Active learning and optimal climate policy

This paper develops a climate-economy model with uncertainty, irreversibility, and active learning. Whereas previous papers assume learning from one observation per period, or experiment with control variables to gain additional information, this paper considers active learning from investment in monitoring, specifically in improved observations of the global mean temperature. We find that the decision maker invests a significant amount of money in climate research, far more than the current level, in order to increase the rate of learning about climate change. This helps the decision maker make improved decisions. The level of uncertainty decreases more rapidly in the active learning model than in the passive learning model with only temperature observations. As the uncertainty about climate change is smaller, active learning reduces the optimal carbon tax. The greater the risk, the larger is the effect of learning. The method proposed here is applicable to any dynamic control problem where the quality of monitoring is a choice variable, for instance, the precision at which we observe GDP, unemployment, or the quality of education

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

DNA Resection at Chromosome Breaks Promotes Genome Stability by Constraining Non-Allelic Homologous Recombination

DNA double-strand breaks impact genome stability by triggering many of the large-scale genome rearrangements associated with evolution and cancer. One of the first steps in repairing this damage is 5′→3′ resection beginning at the break site. Recently, tools have become available to study the consequences of not extensively resecting double-strand breaks. Here we examine the role of Sgs1- and Exo1-dependent resection on genome stability using a non-selective assay that we previously developed using diploid yeast. We find that Saccharomyces cerevisiae lacking Sgs1 and Exo1 retains a very efficient repair process that is highly mutagenic to genome structure. Specifically, 51% of cells lacking Sgs1 and Exo1 repair a double-strand break using repetitive sequences 12–48 kb distal from the initial break site, thereby generating a genome rearrangement. These Sgs1- and Exo1-independent rearrangements depend partially upon a Rad51-mediated homologous recombination pathway. Furthermore, without resection a robust cell cycle arrest is not activated, allowing a cell with a single double-strand break to divide before repair, potentially yielding multiple progeny each with a different rearrangement. This profusion of rearranged genomes suggests that cells tolerate any dangers associated with extensive resection to inhibit mutagenic pathways such as break-distal recombination. The activation of break-distal recipient repeats and amplification of broken chromosomes when resection is limited raise the possibility that genome regions that are difficult to resect may be hotspots for rearrangements. These results may also explain why mutations in resection machinery are associated with cancer

Rapid Analysis of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Genome Rearrangements by Multiplex Ligation–Dependent Probe Amplification

Aneuploidy and gross chromosomal rearrangements (GCRs) can lead to genetic diseases and the development of cancer. We previously demonstrated that introduction of the repetitive retrotransposon Ty912 onto a nonessential chromosome arm of Saccharomyces cerevisiae led to increased genome instability predominantly due to increased rates of formation of monocentric nonreciprocal translocations. In this study, we adapted Multiplex Ligation–dependent Probe Amplification (MLPA) to analyze a large numbers of these GCRs. Using MLPA, we found that the distribution of translocations induced by the presence of Ty912 in a wild-type strain was nonrandom and that the majority of these translocations were mediated by only six translocation targets on four different chromosomes, even though there were 254 potential Ty-related translocation targets in the S. cerevisiae genome. While the majority of Ty912-mediated translocations resulted from RAD52-dependent recombination, we observed a number of nonreciprocal translocations mediated by RAD52-independent recombination between Ty1 elements. The formation of these RAD52-independent translocations did not require the Rad51 or Rad59 homologous pairing proteins or the Rad1–Rad10 endonuclease complex that processes branched DNAs during recombination. Finally, we found that defects in ASF1-RTT109–dependent acetylation of histone H3 lysine residue 56 (H3K56) resulted in increased accumulation of both GCRs and whole-chromosome duplications, and resulted in aneuploidy that tended to occur simultaneously with GCRs. Overall, we found that MLPA is a versatile technique for the rapid analysis of GCRs and can facilitate the genetic analysis of the pathways that prevent and promote GCRs and aneuploidy

Co expression of SCF and KIT in gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) suggests an autocrine/paracrine mechanism

KIT is a tyrosine kinase receptor expressed by several tumours, which has for specific ligand the stem cell factor (SCF). KIT is the main oncogene in gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs), and gain-of-function KIT mutations are present in 70% of these tumours. The aim of the study was to measure and investigate the mechanisms of KIT activation in 80 KIT-positive GIST patients. KIT activation was quantified by detecting phosphotyrosine residues in Western blotting. SCF production was determined by reverse transcriptase–PCR, ELISA and/or immunohistochemistry. Primary cultures established from three GISTs were also analysed. The results show that KIT activation was detected in all cases, even in absence of KIT mutations. The fraction of activated KIT was not correlated with the mutational status of GISTs. Membrane and soluble isoforms of SCF mRNA were present in all GISTs analysed. Additionally, SCF was also detected in up to 93% of GISTs, and seen to be present within GIST cells. Likewise, the two SCF mRNA isoforms were found to be expressed in GIST-derived primary cultures. Thus, KIT activation in GISTs may in part result from the presence of SCF within the tumours

A Genetic and Structural Study of Genome Rearrangements Mediated by High Copy Repeat Ty1 Elements

