Inherent bounds on forecast accuracy due to observation uncertainty caused by temporal sampling

© Copyright 2015 American Meteorological Society (AMS).Author Affiliations: MARION P. MITTERMAIER (Numerical Modelling, Weather Science, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom). DAVID B. STEPHENSON (Exeter Climate Systems, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom)Synoptic observations are often treated as error-free representations of the true state of the real world. For example, when observations are used to verify numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, forecast-observation differences (the total error) are often entirely attributed to forecast inaccuracy. Such simplification is no longer justifiable for short-lead forecasts made with increasingly accurate higher-resolution models. For example, at least 25% of t + 6 h individual Met Office site-specific (postprocessed) temperature forecasts now typically have total errors of less than 0.2 K, which are comparable to typical instrument measurement errors of around 0.1 K. In addition to instrument errors, uncertainty is introduced by measurements not being taken concurrently with the forecasts. For example, synoptic temperature observations in the United Kingdom are typically taken 10 min before the hour, whereas forecasts are generally extracted as instantaneous values on the hour. This study develops a simple yet robust statistical modeling procedure for assessing how serially correlated subhourly variations limit the forecast accuracy that can be achieved. The methodology is demonstrated by application to synoptic temperature observations sampled every minute at several locations around the United Kingdom. Results show that subhourly variations lead to sizeable forecast errors of 0.16-0.44 K for observations taken 10 min before the forecast issue time. The magnitude of this error depends on spatial location and the annual cycle, with the greater errors occurring in the warmer seasons and at inland sites. This important source of uncertainty consists of a bias due to the diurnal cycle, plus irreducible uncertainty due to unpredictable subhourly variations that fundamentally limit forecast accuracy.NCAR-DT

Stages of development and injury: an epidemiological survey of young children presenting to an emergency department

<p><b>Background:</b> The aim of our study was to use a local (Glasgow, west of Scotland) version of a Canadian injury surveillance programme (CHIRPP) to investigate the relationship between the developmental stage of young (pre-school) children, using age as a proxy, and the occurrence (incidence, nature, mechanism and location) of injuries presenting to a Scottish hospital emergency department, in an attempt to replicate the findings of a recent study in Kingston, Canada.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> We used the Glasgow CHIRPP data to perform two types of analyses. First, we calculated injury rates for that part of the hospital catchment area for which reasonably accurate population denominators were available. Second, we examined detailed injury patterns, in terms of the circumstances, mechanisms, location and types of injury. We compared our findings with those of the Kingston researchers.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> A total of 17,793 injury records for children aged up to 7 years were identified over the period 1997–99. For 1997–2001, 6,188 were used to calculate rates in the west of the city only. Average annual age specific rates per 1000 children were highest in both males and females aged 12–35 months. Apart from the higher rates in Glasgow, the pattern of injuries, in terms of breakdown factors, mechanism, location, context, and nature of injury, were similar in Glasgow and Kingston.</p> <p><b>Conclusion:</b> We replicated in Glasgow, UK, the findings of a Canadian study demonstrating a correlation between the pattern of childhood injuries and developmental stage. Future research should take account of the need to enhance statistical power and explore the interaction between age and potential confounding variables such as socio-economic deprivation. Our findings highlight the importance of designing injury prevention interventions that are appropriate for specific stages of development in children.</p&gt

Magnetic field reversals and galactic dynamos

We argue that global magnetic field reversals similar to those observed in the Milky Way occur quite frequently in mean-field galactic dynamo models that have relatively strong, random, seed magnetic fields that are localized in discrete regions. The number of reversals decreases to zero with reduction of the seed strength, efficiency of the galactic dynamo and size of the spots of the seed field. A systematic observational search for magnetic field reversals in a representative sample of spiral galaxies promises to give valuable information concerning seed magnetic fields and, in this way, to clarify the initial stages of galactic magnetic field evolution

Genetic analysis of cortical thickness and fractional anisotropy of water diffusion in the brain

