Environmental-mechanistic modelling of the impact of global change on human zoonotic disease emergence: A case study of Lassa fever

1. Human infectious diseases are a significant threat to global human health and economies (e.g., Ebola, SARs), with the majority of infectious diseases having an animal source (zoonotic). Despite their importance, the lack of a quantitative predictive framework hampers our understanding of how spill-overs of zoonotic infectious diseases into the human population will be impacted by global environmental stressors. 2. Here, we create an environmental-mechanistic model for understanding the impact of global change on the probability of zoonotic disease reservoir host-human spill-over events. As a case study, we focus on Lassa fever virus (LAS). We firstly quantify the spatial determinants of LAS outbreaks, including the phylogeographic distribution of its reservoir host Natal multimammate rat (Mastomys natalensis) (LAS host). Secondly, we use these determinants to inform our environmental-mechanistic model to estimate present day LAS spill-over events and the predicted impact of climate change, human population growth, and land use by 2070. 3. We find phylogeographic evidence to suggest that LAS is confined to only one clade of LAS host (Western clade Mastomys natalensis), and that the probability of its occurrence was a major determinant of the spatial variation in LAS historical outbreaks (69.8%), along with human population density (20.4%). Our estimates for present day LAS spill-over events from our environmental-mechanistic model were consistent with observed patterns, and we predict an increase in events per year by 2070 from 195,125 to 406,725 within the LAS endemic western African region. Of the component drivers, climate change and human population growth are predicted to have the largest effects by increasing landscape suitability for the host and human-host contact rates, while land use change has only a weak impact on the number of future events. 4. LAS spill-over events did not respond uniformly to global environmental stressors, and we suggest that understanding the impact of global change on zoonotic infectious disease emergence requires an understanding of how reservoir host species respond to environmental change. Our environmental-mechanistic modelling methodology provides a novel generalizable framework to understand the impact of global change on the spill-over of zoonotic diseases

Ebola virus disease in West Africa — the first 9 Months of the epidemic and forward projections

BACKGROUND On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern." METHODS By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa - Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14. RESULTS The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R-0) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. CONCLUSIONS These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months

Correlates of school dropout and absenteeism among adolescent girls from marginalized community in north Karnataka, south India.

Secondary education among lower caste adolescent girls living in rural Karnataka, South India, is characterized by high rates of school drop-out and absenteeism. A cross-sectional baseline survey (N=2275) was conducted in 2014 as part of a cluster-randomized control trial among adolescent girls (13-14 year) and their families from marginalized communities in two districts of north Karnataka. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. Overall, 8.7% girls reported secondary school dropout and 8.1% reported frequent absenteeism (past month). In adjusted analyses, economic factors (household poverty; girls' work-related migration), social norms and practices (child marriage; value of girls' education), and school-related factors (poor learning environment and bullying/harassment at school) were associated with an increased odds of school dropout and absenteeism. Interventions aiming to increase secondary school retention among marginalized girls may require a multi-level approach, with synergistic components that address social, structural and economic determinants of school absenteeism and dropout

Anthelminthic treatment receipt and its predictors in Lake Victoria fishing communities, Uganda: Intervention coverage results from the LaVIISWA cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) is a cornerstone of control of parasitic helminths. In schistosomiasis-endemic areas with >50% of school-aged children infected, community-wide MDA with praziquantel is recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO), with target coverage of >75%. Using data from a cluster-randomised trial of MDA treatment strategies, we aimed to describe the proportion of eligible residents who received MDA and predictors of treatment receipt, and to assess associations with helminth prevalence. METHODS: In the Koome islands of Lake Victoria, Uganda, where baseline schistosomiasis prevalence (by single stool sample, Kato Katz) was 52% overall (all ages) and 67% among school-aged children, we conducted a cluster-randomised trial of community-wide, intensive MDA (quarterly single-dose praziquantel 40mg/kg; triple-dose albendazole 400mg) versus standard, Uganda government intervention (annual single-dose praziquantel 40mg/kg; 6-monthly single-dose albendazole). Twenty-six fishing villages were randomised, 13 per trial arm, for four years. At each treatment round, praziquantel treatment and the first dose of albendazole treatment were directly observed by the study team, registers of village residents were updated and the proportion receiving treatment among those eligible recorded. RESULTS: During the four-year MDA, at each treatment round an average of 13,382 people were registered in the 26 villages (7,153 and 6,229 in standard and intensive intervention villages, respectively). Overall, the proportion of those eligible receiving praziquantel was lower than for albendazole (60% versus 65%), particularly in the standard arm (61% versus 71%) compared to the intensive arm (60% versus 62%). Albendazole receipt was lower when given concurrently with praziquantel. Absence was the commonest reason for non-receipt of treatment (81% albendazole, 77% praziquantel), followed by refusal (14% albendazole, 18% praziquantel). Proportions receiving treatment were lowest among school-aged children, but did not differ by sex. Longitudinal analysis of a subgroup of residents who did not move during the study period found that persistent non-receipt of treatment in this subgroup was rare. Refusal to receive treatment was highest among adults and more common among females. CONCLUSION: In schistosomiasis high-risk communities, a combination of approaches to increasing treatment coverage, such as extended periods of treatment delivery, and the provision of incentives, may be required to achieve WHO targets

