On 'Analytical models for the patchy spread of plant disease'.

Epidemiologists are interested in using models that incorporate the effects of clustering in the spatial pattern of disease on epidemic dynamics. Bolker (1999, Bull. Math. Biol. 61, 849-874) has developed an approach to study such models based on a moment closure assumption. We show that the assumption works above a threshold initial level of disease that depends on the spatial dispersal of the pathogen. We test an alternative assumption and show that it does not have this limitation. We examine the relation between lattice and continuous-medium implementations of the approach

Identifying which septic patients have increased mortality risk using severity scores:a cohort study

Background: Early aggressive therapy can reduce the mortality associated with severe sepsis but this relies on prompt recognition, which is hindered by variation among published severity criteria. Our aim was to test the performance of different severity scores in predicting mortality among a cohort of hospital inpatients with sepsis. Methods: We anonymously linked routine outcome data to a cohort of prospectively identified adult hospital inpatients with sepsis, and used logistic regression to identify associations between mortality and demographic variables, clinical factors including blood culture results, and six sets of severity criteria. We calculated performance characteristics, including area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), of each set of severity criteria in predicting mortality. Results: Overall mortality was 19.4% (124/640) at 30 days after sepsis onset. In adjusted analysis, older age (odds ratio 5.79 (95% CI 2.87-11.70) for ≥80y versus <60y), having been admitted as an emergency (OR 3.91 (1.31-11.70) versus electively), and longer inpatient stay prior to sepsis onset (OR 2.90 (1.41-5.94) for >21d versus <4d), were associated with increased 30 day mortality. Being in a surgical or orthopaedic, versus medical, ward was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.47 (0.27-0.81) and 0.26 (0.11-0.63), respectively). Blood culture results (positive vs. negative) were not significantly association with mortality. All severity scores predicted mortality but performance varied. The CURB65 community-acquired pneumonia severity score had the best performance characteristics (sensitivity 81%, specificity 52%, positive predictive value 29%, negative predictive value 92%, for 30 day mortality), including having the largest AUROC curve (0.72, 95% CI 0.67-0.77). Conclusions: The CURB65 pneumonia severity score outperformed five other severity scores in predicting risk of death among a cohort of hospital inpatients with sepsis. The utility of the CURB65 score for risk-stratifying patients with sepsis in clinical practice will depend on replicating these findings in a validation cohort including patients with sepsis on admission to hospital

Using economic evidence to set healthcare priorities in low-income and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review of methodological frameworks

Policy makers in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) are increasingly looking to develop 'evidence-based' frameworks for identifying priority health interventions. This paper synthesises and appraises the literature on methodological frameworks - which incorporate economic evaluation evidence - for the purpose of setting healthcare priorities in LMICs. A systematic search of Embase, MEDLINE, Econlit and PubMed identified 3968 articles with a further 21 articles identified through manual searching. A total of 36 papers were eligible for inclusion. These covered a wide range of health interventions with only two studies including health systems strengthening interventions related to financing, governance and human resources. A little under half of the studies (39%) included multiple criteria for priority setting, most commonly equity, feasibility and disease severity. Most studies (91%) specified a measure of 'efficiency' defined as cost per disability-adjusted life year averted. Ranking of health interventions using multi-criteria decision analysis and generalised cost-effectiveness were the most common frameworks for identifying priority health interventions. Approximately a third of studies discussed the affordability of priority interventions. Only one study identified priority areas for the release or redeployment of resources. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for local capacity to conduct evaluations (including economic analysis) and empowerment of local decision-makers to act on this evidence

Under pressure: Response urgency modulates striatal and insula activity during decision-making under risk

When deciding whether to bet in situations that involve potential monetary loss or gain (mixed gambles), a subjective sense of pressure can influence the evaluation of the expected utility associated with each choice option. Here, we explored how gambling decisions, their psychophysiological and neural counterparts are modulated by an induced sense of urgency to respond. Urgency influenced decision times and evoked heart rate responses, interacting with the expected value of each gamble. Using functional MRI, we observed that this interaction was associated with changes in the activity of the striatum, a critical region for both reward and choice selection, and within the insula, a region implicated as the substrate of affective feelings arising from interoceptive signals which influence motivational behavior. Our findings bridge current psychophysiological and neurobiological models of value representation and action-programming, identifying the striatum and insular cortex as the key substrates of decision-making under risk and urgency

On Unbounded Composition Operators in L2L^2-Spaces

Fundamental properties of unbounded composition operators in $L^2$-spaces are studied. Characterizations of normal and quasinormal composition operators are provided. Formally normal composition operators are shown to be normal. Composition operators generating Stieltjes moment sequences are completely characterized. The unbounded counterparts of the celebrated Lambert's characterizations of subnormality of bounded composition operators are shown to be false. Various illustrative examples are supplied

Revisiting James March (1991): Whither Exploration and Exploitation

We revisit March’s seminal 1991 article, “Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning”, and analyze the impact it has had on scholarly thinking, providing a comprehensive and structured review of the extensive and diverse research inspired by this publication. We show that although this influence has changed significantly over the years, there are still unexplored opportunities left by this seminal work. Our approach enables us to identify promising directions for future research that reinforce the themes anchored in March’s article. In particular, we call for reconnecting current research to the behavioral roots of this article and uncovering the microfoundations of exploration and exploitation. Our analysis further identifies opportunities for integrating this framework with resource-based theories and considering how exploration and exploitation can be sourced and integrated within and across organizational boundaries. Finally, our analysis reveals prospects for extending the notions of exploration and exploitation to new domains, but we caution that such domains should be clearly delineated. We conclude with a call for further research on the antecedents of exploration and exploitation and for studying their underexplored dimensions