Objectives: The thickness of the brain’s cortical gray matter (GM) and the fractional anisotropy (FA) of the cerebral white matter (WM) each follow an inverted U-shape trajectory with age. The two measures are positively correlated and may be modulated by common biological mechanisms. We employed four types of genetic analyses to localize individual genes acting pleiotropically upon these phenotypes. Methods: Whole-brain and regional GM thickness and FA values were measured from high-resolution anatomical and diffusion tensor MR images collected from 712, Mexican American participants (438 females, age=47.9±13.2 years) recruited from 73 (9.7±9.3 individuals/family) large families. The significance of the correlation between two traits was estimated using a bivariate genetic correlation analysis. Localization of chromosomal regions that jointly influenced both traits was performed using whole-genome quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis. Gene localization was performed using SNP genotyping on Illumina 1M chip and correlation with leukocyte-based gene-expression analyses. The gene-expressions were measured using the Illumina BeadChip. These data were available for 371 subjects. Results: Significant genetic correlationwas observed amongGMthickness and FA values. Significant logarithm of odds (LOD≥3.0) QTLs were localized within chromosome 15q22–23. More detailed localization reported no significant association (p <5·10−5) for 1565 SNPs located within the QTLs. Post hoc analysis indicated that 40% of the potentially significant (p ≤10−3) SNPs were localized to the related orphan receptor alpha (RORA) and NARG2 genes. A potentially significant association was observed for the rs2456930 polymorphism reported as a significant GWAS finding in Alzheimer’s disease neuroimaging initiative subjects. The expression levels for RORA and ADAM10 genes were significantly (p <0.05) correlated with both FA and GM thickness. NARG2 expressions were significantly correlated with GM thickness (p <0.05) but failed to show a significant correlation (p =0.09) with FA. Discussion: This study identified a novel, significant QTL at 15q22–23. SNP correlation with gene-expression analyses indicated that RORA, NARG2, and ADAM10 jointly influenceGM thickness and WM–FA values

A Multi-Armed Bandit to Smartly Select a Training Set from Big Medical Data

With the availability of big medical image data, the selection of an adequate training set is becoming more important to address the heterogeneity of different datasets. Simply including all the data does not only incur high processing costs but can even harm the prediction. We formulate the smart and efficient selection of a training dataset from big medical image data as a multi-armed bandit problem, solved by Thompson sampling. Our method assumes that image features are not available at the time of the selection of the samples, and therefore relies only on meta information associated with the images. Our strategy simultaneously exploits data sources with high chances of yielding useful samples and explores new data regions. For our evaluation, we focus on the application of estimating the age from a brain MRI. Our results on 7,250 subjects from 10 datasets show that our approach leads to higher accuracy while only requiring a fraction of the training data.Comment: MICCAI 2017 Proceeding

Development and evaluation of a diagnostic cytokine-release assay for Mycobacterium suricattae infection in meerkats (Suricata suricatta)

CITATION: Clarke, C., et al. 2017. Development and evaluation of a diagnostic cytokine-release assay for mycobacterium suricattae infection in meerkats (Suricata suricatta). BMC Veterinary Research, 13:2, doi:10.1186/s12917-016-0927-x.The original publication is available at http://bmcvetres.biomedcentral.comBackground: Sensitive diagnostic tools are necessary for the detection of Mycobacterium suricattae infection in meerkats (Suricata suricatta) in order to more clearly understand the epidemiology of tuberculosis and the ecological consequences of the disease in this species. We therefore aimed to develop a cytokine release assay to measure antigen-specific cell-mediated immune responses of meerkats. Results: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were evaluated for the detection of interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) and IFN-γ inducible protein 10 (IP-10) in meerkat plasma. An IP-10 ELISA was selected to measure the release of this cytokine in whole blood in response to Bovigam® PC-HP Stimulating Antigen, a commercial peptide pool of M. bovis antigens. Using this protocol, captive meerkats with no known M. suricattae exposure (n = 10) were tested and results were used to define a diagnostic cut off value (mean plus 2 standard deviations). This IP-10 release assay (IPRA) was then evaluated in free-living meerkats with known M. suricattae exposure, categorized as having either a low, moderate or high risk of infection with this pathogen. In each category, respectively, 24.7%, 27.3% and 82.4% of animals tested IPRA-positive. The odds of an animal testing positive was 14.0 times greater for animals with a high risk of M. suricattae infection compared to animals with a low risk. Conclusion: These results support the use of this assay as a measure of M. suricattae exposure in meerkat populations. Ongoing longitudinal studies aim to evaluate the value of the IPRA as a diagnostic test of M. suricattae infection in individual animals.http://bmcvetres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12917-016-0927-xPublisher's versio

Building governance and energy efficiency: Mapping the interdisciplinary challenge

Improving the energy efficiency of multi-owned properties (MoPs)—commonly known as apartment or condominium buildings—is central to the achievement of European energy targets. However, little work to date has focused on how to facilitate retrofit in this context. Drawing on interdisciplinary Social Sciences and Humanities expertise in academia, policy and practice, this chapter posits that decision-making processes within MoPs might provide a key to the retrofit challenge. Existing theories or models of decision-making, applied in the MoP context, might help to explain how collective retrofit decisions are taken—or overlooked. Insights from case studies and practitioners are also key. Theories of change might then be employed to develop strategies to facilitate positive retrofit decisions. The chapter maps the issues and sets an agenda for further interdisciplinary research in this novel area