Promising outcomes of a national programme for the prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Addis Ababa: a retrospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission (PMTCT) is still the most effective intervention in combating new HIV infections. In 2008, revised national PMTCT guidelines that incorporated new policies on HIV counselling and testing, antiretroviral prophylaxis regimen and infant HIV diagnosis came into effect in Ethiopia. In the present study we have examined trends in PMTCT service utilization and assessed the rate of MTCT in relation to policy changes in the national PMTCT programme.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Reports from February 2004 to August 2009 were reviewed in 10 sub-cities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The data was collected from May to October 2009.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The proportion of women who received HIV counselling and testing among new antenatal care attendees increased from 50.7% (95% CI 50.2-51.2) in 2007 to 84.5% (95% CI 84.1-84.9) in 2009 following the shift to routine opt-out testing. Nevertheless, in 2009 only 53.7% of the positive women and 40.7% of their infants received antiretroviral prophylaxis. The HIV prevalence among antenatal attendees decreased significantly from 10.5% in 2004 to 4.6% in 2009 in parallel to the increased number of women being tested. The HIV positive women were over 18 times (RR 18.5, p < 0.0001) more likely to be referred for treatment, care and support in 2009 than in 2004. The proportion of partners tested for HIV decreased by 14% in 2009 compared to 2004, although the absolute number was increasing year by year. Only 10.6% (95% CI 9.9-11.2) of the HIV positive women completed their follow up to infant HIV testing. The cumulative probability of HIV infection among babies on single dose nevirapine regimen who were tested at >=18 months was 15.0% (95% CI 9.8-22.1) in 2007, whereas it was 8.2% (95% CI 5.55-11.97) among babies on Zidovudine regimen who were tested at >=45 days in 2009.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The paper demonstrates trends in PMTCT service utilization in relation to changing policy. There is marked improvement in HIV counselling and testing service utilization, especially after the policy shift to routine opt-out testing. However, despite policy changes, the ARV prophylaxis uptake, the loss to follow up and the partner testing have remained unchanged across the years. This should be a matter of immediate concern and a topic for further research.</p

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Impact of BCG revaccination on the response to unrelated vaccines in a Ugandan adolescent birth cohort: randomised controlled trial protocol C for the 'POPulation differences in VACcine responses' (POPVAC) programme.

INTRODUCTION: There is evidence that BCG immunisation may protect against unrelated infectious illnesses. This has led to the postulation that administering BCG before unrelated vaccines may enhance responses to these vaccines. This might also model effects of BCG on unrelated infections. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: To test this hypothesis, we have designed a randomised controlled trial of BCG versus no BCG immunisation to determine the effect of BCG on subsequent unrelated vaccines, among 300 adolescents (aged 13-17 years) from a Ugandan birth cohort. Our schedule will comprise three main immunisation days (week 0, week 4 and week 28): BCG (or no BCG) revaccination at week 0; yellow fever (YF-17D), oral typhoid (Ty21a) and human papillomavirus (HPV) prime at week 4; and HPV boost and tetanus/diphtheria (Td) boost at week 28. Primary outcomes are anti-YF-17D neutralising antibody titres, Salmonella typhi lipopolysaccharide-specific IgG concentration, IgG specific for L1-proteins of HPV-16/HPV-18 and tetanus and diphtheria toxoid-specific IgG concentration, all assessed at 4 weeks after immunisation with YF, Ty21a, HPV and Td, respectively. Secondary analyses will determine effects on correlates of protective immunity (where recognised correlates exist), on vaccine response waning and on whether there are differential effects on priming versus boosting immunisations. We will also conduct exploratory immunology assays among subsets of participants to further characterise effects of BCG revaccination on vaccine responses. Further analyses will assess which life course exposures influence vaccine responses in adolescence. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained from relevant Ugandan and UK ethics committees. Results will be shared with Uganda Ministry of Health, relevant district councils, community leaders and study participants. Further dissemination will be done through conference proceedings and publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN10482904

