Shape sensitivity of eigenvalues in hydrodynamic stability, with physical interpretation for the flow around a cylinder

The shape gradients of an instability''s growth rate and frequency are derived for an unstable mode calculated from a global stability analysis. These are calculated and interpreted physically for the flow around a cylinder at a Reynolds number of 50. This is a well-known canonical flow, which is often used to discover fundamental behaviour in bluff body flows and to test new numerical techniques. This paper shows that shape deformations affect hydrodynamic oscillations mainly through their influence on the steady base-flow, rather than through their influence on the unsteady feedback mechanism. Deformations that strongly affect the base-flow are shown to strongly affect the frequency and growth rate, as expected. In addition, subtle deformations at the rear of the cylinder are shown to exploit small base-flow changes that have a disproportionately large influence on the growth rate. The physical mechanism behind this is shown to be similar to the well-known phenomenon of ?base bleed?. The method presented in this paper is general and versatile. It provides engineers with gradient information in order to optimize designs systematically. In addition, it provides physical insight, which enables intuitive design changes that would be outside the range of an optimization algorithm or existing geometric parametrization.EPSRC and Dyson Ltd. through ICASE studentship 1522008

Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival in Scotland 1986–2000

We analysed trends in 5-year survival of the 18 commonest cancers in Scotland diagnosed between 1986 and 2000 and followed up to 2004 in each of five deprivation groups based on patients postcode of residence at diagnosis. We estimated relative survival up to 5 years after diagnosis, adjusting for the different background mortality in each deprivation group by age, sex and calendar period. We estimated trends in overall survival and in the deprivation gap in survival up to 2004. Five-year survival improved for all malignancies except bladder cancer and was associated with a widening in the deprivation gap in survival. For 25 of 30 cancer–sex combinations examined, 5-year survival was lower among more deprived patients diagnosed during 1996–2000, and the deprivation gap in survival had widened since 1986–1990 for 15 of these 25 cancers, similar to the trends seen in England and Wales

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival

How Do Police Respond to Stalking? An Examination of the Risk Management Strategies and Tactics Used in a Specialized Anti-Stalking Law Enforcement Unit

How do police respond to and manage complaints of stalking? To answer this question, we conducted a 3-phase study. First, we reviewed the literature to identify risk management tactics used to combat stalking. Second, we asked a group of police officers to review those tactics for completeness and group them into categories reflecting more general risk management strategies. The result was 22 categories of strategies. Finally, we used qualitative methods to evaluate the files of 32 cases referred to the specialized anti-stalking unit of a metropolitan police department. We coded specific risk management tactics and strategies used by police. Results indicated that a median number of 19 specific tactics from 7 general strategies were used to manage risk. Also, the implementation of strategies and tactics reflected specific characteristics of the cases (e.g., perpetrator risk factors, victim vulnerability factors), suggesting that the risk management decisions made by police were indeed strategic in nature. Qualitative analyses indicated that some of the strategies and tactics were more effective than others. We discuss how these findings can be used to understand and use stalking risk management more generally, as well as improve research on the efficacy of risk assessment and management for stalking

The association of cancer survival with four socioeconomic indicators: a longitudinal study of the older population of England and Wales 1981–2000

BACKGROUND: Many studies have found socioeconomic differentials in cancer survival. Previous studies have generally demonstrated poorer cancer survival with decreasing socioeconomic status but mostly used only ecological measures of status and analytical methods estimating simple survival. This study investigate socio-economic differentials in cancer survival using four indicators of socioeconomic status; three individual and one ecological. It uses a relative survival method which gives a measure of excess mortality due to cancer. METHODS: This study uses prospective record linkage data from The Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study for England and Wales. The participants are Longitudinal Study members, recorded at census in 1971 and 1981 and with a primary malignant cancer diagnosed at age 45 or above, between 1981 and 1997, with follow-up until end 2000. The outcome measure is relative survival/excess mortality, compared with age and sex adjusted survival of the general population. Relative survival and Poisson regression analyses are presented, giving models of relative excess mortality, adjusted for covariates. RESULTS: Different socioeconomic indicators detect survival differentials of varying magnitude and definition. For all cancers combined, the four indicators show similar effects. For individual cancers there are differences between indicators. Where there is an association, all indicators show poorer survival with lower socioeconomic status. CONCLUSION: Cancer survival differs markedly by socio-economic status. The commonly used ecological measure, the Carstairs Index, is adequate at demonstrating socioeconomic differentials in survival for combined cancers and some individual cancers. A combination of car access and housing tenure is more sensitive than the ecological Carstairs measure at detecting socioeconomic effects on survival – confirming Carstairs effects where they occur but additionally identifying effects for other cancers. Social class is a relatively weak indicator of survival differentials

Spatial variation in prostate cancer survival in the Northern and Yorkshire region of England using Bayesian relative survival smoothing

Primary Care Trust (PCT) estimates of survival lack robustness as there are small numbers of deaths per year in each area, even when incidence is high. We assess PCT-level spatial variation in prostate cancer survival using Bayesian spatial models of excess mortality. We extracted data on men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1990 and 1999 from the Northern and Yorkshire Cancer Registry and Information Service database. Models were adjusted for age at diagnosis, period of diagnosis and deprivation. All covariates had a significant association with excess mortality; men from more deprived areas, older age at diagnosis and diagnosed in 1990–1994 had higher excess mortality. The unadjusted relative excess risks (RER) of death by PCT ranged from 0.75 to 1.66. After adjustment, areas of high and low excess mortality were smoothed towards the mean, and the RERs ranged from 0.74 to 1.49. Using Bayesian smoothing techniques to model cancer survival by geographic area offers many advantages over traditional methods; estimates in areas with small populations or low incidence rates are stabilised and shrunk towards local and global risk estimates improving reliability and precision, complex models are easily handled and adjustment for covariates can be made