Development and initial validation of the bronchiectasis exacerbation and symptom tool (BEST)

BACKGROUND: Recurrent bronchiectasis exacerbations are related to deterioration of lung function, progression of the disease, impairment of quality of life, and to an increased mortality. Improved detection of exacerbations has been accomplished in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease through the use of patient completed diaries. These tools may enhance exacerbation reporting and identification. The aim of this study was to develop a novel symptom diary for bronchiectasis symptom burden and detection of exacerbations, named the BEST diary. METHODS: Prospective observational study of patients with bronchiectasis conducted at Ninewells Hospital, Dundee. We included patients with confirmed bronchiectasis by computed tomography, who were symptomatic and had at least 1 documented exacerbation of bronchiectasis in the previous 12\u2009months to participate. Symptoms were recorded daily in a diary incorporating cough, sputum volume, sputum colour, dyspnoea, fatigue and systemic disturbance scored from 0 to 26. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients were included in the study. We identified 29 reported (treated exacerbations) and 23 unreported (untreated) exacerbations over 6-month follow-up. The BEST diary score showed a good correlation with the established and validated questionnaires and measures of health status (COPD Assessment Test, r =\u20090.61, p =\u20090.0037, Leicester Cough Questionnaire, r =\u2009-\u20090.52,p =\u20090.0015, St Georges Respiratory Questionnaire, r =\u20090.61,p &lt;\u20090.0001 and 6\u2009min walk test, r =\u2009-\u20090.46,p =\u20090.037). The mean BEST score at baseline was 7.1 points (SD 2.2). The peak symptom score during exacerbation was a mean of 16.4 (3.1), and the change from baseline to exacerbation was a mean of 9.1 points (SD 2.5). Mean duration of exacerbations based on time for a return to baseline symptoms was 15.3\u2009days (SD 5.7). A minimum clinically important difference of 4 points is proposed. CONCLUSIONS: The BEST symptom diary has shown concurrent validity with current health questionnaires and is responsive at onset and recovery from exacerbation. The BEST diary may be useful to detect and characterise exacerbations in bronchiectasis clinical trials

Potentiation of latent inhibition by haloperidol and clozapine is attenuated in Dopamine D2 receptor (Drd-2) deficient mice: Do antipsychotics influence learning to ignore irrelevant stimuli via both Drd-2 and non-Drd-2 mechanisms?

Whether the dopamine Drd-2 receptor is necessary for the behavioural action of antipsychotic drugs is an important question, as Drd-2 antagonism is responsible for their debilitating motor side effects. Using Drd-2 null mice (Drd2 -/-) it has previously been shown that Drd-2 is not necessary for antipsychotic drugs to reverse D-amphetamine disruption of latent inhibition (LI), a behavioural measure of learning to ignore irrelevant stimuli. Weiner's 'two-headed' model indicates that antipsychotics not only reverse LI disruption, 'disrupted LI', but also potentiate LI when low/absent in controls, 'persistent' LI. We investigated whether antipsychotic drugs haloperidol or clozapine potentiated LI in wild-type controls or Drd2 -/-. Both drugs potentiated LI in wild-type but not in Drd2 -/- mice, suggesting moderation of this effect of antipsychotics in the absence of Drd-2. Haloperidol potentiated LI similarly in both Drd1 -/- and wild-type mice, indicating no such moderation in Drd1 -/-. These data suggest that antipsychotic drugs can have either Drd-2 or non-Drd-2 effects on learning to ignore irrelevant stimuli, depending on how the abnormality is produced. Identification of the non-Drd-2 mechanism may help to identify novel non-Drd2 based therapeutic strategies for psychosis

Quantum W-symmetry in AdS_3

It has recently been argued that, classically, massless higher spin theories in AdS_3 have an enlarged W_N-symmetry as the algebra of asymptotic isometries. In this note we provide evidence that this symmetry is realised (perturbatively) in the quantum theory. We perform a one loop computation of the fluctuations for a massless spin $s$ field around a thermal AdS_3 background. The resulting determinants are evaluated using the heat kernel techniques of arXiv:0911.5085. The answer factorises holomorphically, and the contributions from the various spin $s$ fields organise themselves into vacuum characters of the W_N symmetry. For the case of the hs(1,1) theory consisting of an infinite tower of massless higher spin particles, the resulting answer can be simply expressed in terms of (two copies of) the MacMahon function.Comment: 23 pages; v2: References adde