A novel framework to study the effect of tree architectural traits on stemflow yield and its consequences for soil-water dynamics

International audienceA novel experimental approach and numerical framework are proposed to study the effect of tree architectural traits on stemflow yield and its effects on soil-water dynamics. The framework includes a data mining workflowemploying information from two experimental steps: (i) evaluation of the effect of tree aboveground architecture on stemflow yield and (ii) quantification of specific parameters for soil-water dynamics with and withoutstemflow. We studied double-funnelling (stemflow and root-induced preferential flow) under three sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus L.) trees growing on a slope in Scotland during the summer season and measured architecturaltraits. Stemflow yield ranged from 1.3 to 3.8% of the incident rainfall, with funnelling ratios of between 2.2 ± 2.1 and 5.2 ± 3.9. Double-funnelling to a depth of up to 400 mm beneath the soil surface occurred as matrix flow and was significantly and positively correlated with the vertical root distribution. Soil-water dynamics were distinctly different with and without stemflow. Our framework revealed that the number of tree branches, their insertion angle, leaf number, and stem basal diameter influenced stemflow yield within rainfall thresholds of 1.1 and 3.5 mm d-1. The framework also showed that stemflow yield had a negative impact on soil matric suction, while air temperature was the most influential covariate affecting soil-water dynamics, likely due to its strong correlation to evapotranspiration during the summer season. In spite of the study limitations, such as small sample size and differences between individuals, we show that the proposed framework and experimental approach can contribute to our knowledge of how stemflow generated aboveground triggers major responses in soil-water dynamics belowgroun

Utility of total lymphocyte count as a surrogate marker for CD4 counts in HIV-1 infected children in Kenya

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In resource-limited settings, such as Kenya, access to CD4 testing is limited. Therefore, evaluation of less expensive laboratory diagnostics is urgently needed to diagnose immuno-suppression in children.</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>To evaluate utility of total lymphocyte count (TLC) as surrogate marker for CD4 count in HIV-infected children.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a hospital based retrospective study conducted in three HIV clinics in Kisumu and Nairobi in Kenya. TLC, CD4 count and CD4 percent data were abstracted from hospital records of 487 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-infected children aged 1 month - 12 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>TLC and CD4 count were positively correlated (r = 0.66, p < 0.001) with highest correlation seen in children with severe immuno-suppression (r = 0.72, p < 0.001) and children >59 months of age (r = 0.68, p < 0.001). Children were considered to have severe immuno-suppression if they met the following WHO set CD4 count thresholds: age below 12 months (CD4 counts < 1500 cells/mm³), age 12-35 months (CD4 count < 750 cells/mm3), age 36-59 months (CD4 count < 350 cells/mm³, and age above 59 months (CD4 count < 200 cells/mm³). WHO recommended TLC threshold values for severe immuno-suppression of 4000, 3000, 2500 and 2000 cells/mm³for age categories <12, 12-35, 36-59 and >59 months had low sensitivity of 25%, 23%, 33% and 62% respectively in predicting severe immuno-suppression using CD4 count as gold standard. Raising TLC thresholds to 7000, 6000, 4500 and 3000 cells/mm³for each of the stated age categories increased sensitivity to 71%, 64%, 56% and 86%, with positive predictive values of 85%, 61%, 37%, 68% respectively but reduced specificity to 73%, 62%, 54% and 68% with negative predictive values of 54%, 65%, 71% and 87% respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>TLC is positively correlated with absolute CD4 count in children but current WHO age-specific thresholds had low sensitivity to identify severely immunosuppressed Kenyan children. Sensitivity and therefore utility of TLC to identify immuno-suppressed children may be improved by raising the TLC cut off levels across the various age categories.</p