Fossil fuels in a trillion tonne world.

The useful energy services and energy density value of fossil carbon fuels could be retained for longer timescales into the future if their combustion is balanced by CO2 recapture and storage. We assess the global balance between fossil carbon supply and the sufficiency (size) and capability (technology, security) of candidate carbon stores. A hierarchy of value for extraction-to-storage pairings is proposed, which is augmented by classification of CO2 containment as temporary (100,000 yr). Using temporary stores is inefficient and defers an intergenerational problem. Permanent storage capacity is adequate to technically match current fossil fuel reserves. However, rates of storage creation cannot balance current and expected rates of fossil fuel extraction and CO2 consequences. Extraction of conventional natural gas is uniquely holistic because it creates the capacity to re-inject an equivalent tonnage of carbon for storage into the same reservoir and can re-use gas-extraction infrastructure for storage. By contrast, balancing the extraction of coal, oil, biomass and unconventional fossil fuels requires the engineering and validation of additional carbon storage. Such storage is, so far, unproven in sufficiency

CO2 migration in saline aquifers. Part 1. Capillary trapping under slope and groundwater flow

Injection of carbon dioxide (CO2) into geological formations is widely regarded as a promising tool for reducing global atmospheric CO2 emissions. To evaluate injection scenarios, estimate reservoir capacity and assess leakage risks, an accurate understanding of the subsurface spreading and migration of the plume of mobile CO2 is essential. Here, we present a complete solution to a theoretical model for the subsurface migration of a plume of CO2 due to natural groundwater flow and aquifer slope, and subject to residual trapping. The results show that the interplay of these effects leads to non-trivial behaviour in terms of trapping efficiency. The analytical nature of the solution offers insight into the physics of CO2 migration, and allows for rapid, basin-specific capacity estimation. We use the solution to explore the parameter space via the storage efficiency, a macroscopic measure of plume migration. In a future study, we shall incorporate CO2 dissolution into the migration model and study the importance of dissolution relative to capillary trapping and the impact of dissolution on the storage efficiency.</jats:p