reflects on whether being better informed about such mechanisms permit future work that may lead to strategies to mitigate or overcome such intractability in the future

Early chronic kidney disease: diagnosis, management and models of care

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent in many countries, and the costs associated with the care of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are estimated to exceed US$1 trillion globally. The clinical and economic rationale for the design of timely and appropriate health system responses to limit the progression of CKD to ESRD is clear. Clinical care might improve if early-stage CKD with risk of progression to ESRD is differentiated from early-stage CKD that is unlikely to advance. The diagnostic tests that are currently used for CKD exhibit key limitations; therefore, additional research is required to increase awareness of the risk factors for CKD progression. Systems modelling can be used to evaluate the impact of different care models on CKD outcomes and costs. The US Indian Health Service has demonstrated that an integrated, system-wide approach can produce notable benefits on cardiovascular and renal health outcomes. Economic and clinical improvements might, therefore, be possible if CKD is reconceptualized as a part of primary care. This Review discusses which early CKD interventions are appropriate, the optimum time to provide clinical care, and the most suitable model of care to adopt

Does the cognitive reflection test measure cognitive reflection? A mathematical modeling approach

We used a mathematical modeling approach, based on a sample of 2,019 participants, to better understand what the cognitive reflection test (CRT; Frederick In Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19, 25–42, 2005) measures. This test, which is typically completed in less than 10 min, contains three problems and aims to measure the ability or disposition to resist reporting the response that first comes to mind. However, since the test contains three mathematically based problems, it is possible that the test only measures mathematical abilities, and not cognitive reflection. We found that the models that included an inhibition parameter (i.e., the probability of inhibiting an intuitive response), as well as a mathematical parameter (i.e., the probability of using an adequate mathematical procedure), fitted the data better than a model that only included a mathematical parameter. We also found that the inhibition parameter in males is best explained by both rational thinking ability and the disposition toward actively open-minded thinking, whereas in females this parameter was better explained by rational thinking only. With these findings, this study contributes to the understanding of the processes involved in solving the CRT, and will be particularly useful for researchers who are considering using this test in their research