Ty elements are high copy number, dispersed repeated sequences in the Saccharomyces cerevisiae genome known to mediate gross chromosomal rearrangements (GCRs). Here we found that introduction of Ty912, a previously identified Ty1 element, onto the non-essential terminal region of the left arm of chromosome V led to a 380-fold increase in the rate of accumulating GCRs in a wild-type strain. A survey of 48 different mutations identified those that either increased or decreased the rate of Ty-mediated GCRs and demonstrated that suppression of Ty-mediated GCRs differs from that of both low copy repeat sequence- and single copy sequence-mediated GCRs. The majority of the Ty912-mediated GCRs observed were monocentric nonreciprocal translocations mediated by RAD52-dependent homologous recombination (HR) between Ty912 and a Ty element on another chromosome arm. The remaining Ty912-mediated GCRs appeared to involve Ty912-mediated formation of unstable dicentric translocation chromosomes that were resolved by one or more Ty-mediated breakage-fusion-bridge cycles. Overall, the results demonstrate that the Ty912-mediated GCR assay is an excellent model for understanding mechanisms and pathways that suppress genome rearrangements mediated by high copy number repeat sequences, as well as the mechanisms by which such rearrangements occur

Preterm birth and small for gestational age in relation to alcohol consumption during pregnancy: stronger associations among vulnerable women? Results from two large Western-European studies

Pfinder M, Kunst AE, Feldmann R, van Eijsden M, Vrijkotte TGM. Preterm birth and small for gestational age in relation to alcohol consumption during pregnancy: stronger associations among vulnerable women? Results from two large Western-European studies. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth. 2013;13(1): 49.BACKGROUND: Inconsistent data on the association between prenatal alcohol exposure and a range of pregnancy outcomes, such as preterm birth (PTB) and small for gestational age (SGA) raise new questions. This study aimed to assess whether the association between low-moderate prenatal alcohol exposure and PTB and SGA differs according to maternal education, maternal mental distress or maternal smoking. METHODS: The Amsterdam Born Children and their Development (ABCD) Study (N=5,238) and the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS) (N=16,301) are both large studies. Women provide information on alcohol intake in early pregnancy, 3 months postpartum and up to 17 years retrospectively. Multivariate logistic regression analyses and stratified regression analyses were performed to examine the association between prenatal alcohol exposure and PTB and SGA, respectively. RESULTS: No association was found between any level of prenatal alcohol exposure (non-daily, daily, non-abstaining) and SGA. The offspring of daily drinkers and non-abstainers had a lower risk of PTB [ABCD: odds ratio (OR) 0.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.13, 0.77; KiGGS: OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.57, 0.99]. Interactions with maternal education, maternal distress or maternal smoking were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Although these results should be interpreted with caution, both studies showed no adverse effects of low-moderate prenatal alcohol exposure on PTB and SGA, not even in the offspring of women who were disadvantaged in terms of low education, high levels of distress, or smoking during pregnancy

Enhanced Migratory Waterfowl Distribution Modeling by Inclusion of Depth to Water Table Data

In addition to being used as a tool for ecological understanding, management and conservation of migratory waterfowl rely heavily on distribution models; yet these models have poor accuracy when compared to models of other bird groups. The goal of this study is to offer methods to enhance our ability to accurately model the spatial distributions of six migratory waterfowl species. This goal is accomplished by creating models based on species-specific annual cycles and introducing a depth to water table (DWT) data set. The DWT data set, a wetland proxy, is a simulated long-term measure of the point either at or below the surface where climate and geological/topographic water fluxes balance. For species occurrences, the USGS' banding bird data for six relatively common species was used. Distribution models are constructed using Random Forest and MaxEnt. Random Forest classification of habitat and non-habitat provided a measure of DWT variable importance, which indicated that DWT is as important, and often more important, to model accuracy as temperature, precipitation, elevation, and an alternative wetland measure. MaxEnt models that included DWT in addition to traditional predictor variables had a considerable increase in classification accuracy. Also, MaxEnt models created with DWT often had higher accuracy when compared with models created with an alternative measure of wetland habitat. By comparing maps of predicted probability of occurrence and response curves, it is possible to explore how different species respond to water table depth and how a species responds in different seasons. The results of this analysis also illustrate that, as expected, all waterfowl species are tightly affiliated with shallow water table habitat. However, this study illustrates that the intensity of affiliation is not constant between seasons for a species, nor is it consistent between species

Comparative molecular biological analysis of membrane transport genes in organisms

Comparative analyses of membrane transport genes revealed many differences in the features of transport homeostasis in eight diverse organisms, ranging from bacteria to animals and plants. In bacteria, membrane-transport systems depend mainly on single genes encoding proteins involved in an ATP-dependent pump and secondary transport proteins that use H+ as a co-transport molecule. Animals are especially divergent in their channel genes, and plants have larger numbers of P-type ATPase and secondary active transporters than do other organisms. The secondary transporter genes have diverged evolutionarily in both animals and plants for different co-transporter molecules. Animals use Na+ ions for the formation of concentration gradients across plasma membranes, dependent on secondary active transporters and on membrane voltages that in turn are dependent on ion transport regulation systems. Plants use H+ ions pooled in vacuoles and the apoplast to transport various substances; these proton gradients are also dependent on secondary active transporters. We also compared the numbers of membrane transporter genes in Arabidopsis and rice. Although many transporter genes are similar in these plants, Arabidopsis has a more diverse array of genes for multi-efflux transport and for response to stress signals, and rice has more secondary transporter genes for carbohydrate and nutrient transport