A family history of breast cancer will not predict female early onset breast cancer in a population-based setting

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: An increased risk of breast cancer for relatives of breast cancer patients has been demonstrated in many studies, and having a relative diagnosed with breast cancer at an early age is an indication for breast cancer screening. This indication has been derived from estimates based on data from cancer-prone families or from BRCA1/2 mutation families, and might be biased because BRCA1/2 mutations explain only a small proportion of the familial clustering of breast cancer. The aim of the current study was to determine the predictive value of a family history of cancer with regard to early onset of female breast cancer in a population based setting. METHODS: An unselected sample of 1,987 women with and without breast cancer was studied with regard to the age of diagnosis of breast cancer. RESULTS: The risk of early-onset breast cancer was increased when there were: (1) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first-degree relatives (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.09; 95% CI: 128-7.44), (2) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first or second-degree relatives under the age of 50 (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.36; 95% CI: 1.12-10.08), (3) at least 1 case of female breast cancer under the age of 40 in a first- or second-degree relative (yes/no; HR at age 30: 2.06; 95% CI: 0.83-5.12) and (4) any case of bilateral breast cancer (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.47; 95%: 1.33-9.05). The positive predictive value of having 2 or more of these characteristics was 13% for breast cancer before the age of 70, 11% for breast cancer before the age of 50, and 1% for breast cancer before the age of 30. CONCLUSION: Applying family history related criteria in an unselected population could result in the screening of many women who will not develop breast cancer at an early age

A cost effectiveness and capacity analysis for the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination in Kenya : comparison between Rotarix and RotaTeq vaccines

Background Diarrhoea is an important cause of death in the developing world, and rotavirus is the single most important cause of diarrhoea associated mortality. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are available to prevent rotavirus disease. This analysis was undertaken to aid the decision in Kenya as to which vaccine to choose when introducing rotavirus vaccination. Methods Cost-effectiveness modelling, using national and sentinel surveillance data, and an impact assessment on the cold chain. Results The median estimated incidence of rotavirus disease in Kenya was 3015 outpatient visits, 279 hospitalisations and 65 deaths per 100,000 children under five years of age per year. Cumulated over the first five years of life vaccination was predicted to prevent 34% of the outpatient visits, 31% of the hospitalizations and 42% of the deaths. The estimated prevented costs accumulated over five years totalled US$1,782,761 (direct and indirect costs) with an associated 48,585 DALYs. From a societal perspective Rotarix had a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$142 per DALY (US$5 for the full course of two doses) and RotaTeq US$288 per DALY ($10.5 for the full course of three doses). RotaTeq will have a bigger impact on the cold chain compared to Rotarix. Conclusion Vaccination against rotavirus disease is cost-effective for Kenya irrespective of the vaccine. Of the two vaccines Rotarix was the preferred choice due to a better cost-effectiveness ratio, the presence of a vaccine vial monitor, the requirement of fewer doses and less storage space, and proven thermo-stability

The Effective Fragment Molecular Orbital Method for Fragments Connected by Covalent Bonds

We extend the effective fragment molecular orbital method (EFMO) into treating fragments connected by covalent bonds. The accuracy of EFMO is compared to FMO and conventional ab initio electronic structure methods for polypeptides including proteins. Errors in energy for RHF and MP2 are within 2 kcal/mol for neutral polypeptides and 6 kcal/mol for charged polypeptides similar to FMO but obtained two to five times faster. For proteins, the errors are also within a few kcal/mol of the FMO results. We developed both the RHF and MP2 gradient for EFMO. Compared to ab initio, the EFMO optimized structures had an RMSD of 0.40 and 0.44 {\AA} for RHF and MP2, respectively.Comment: Revised manuscrip

Superpulsed low-level laser therapy protects skeletal muscle of mdx mice against damage, inflammation and morphological changes delaying dystrophy progression.

Aim: To evaluate the effects of preventive treatment with low-level laser therapy (LLLT) on progression of dystrophy in mdx mice. Methods: Ten animals were randomly divided into 2 experimental groups treated with superpulsed LLLT (904 nm, 15 mW, 700 Hz, 1 J) or placebo-LLLT at one point overlying the tibialis anterior muscle (bilaterally) 5 times per week for 14 weeks (from 6th to 20th week of age). Morphological changes, creatine kinase (CK) activity and mRNA gene expression were assessed in animals at 20th week of age. Results: Animals treated with LLLT showed very few morphological changes in skeletal muscle, with less atrophy and fibrosis than animals treated with placebo-LLLT. CK was significantly lower (p = 0.0203) in animals treated with LLLT (864.70 U.l−1, SEM 226.10) than placebo (1708.00 U.l−1, SEM 184.60). mRNA gene expression of inflammatory markers was significantly decreased by treatment with LLLT (p<0.05): TNF-α (placebo-control = 0.51 µg/µl [SEM 0.12], - LLLT = 0.048 µg/µl [SEM 0.01]), IL-1β (placebo-control = 2.292 µg/µl [SEM 0.74], - LLLT = 0.12 µg/µl [SEM 0.03]), IL-6 (placebo-control = 3.946 µg/µl [SEM 0.98], - LLLT = 0.854 µg/µl [SEM 0.33]), IL-10 (placebo-control = 1.116 µg/µl [SEM 0.22], - LLLT = 0.352 µg/µl [SEM 0.15]), and COX-2 (placebo-control = 4.984 µg/µl [SEM 1.18], LLLT = 1.470 µg/µl [SEM 0.73]). Conclusion: Irradiation of superpulsed LLLT on successive days five times per week for 14 weeks decreased morphological changes, skeletal muscle damage and inflammation in mdx mice. This indicates that LLLT has potential to decrease progression of Duchenne muscular dystrophy